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The Euro Trade that Really Worked

OK, so if you fire buckshot long enough you eventually hit a barn, a broken clock is right twice a day, and even a blind squirrel eventually finds an acorn. But you have to admit that my warning that paid subscribers received in my 2010 Annual Asset Allocation Review that the euro was about to blast through from the $1.44 to the $1.30’s, and eventually the $1.20’s is looking pretty prescient. I made the call because the dollar hating trade had become so one sided that a move in the opposite direction was a mathematical certainty. One sign of a great trade is that reasons for it to work you never thought of start popping up like mushrooms in a heavy winter rain after you strap it on. Accidents happen in its favor. Since my call, I have had quite an education about the European currency. The Greeks are notorious tax cheats, and have yet to forgive the Germans about WWII atrocities. Only six individuals in the Land of Plato paid more than $1 million in taxes last year. Goldman Sachs helped the government produce bogus numbers to gain entry to the EC in the first place. Greece’s economy peaked in 450 BC, and has been in default for most of the last 200 years. Antipathy against American bankers was so extreme that someone bombed the Athens office of JP Morgan. The markets are now baying for blood, wanting to discount the Euro either collapsing to parity against the greenback, or flying apart altogether. The only uncertainty is that this melodrama has a lot longer to drag out. Rome was not rebuilt in a day. By the way, if you want to take out a paid subscription for $149, I’m still happy to send out my annual forecasts. Please hurry up though before they all come true.