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It's Still Too Early to short US stocks

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)
Note to self. Don’t do your midnight pee next to the bear box. They’re called that for a reason. And I’m sorry that my shouting at the hungry, six foot tall black bear standing in front of me, no doubt more attracted by my Cheetos, hot dogs, and marshmallows than my Manhood, woke up the campers at the 57 surrounding sites. Of course it was too dark to find my bear spray. My ursine challenger eventually saw my logic that the neighbor’s ice chest was more appealing than I, and lumbered off into the darkness. I have successfully avoided bears of a different sort this summer, those of the stock market kind (see my July 15 warning not to sell to soon by clicking here). Never have I seen such a disconnect between the markets and the real economy. All of a sudden the world has gotten expensive. Stock prices have been levitated by vapor. The bulk of the trading volume is now accounted for by worthless zombie stocks like Citibank (NYSE:C), (NYSE:AIG), Fannie Mae (FNM), and Freddie Mac (FRE). Cost cutting, not sales growth, has artificially boosted earnings above subterranean forecasts. Commodity prices have soared because of stockpiling and not consumption. Puzzled CEO’s of every stripe are seeing no recovery in their businesses whatsoever. But bears who have sold into the summer rally have gotten a severe spanking. We are left with momentum players and chartists to grind out ever diminishing returns.  I have used the big up days to sell short dated out of the money calls in small size which, mercifully, expired worthless, sometimes just by pennies. That’s because I keep my favorite quote from John Maynard Keynes pasted to my monitor; “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.” Better to wait for a more convincing break on the charts before piling on those shorts again.