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Looking for an "L" Shaped Recovery in Housing

The real estate tracking firm Zillow.com estimates that 30% of all US homes are now underwater on their mortgages, equivalent to 27 million homes. There is a “shadow inventory” of a further 30 million homeowners who want to sell their houses on the any improvement in prices. Newly tightened lending criteria have permanently knocked another 10 million potential buyers from the market. Some five million of the nation’s 90 million houses are either for sale, in foreclosure, or held in bank inventories. I have a question. With 72 million on the sell side, who is going to power the much heralded rebound in prices? It could be a veeery long wait. I realize there is a lot of double counting here, but you get my meaning. It all bodes for an “L” shaped recovery in the real estate market, which means no recovery. Keep that rental. No principal risk, no property taxes, and just a phone call unclogs the toilet.