Hedge Fund Manager, Newsletter Provider, Long Only
Contributor Since 2013
We publish risk management tools and hedged equity models.
Seeking Alpha public articles are written by Erik Lytikainen. Erik has 25+ years of experience as an entrepreneur, business developer and financial analyst. He founded Viking Analytics in 2015 after selling a commodity production & trading company he co-founded in 2006.
Partner Rob McBride has 15+ years of experience in the systematic investment space and is a former Managing Director at a $14 Billion hedge fund. Rob has deep experience with market data, software and model building in financial markets.
I invest in a portfolio of stocks and commodities that have low correlation to one another. This enables me to optimize risk and return. I record three different kinds of trades: 1) coverage trades (the stocks I that I research with fundamental analysis), 2) portfolio trades (longer-term allocations to uncorrelated assets), and 3) swing trades. My general intention is to allocate a maximum of 15% to any position.
I swing trade stock indices, commodities (and/or related ETFs) based upon several indicators, incuding: the OPEX Price Magnets, COT report, and technical analysis. My average hold with these swing trades is about a week.
I will usually have more cash over the weekend than I have during the course of the week.
Here is a summary of my current positions and current view of the swing trading potential of the commodities that I cover. For more information on the Commitment of Trader’s report, you can visit the CME Group website.
Here is a summary of my prior week’s trades and adjustments. This was my first full week back from a long vacation, and it was easily my best week of the year. I should take vacation more often! I completed four successful intra-week swing trades, and I booked profits in REX and GPP long positions, among other trades.
S&P futures seem to have an important support level in the $2,720 range. I am neutral at the moment, but expect to see technical support, launching to another higher high in the current trend. I expect equities to break down later this year, perhaps after another low volatility summer. If the S&P again challenges and breaks its 200-day moving average; however, volatility will pick up again.
Since launching the SPX Price Magnet report in February, I am 5 for 5 in trading the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) and/or the Powershares QQQ (QQQ) into option expiration. I publish a daily Op-ex Price Magnet report which costs subscribers as little as $1 per trading day.
At the moment, the Price Magnet is in balance with the current value of the S&P 500.
The largest eight traders (the “smart money”) in the S&P futures significantly reduced their short position, and added to their long position last week. Overall, the COT report is cautionary, but I almost gave it a neutral rating due to the big positioning changes.
This article was written for information purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. I never intend to give personal financial advice in any of my articles. All my articles are subject to the disclaimer found here.