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Get Me Out of Oil!

|Includes: The United States Oil ETF, LP (USO)

Get me out of oil! I love a core long position in this commodity (see www.madhedgefundtrader.com/March_13__2009.html), and expect it to hit $200 before I join the AARP. But we have really gone too far, too fast, and are seriously in overshoot territory. Industry traders have been taking advantage of the greatest contango of all time, buying the front month contract, taking delivery, keeping it in storage, and reselling it forward to reap returns of up to 50%. And that is without leverage! Clever analysts are resorting to Google Earth to spy on storage facilities via satellite. Non industry players have been buying it as a dollar replacement. Crude burns better than dollar bills. As a result, crude in storage has ballooned to record levels. All fine and good when the price is going up. But crude can’t stay this high once the sugar high that is sustaining the economy burns off. Better to bail now at $70 and buy it back at $50 once reality sets in. And for Heaven sakes, don’t try to get to clever by shorting the stuff!