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Natural Gas: We Haven't Hit Bottom Yet

|Includes: The United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (UNG)
Many traders are staring at their screens with rapt attention to see if natural gas can hold the new seven year low of $3. If it does, you can expect an explosive rally back to $3.50. If it doesn’t, the mother of all stop loss selling will ensue, as day traders and chartists, ignorant of the fundamentals of CH4, bail on positions that technically looked sooooo attractive. Seeing this terrible price action with a hurricane barreling in on the East coast is nothing less than amazing. NG owners have to be thinking that if you throw good news on a market, and it can’t go up, then get the Hell out of there. You could see $2/MCF in a heartbeat, and the washout could set up one of the great long plays of the decade. Buying on the back of others’ distress is always a great play. Please see my call on June 2 to sell NG at $4.30 by clicking here . Remember the $13.50 we saw last year, or better, the $17 that printed after hurricane Katrina? They don’t call this contract the widow maker for nothing. For an excellent update on this clean burning fuel, go to the opinion page of the August 17 issue of the Wall Street Journal and read the piece entitled “New Priorities for Our Energy Future,” written by none other than two sons of the South, T. Boone Pickens and Ted Turner. (To read the full article, click here). They argue that the gigantic pool of NG recently discovered under the US exceeds the energy reserves of Saudi Arabia and should be used to transform our economy. But that isn’t going to help nervous traders decide if they should puke their long NG positions first thing tomorrow morning.