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This S&P Golden Cross Was Worthless

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

As much as I like to open beer bottles with my teeth, do my own tattoos, and roll around in the snow naked and beat myself with birch branches, when it comes to pain in my investment portfolio, I am definitely a wimp. So I have to take notice when a “Golden Cross” occurs on one of the major indexes, as happened with the S&P 500 on June 23 when it hit 888. For the initiated, a “Golden Cross” occurs when the 50 day moving average moves up through the 200 day moving average. Historically, this means that the index will rise 7% in the next three months, 8% in the next six, and 19% over the coming year. The trouble is that if technical analysts were always right, they would only wear Jon Green or Anderson & Sheppard suits, drive Bentley Turbo RT’s, and certainly wouldn’t deign to talk to you. The harsh reality is that most shop at Men’s Warehouse, drive Hyundai’s, and work on salary for brokers. If they were paid based on performance, there would be no need for Jenny Craig or Weightwatchers. Not that they are to be ignored. They are right at least half the time. But their opinions are just one more thing to throw into the decision making soup.