Dear Value Clients and partners;
· Last week Vnindex outperformed while the global market fell due to US President’s threat of tariff on steel and aluminum. Today when most Asian markets recover (followed last Friday recovery in US market), Vnindex plunge. People blamed the ETFs sell, the foreigner sell and the steel tariff for the drop (not mentioned the ducks are replacing the Black Swan in HoanKiem Lake :D last week, I think they are kind of cute). Today, the biggest losers are material (-5.3%), Finance (-4.8%), followed by healthcare, Energy and utilities (lose from -2.55% to -2.87%). It might be worth to notice that Midcap slightly gained and in term of sectors, IT, Industry and consumer Staple stayed in the green too.
· Indexes : VN-Index -2.47%, HNX-Index -2.14%, Upcom +0.45%
· Active : HOSE: HPG, CTG, FPT, SSI, VRE. HNX: ACB, SHB, PVS, VCG.
· Index movers : Leader: VNM, BVH, TCH, VJC, CTD Laggard: VCB, GAS, BID, CTG, VRE
· Foreigner, Buy : DXG, VJC, PVD, AST, KDH. Sell: HPG, KBC, GMD, GAS, HCM
· Notice stocks : HPG, FPT, SSI, STB, VRE, DXG, VJC, ACB, VCS, VCG, VIB.
· Trading volume : ~ 364.2 million shares
· Trading value : VND 11485.9 bil ~ 506 USD mil
· Foreigner transaction Net: -7.3 mil USD Sell 77.4 USD million and Buy 70.1 USD million
· Derivative market Trading value ~ USD 118 million, VN30F1803@ 1075.5; VN30F1804@ 1095; VN30F1806@ 1092; VN30F1809@ 1136.9
· PV Oil (Listing price VND 20,200/share, Market cap VND 4,049 billion). HNX announced that on March 7th 2018, PV Oil shares with ticker OIL will be listed on the Upcom with opening price of VND 20,200, number of listed share of 200,445,036.
OIL is the second largest petroleum trading company in Vietnam. Distribution capacity was about 3.11 million m3/ton in 2016, accounting for approximately 20-22% of the market demand. Major products distributed through by PV Oil are gasoline, DO, FO, LPG.
2017 results update for OIL: according to the CEO of PV Oil on the roadshow, consolidated PBT (including the tax incentives) for the year 2017 was VND 630 billion (+1%yoy), thus we estimate that EPS 2017 = VND 464 and BVPS 2017 = VND 9,390. With the opening price of VND 20,200 on 07/03/2018, OIL will be traded with PE 2017 = 43.57x and PB = 2.15x.
Growth opportunities for OIL: (1) The general agent (the lowest profit margin segment) accounts for 60% of sales, industrial customers and retail customers account for 20% each. While with PLX, retail sales (the highest margin segment in petroleum business) accounts for 53-58%. (2) Growth by merger and acquisition activities: With more than 3,500 petrol stations, equal to about half of those of PLX, PV Oil has a rapid expansion by M&A activities (2008 to 2016, owned petrol stations have grown from 82 to the current 530 stations, mainly through M&A)
OIL vs PLX: On the other hand, PLX (petrolimex)was traded with the price of VND 83,100 on 05/03/2018, PE 2017 = 27.51x and PB = 4.71x. PLX has market share of 48% / OIL holds 22% (- 0.46x PLX); Gasoline storage capacity of PLX is 2.2 million m3 / OIL has 1 million m3 (-0.45x PLX); Owned petrol stations of PLX is 2,400 / OIL has 540 (0.23x PLX).
· State Divestment Update. Early this Feb, the State capital management committee was officially setup by the Gov which will manage 30 biggest SOE of Vietnam (total asset of over $200 billion). In the meantime, SCIC (one of the 30) announce the divestment plan of BMP (the biggest construction plastic producer in Vietnam). According to the plan, SCIC will divest 24 million share of BMP at starting price of VND 96,500 per share (29,5% of the company ~ $104 million), auction date will be on 07th of March. Last week, The Nawaplastic Industries (Saraburi) Co., Ltd (currently hold 20.4% of the stock) registered to the BMP’s auction. Last December, SCIC postponed the divestment of FPT, DMC, BMP and NTP after they had failed to divest VCG.
· The CPTPP between the 11 Member countries (Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, Australia, Peru, Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico, Canada, Japan and Vietnam) will be signed in Chile on March 8th, 2018. In terms of scale, the CPTPP agreement will create an open market, accounting for about 15% of global GDP and 15% of global trade volume. Market expect garment and fishery will be benefited from the CPTTP.
Picture of the day 5th March 2018: the ducks are replacing the Black Swan in HoanKiem Lake, Hanoi, Vietnam