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Market Trend

I am still Long/buy on SPY, a proxy for the S&P500. Although the price remains higher high (Bollinger) band, RSI is still slightly below the 70 mark, at 68.56. If tomorrow's reports on "payrolls and unemployment rate" come in better than expectations I am confident RSI will exceed 70 and signal a sell, supported by a current oversold Stochastic level. Therefore, I am not adding new money at this time, and placing stop orders on most of my positions. I remain cautious at this level and shall sell at the first hint of increased volatility, even though my data over the past four years suggest on average SPY continues to increase by an average of 1.78% after the sell signal is established.

Disclosure: I am long SPY, IJH.