The probability window, which can show us the likely direction of evolving events, is usually the one with the “larger framework/scale.” Kondratieff’s Long Wave attempts to chart long-term market/event moves.
Kondratieff’s Summer phase seems to have ended in the recent past in the proverbial “irrational exuberance.” That was irrationality combined with optimism. The next Autumn phase would likely combine irrationality with fear. And, if irrationality and optimism produced the near collapse of the world financial system, what will irrationality and fear generate? It may be something truly unimaginable.