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Deeper Research: Eisai's Licensed Territory Sales Forecast For Belviq

|Includes: Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA)

Once again the published writers will be playing catch-up to this unpublished instablog trying to explain how they reconcile imaginary hockey sticks and Credit Suisse lowered projections completely contradicted by what Eisai has committed to print as recently as August 2013.

I am pleased to bring to the attention of Arena investors that Eisai has published its licensed territory (Americas) sales projection for Belviq (See page 10 of Eisai's Annual Report published August 2013). PLEASE REMEMBER, EISAI IS PROJECTING ITS ENTIRE LICENSED SALES TERRITORY BEYOND THE U.S. ALONE.

To uncomplicate things, numbers are rounded-off throughout this report for simplicity. Of that chart we dissect the portion allotted to Belviq (View Eisai's chart and you'll understand why.)

March 2014 combined licensed territory sales forecast for Halaven, Fycompa, and Belviq: 80B Yen or U.S. currency = ~$818M.

Carefully examining the chart, Belviq's portion from Eisai's graph accounts for ~40% (hereafter).

Keeping in mind that Eisai's full year sales forecast grows out of zero and didn't account for Belviq's delay into the market, I'll help readers by adjusting Eisai's figures to account for the start date and a 3/4 year for only June 2013 - March 2014; thereafter I'll use the full 12 month calendar cycle. Irrespective though, here are Eisai's published sales forecast for Belviq by:

Start: Eisai's March 2012 now June 2013 = ~$0

March 2013 now March 2014 = ~$230M

March 2014 now 2015 = ~$327M

March 2015 now 2016 = ~$409M

March 2016 now 2017 = ~$573M

March 2017 now 2018 = ~$818M

March 2018 now 2019 = ~$1B

March 2019 now 2020 = ~$1.18B

March 2020 now 2021 = ~$1.28B

March 2021 now 2022 = ~$1.5B

Charted out it looks like this.

The linear line is added to improve the extrapolation from Yen to dollars.

Now investors can do what they like with this information, but it's all there if you follow the link provided above. Finally, of all five drugs that Eisai is moving forward, Belviq all alone accounts for the highest sales percentage. And remember, Eisai's projection is for all its licensed territory covering the Americas.

Of special interest, on page 16 Eisai reports that they are targeting "20 Latin American countries" versus the usual mention of Brazil and Mexico.

For the sake of analysts, Eisai projects Belviq will hit $1B in sales in six years for all its licensed territories.

Disclosure: I am long ARNA.

Additional disclosure: Unpublished instablog post. Accuracy not guaranteed. Readers are free to copy/paste and share this article for free with others.