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Byron Wien's Bullish Take on the Market

It warmed the heart to see my old Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) colleague,Byron Wien, on TV. After my incendiary and iconoclastic interview withBill Fleckenstein yesterday (click hereto read), I thought I’d get the view from the other side of the street.Byron was our strategy guru at MS, then went on to mega hedge fundPequot, and then parachuted comfortably into a co-chairman’s role atthe all seeing, all knowing Blackstone. At 76, he looks pretty old andcrotchety, but then he looked old and crotchety when I first met him 30years ago. Byron gained his fame by annually publishing a top ten listof market surprises that traders believe are unlikely, but have a highprobability of happening, which the clients used to absolutely eat up.His list for 2009 is looking pretty good. Back in January when theworld was ending, Byron predicted that by year end, gold would blastthrough to a new high of $1,200, oil would rebound to $80, the S&P500 would reach 1,200, Chinese growth would come in at 7%, ten yearTreasuries would sell off to a 4% yield, housing would bottom, andObama would become a hawk on Afghanistan. He could be batting ten forten by year end. He argues that Christmas sales will come in betterthan expected, and the top line surge will enable the S&P 500 toclimb the last leg to his target. We are close enough to his othertargets to call it a win for him. When his next top ten list comes outin January, pay close attention.