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Gold Sell-Offs Since Nov 2016

Dec. 08, 2017 9:32 AM ETGLD8 Comments
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Since the U.S. presidential election last November 2016, there have been six sell-offs of gold (including the current sell-off). I did a rough count of the price drop waves (followed by consolidation), and measured the time in days from absolute peak to the lowest low or the double bottom which preceded a rise in price.

As you can see, each of the five prior sell-offs was longer in duration, and also the absolute price drop was more each time than the current sell-off. Moreover, four of the five sell-offs had more than three selling waves, as we have now. As I have been saying, I will not attempt to pick this bottom, especially in an end-of-year period with much-higher-than-average commercial short interest.

I do think that the rise of bitcoin has hurt investor sentiment in gold. As the bitcoin futures roll out in the next few weeks, I expect bitcoin to rise in price in the short run (perhaps at the expense of gold).

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This article is similar to information that I post daily and weekly in my subscription service. If you are interested in research like this, you might consider Commodity Conquest. In addition to coverage of gold, silver and crude oil, I also conduct in-depth coverage of many energy and commodity firms. Here is a sample of my stock picks since June 2017.

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