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Jobs: The Worst Is Yet to Come

 The May nonfarm payroll came in at minus 539,000, better that the consensus of minus 650,000, taking the unemployment up to 8.9%. The improvement was caused by temporary hiring of government workers for the 2010 census. A peak above 10% now looks like a chip shot. Including discouraged workers, we are now at 15.8%, moving towards the great depression peak of 25%. In several industries, like autos, real estate, and construction, conditions are already worse than the thirties. It is clear that not a drop in stimulus money has led to any appreciable hiring yet. This may be the last really terrible number in this cycle, but you can expect continued hemorrhaging for a while.