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“OPEC, The Market And Oil Bulls Have Run Out Of Runway” - Andy Hall

In his July 3rd letter to investors, Andy Hall wrote, “In hindsight, OPEC’s attempts to manage supply were poorly conceived. OPEC should have acted more quickly and more decisively.”  He implied that OPEC sowed the seeds of its own failure. By “talking up” the market, it provided the environment that allowed US shale drillers to lock-in new financing when prices briefly rallied. OPEC’s cut was also too small to do the job, and the cut in exports failed to meet the announced production cuts. He predicts high inventories will continue this year and they may become even higher in 2018. 

Down around $3 billion (60%) as a result of his long bull oil strategy, he is now reverting to tactical trading. I agree with his observations above and have been pursuing tactical trading, as demonstrated by my model portfolio below. Click the orange button below for more information.

February 7- July 10, 2017

Gain

71.6%