- Crude oil prices settled higher on Monday amid growing expectations that producers will extend output cuts sooner rather than later as traders cheered signs that the market is starting to rebalance. Energy was today leader with +4.19% gain (vs 0.23% ytd), Utilities also rise thanks to GAS climb. Most other sectors fluctuated around -0.63% to 0.42%.
· Indexes, VN-Index -0.03%, HNX-Index +0.53%, Upcom -0.30%
· Active: HOSE: FLC, FIT, HAI, PVD, HQC. HNX: KLF, PVX, PVS, SHB, ACB.
· Foreigner, Buy: PVD, PLX, CII, CTG, VNM. Sell: HPG, BMP, KBC, DPM, AAA.
· Notice stocks: PVD, GMD, FIT, STB, PVS, ACB, PVX
· Trading volume: ~251.21 million shares
· Trading value: VND 4604.54 bil ~ 205.12 USD mil
· Foreigner transaction Net: -1.68 mil USD Sell 13.41 USD million and Buy 11.73 USD million
· PVS (VND 17,300/share, + 3.6%, Mkt Cap $347 Mil) PVS, the biggest domestic company in oil & gas services is in our Turnaround stocks list (together with HNG, GEX, DBC, DRI…) here on page 7 & 24. our analyst target PVS at 20,500 VND/share (P/E Forward 8.9x – P/B forward 0.6x) with Investment highlights:
EPC activities is expected to rebound in 2018, with the contribution of Ca Rong Do project (VND 8,200 Bil for 2017-2019). Some major onshore projects include Long Phu Thermal (VND 5,600 Bil for 2017-2020); and Long Son Refinery project (2018-2020). Exploration activities will be maintained throughout 2017. Although the rental price is just enough for break-even, it is still a huge improvement from the loss of VND 252 Bil in 2016
Catalyst: Possibilities of receiving indemnification from FPSO Lam Son for early contract termination. The total loss of future income from the termination is expected around VND 1,200 Bil (VND 300 Bil @ 4 years) – Likely to receive VND 1000 of indemnification and the FPSO contract will extend further with half of rental rate. Long-term prospect is promising with Lo B O Mon and Ca Voi Xanh at sight.
· What happened to Tuesday? Market is much bigger now, the rise of oil & gas stocks today barely kept Vnindex flat (which is not very healthy). Energy sector now is counted for less than 10% of the total market cap (compare to around 24% three years ago). While VNindex ytd hit 24% which is higher than most market participant’s wildest dream, Energy is the only sector lagged behind. Up until yesterday, the Oil and gas (ex GAS) barely made it to the waterline (0.25% ytd). 3 weeks ago, in our email August Rush with commodities , we mention the chance oil and other commodities climb, look what the market bring us to now. Oil is hard to forecast and we are not trying to. But it seem the sector has already seen the bottom. Our analyst bullish on GAS (as usual), PVS and PVT.
· Our turnaround stock list. Here on page 7. Early July, we have follow several interesting and depressed cases, including HNG, PVS, PPC, GEX, DBC, DRI… and few stocks start turn out quite nicely in this Aug.