Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Risk is Piling Up in China

|Includes: EWH, F, iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)
I confess that I am a total agnostic when it comes to specific investment philosophies, and a complete whore when it comes to trying out any new analysis that walks by. Maybe it’s because of my science and math background, but for me, raw data trumps opinion and hype any day of the week. So when someone I respect with a great track record argues that my core longs are setting up for a great short, I have to sit up and pay attention. No lesser being than famed short seller Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates (“Kynikos” is Greek for cynic), says that China’s (NYSEARCA:FXI) much vaunted 8% GDP growth is being massively inflated. The game will continue as long as there is easy access to credit, but when reality sinks in, the resulting crash will equal the subprime crisis in its severity for the global economy.  China is Dubai times 1,000. While shorting “A” shares on the mainland is illegal, Jim can short “H” shares in Hong Kong (NYSEARCA:EWH)  as well as the growing roll call of US listed ADR’s, ETF’s and futures contracts. Jim is also looking at shorting the derivative commodity plays like copper (see my recent copper warning by clicking here ), cement, and yes, gold. I agree with Jim in that China is the best place to be long in rising markets, and the worst place in falling ones. This is why I have recently put out several global risk alerts, as the level of risk in all asset classes, not just China, is clearly much higher than it was just nine months ago. Jim also dislikes the auto industry, which is still facing backbreaking legacy costs, specifically Ford (NYSE:F), and Fiat. EADS, the European airbus manufacturer, has myriad problems, and will eventually need a state bailout. Jim is neutral on banks, which are merely kicking the can down the road on bad loans and securities valuation.