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US ADP Employment Change Aug: 374K (Est 638K; prevR 326K; Prev 300K) - ADP Big Miss Again This Month

Sep. 01, 2021 10:21 AM ET
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US ADP Employment Change Aug: 374K (est 638K; prevR 326K; prev 300K)

After July's big miss, another one this this month from APD, coming in a little better than June levels (which were revised up) but still 250k under estimates (which is not quite as bad as July which missed by more like 350k). Still, again, there was growth of over 300k jobs (almost 400k in fact), which in normal times is very good. Services jobs (+329k) again making up the vast majority of the job gains (full tables below).

With the exception of "professional management" every size and sector showed growth, but smaller companies lagged a bit this month. Leisure and hospitality made up the majority (201k) of job gains (it's been the leading sector for months). Goods producing jobs up 45k after increasing 12k in July. From the report:

“Our data, which represents all workers on a company’s payroll, has highlighted a downshift in the labor market recovery. We have seen a decline in new hires, following significant job growth from the first half of the year,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
“Despite the slowdown, job gains are approaching 4 million this year, yet still 7 million jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels. Service providers continue to lead growth, although the Delta variant creates uncertainty for this sector. Job gains across company sizes grew in lockstep, with small businesses trailing a bit more than usual.” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The Delta variant of COVID-19 appears to have dented the job market recovery. Job growth remains strong, but well off the pace of recent months. Job growth remains inextricably tied to the path of the pandemic.”

Here were the details.

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