We recently took a look at the top ten weighted stocks in the Nasdaq 100 to get a better sense of where the Nasdaq itself may be headed. The top 10 is just under 50% of the overall weighting, if you want to get an idea of the stocks that comprise more than 50%, we also recently looked at the top 25 stocks for WaveBOOM members which total 67% of the Nasdaq
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) (13.3%) - This chart updates the one we've worked with for 18 months. DSE got us short between 600 and 700, with a forecast for a test of 400. That happened last year, after which DSE warned of a test of at least 550. That happened this year, after which DSE warned of the next major move, which should be at least a test of 425 (along the blue path), with potential for a test of 275 (along the white path). Both paths are still alive, as the stock has approached the point where BOTH PATHS POINT LOWER (between here and 600) for several months! Although the stochs allow this stretch, odds favor a reversal before that "big number" is seen, as the upper BB is 588, and the upper 3 sdb is 598. That puts aapl into "clear and present danger" status, which should be sold if long, and shorted if able.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) (6.8%) - This monthly chart shows one of the greatest examples of parabolic rallies, followed by the EWT expectation of the return to the point of parabolic origin. This "if - then" is always seen, without exception. Since that crash low, the stock has risen in a huge ABC corrective structure to just above the Fibo 62% resistance of the entire decline. November saw the upper 3 sdb tested, which failed, giving way to the current decline, which is now back below the upper 2 sdb. With monthly stochs pegged at overbought, and weekly and daily crossed down, the path of the coming couple years should be consistently lower, even if the high 70′s are seen first.
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) (5.4%) - This monthly chart shows the turmoil that investors have lived through since its all time highs at the dot.com bubble peak, as well as where the next few years should take the price. Those coming lows will arrive in the middle of some metamorphosis of the company, as it transitions to its NEXT big thing. Until the 15 level is retested, from the '09 lows, this area, and into 45, is the selling zone, regardless of the justifications of those already long and leveraged.
Along with AAPL (13.3% weighting), the these three biggest components of the Ndx make up 25% of the Ndx. THAT is amazing! When they turn down in unison, along with the other 22 biggest pieces of the pie, there will be nothing to hold this, or any other, index up.
Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (4.7%) - This monthly chart shows an enormous "irregular flat" correction in the making, where wave (NYSE:B) of 2 moves high above the orthodox end of wave 1, before falling to complete all of wave 2′s correction, as wave (NYSE:C) tests the low of wave (NYSE:A) of 2. It may seem odd to label the move from 250 to 1100 as a part of a correction, but that is what is required under EWT, since the rise from the '08 low has failed to form an impulsive structure. Note that the stochs are now as overbought as they have ONLY been in late '07 and late '09. DSE warns to "look out below", just as it did in late '07, as the 700 level was approached. Those attending our Nov. '07 "Battle in Seattle" workshop remember this as the poster child for disaster. It turned out to become just that for those that failed to exit. It's about to have the same outcome.
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) (3.3%) - This monthly chart shows a similar pattern to that of qcom. It was caught in the same mania at that time. After the first four analyses, this one speaks for itself.
The conclusion is that these five stocks, representing 33% of the entire Ndx, give an ominous message; the rise from the '02 Crash low is peaking and should roll over soon.
Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) (3.1%) - This monthly chart shows a monster bull market in the making, where only waves '3 is ending here. After a multi-month wave '4 concludes, wave '5 should take prices to at least the low 90′s, if not 100, before EWT and Fibo corrections, of a magnitude never seen before in this company, take prices toward the low 40′s. Note these stochs haven't been this overbought since the end of wave '1 in 2008, and are making slightly lower highs than in March; a hint that wave '3 is now over. Weekly stochs just crossed down as well! Biotechs have been "en fuego" this year, and it's time to remove the capital from the Bunsen burner, before something explodes.
Blackberry (BBRY), formerly RIMM (3%) - This monthly chart shows the disaster that this former golden child has become, after AAPL ate its lunch with the iphone. Yes, there appears to be a completed EW pattern, and yes the stochs are very oversold. However, the risk of ruin here is higher than random, and must be considered a pure gamble. We'd expect it to be removed from the index in the coming year. This is another example of what follows a parabolic rally; crash back to the origin of the parabola. So, technically, this is a screaming, dream long, on the order of where AAPL was in '02, when the post '00 crash from 38 took it to 6.50, before it rose to 705 last year; a 10 year rise of 100 fold.
Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) (2.9%) - This monthly chart shows a very similar reality to several of the stocks shown yesterday; qcom, msft, and orcl. If accurately labeled, the next few years should be heavy, and the 5 +/-2 zone should be seen.
Teva Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:TEVA) (2.8%) - This monthly chart shows the similar "fad" status that we saw in the GILD chart, but more reserved here. Still, the pattern since the '10 peak near 65 is unlikely complete, leaving the blue path at the primary, and white path at the alternate, forecast for the next couple years. The upward stochs hint that the white may become the primary path, but the weekly stochs (not shown) are crossing down from lower highs than they reached at the Oct. highs.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) (2.5%) - This monthly chart shows little change from the last time we highlighted it, which was at the June high this year. In fact, we drew that white box at the April '12 peak, illustrating that the rise off the '09 low was corrective, and should be sold. Intc has been dead money since '04, having spent most of the time in the 25 +/-5 zone since then. With all rises forming 3 wave structures since '00, there is yet any evidence that the corrective process is complete. Therefore, the blue path is still in control, and 10 +/-3 is expected within the next few years.