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Social Mood And Systems Complexity

Comments on "unconscious social mood regulates social actions" (Robert Prechter: Why the Stock Market Is a Good Predictor of Presidential Elections, July 2012

An emotional "coloring" of our thoughts can be described as "mood" (do we "feel" that a glass is half full or half empty?). An aggregate of such thoughts can dominate a group or an entire society. Some researchers attach a great significance to the "prevailing social mood" as a driver of social action including the economy and the stock market.

Formation of our "logical/rational" thoughts, within the pre-frontal cortex, seems to be preceded, in milliseconds, by the activation of some regions of the limbic system, hippocampus/amygdalae, that may provide the emotional "coloring" to our thoughts and decisions.

The Dynamic Systems Model broadly categorizes biologic systems into three categories depending upon the level and quality of their complexity: the Health Territory with organized complexity and the two others with disorganized complexity (Zone of Chaos with dominant randomness, and Zone of Entropy with ongoing accumulation of non-functionality).

It could be postulated that, on one hand, "social mood" expressed by an optimized system, via adaptation and evolution, and is generating organized complexity, would express thoughts/moods with "coloring" of optimism which is fundamentally based on experiential confidence. The prevailing organized complexity likely creates collective intelligence that formulates the state of collective rationality. On the other hand, non-optimized systems that are in Chaos or Entropy and are entrapped in disorganized complexity, may express external optimism or pessimism which is, however, without the essential component of experiential confidence and thus could be greatly misleading.

Expressions of social mood can be broadly seen in various societal activities (e. g. art, politics, etc.) and researchers do attempt to measure it but it likely contains a large error (in scope, time frame, etc.). Our thoughts and activities have many ever-evolving drivers/attractors and time frames creating an intimate interplay among our own Bodily System and the innumerable other external systems (your input is someone else's output, etc.). It is extremely unlikely that the real mood of a societal system (social mood) is independent of the characteristics of its complexity. A societal system in Health Territory will drive system-optimizing social actions - value creation through adaptation and evolution - which can be seen as the emergence of its organized complexity. Also, it will likely express pragmatic optimism. On the other hand, systems in Chaos or Entropy will not have such features regardless of the portrayed mood. To judge the significance of a societal system's existing complexity (and thus its fundamental health) by "mood" only can likely be done accurately only in retrospect thus losing its methodological value in real time.