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US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 03-Dec: -241K (Est -1521K; Prev -909K) - Small Draw In Crude, 2.5mb Build In All Petroleum Inventories - Neil's Summary

Dec. 08, 2021 4:28 PM ET
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EIA - Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending Dec 3, 2021

US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 03-Dec: -241K (est -1521K; prev -909K)

- Distillate: +2733K (est 1000K; prev 2160K)

- Cushing: +2373K (prev 1159K)

- Gasoline: +3882K (est 2000K; prev 4029K)

- Refinery Utilization: 1.0% (est 0.4%; prev 0.2%)

After last week's small draw in US crude inventories, got another one in the week through December 3rd., although if you factor in the -1.7mb draw from the SPR, the draw was a little more healthy at -1.9mb, but down from -2.9mb (incl SPR) last week. But both gasoline and distillates saw large builds again this week.

We also saw Cushing, where WTI is calculated, build for a fourth week accelerating to 2.37mb after last week's 1.16mb and 787kb the week before. That gives even more breathing room from the minimum storage levels (storage has to stay at or above 20mb or there can be issues with the ability to keep lines pressurized, etc.) and that may be part of the outsized weakness in WTI (which has performed worse than Brent last couple of weeks).

Outside of gasoline and distillates, jet fuel and propane had builds, while residual fuels and "other" oils had draws. The overall result was a net build of 2.5mb (if SPR is included) after last week's build of 2.3mb. Total inventories now at 1,827.1mb incl SPR. SPR stocks are now at the lowest since 2003.

Crude - Production ticked up by another 100k to 11.7mbd, the highest of the year. Net imports increased by 329kbd, as while imports fell by -105kbd exports fell more (by -434kbd). Adjustment (basically an "equation balancer") was -420kbd. Refining throughput continued to increase (barely) for a sixth week to 88.9% from 88.8% last week as more refineries come out of maintenance. That though is down from 91.3% three months ago. Throughput was up by 153kbd to 15.785mbd.Crude inventories are -7% below the 5-year average (was -6% last week).

Products - Builds/draws detailed above and in table at the end. Gasoline now -5% below 5-yr avg (was -6% last week), distillates -7% (was -9%), and propane -11% below (was -14%). Propane build is good to see, and with the warmer weather expected in December it makes it less likely we'll have supply issues this winter.

Demand - Overall demand fell as is seasonally normal for around this time, but above 2019 levels as this week in 2019 had a big falloff to the lowest week of the year. Demand decline led by big declines in distillates and jet fuel which offset a big increase in "other" oils (blending components). Reminder, these are at the wholesale (not retail) level. 4-week average of total demand is up 7.1% y/y.

US oil demand fell by -385kbpd w/w to 19.837mbpd last week

gasoline +167

jet fuel -507

distillate -631

residual fuel oil +117

propane/propylene +58

other oils +528

Here's total demand which was above the same week in 2019 (but this was a very low week in 2019).

Here are selected inventories. Total inventories remain well below last 5 years.

As always, a thank you to @staunovo for the charts and some of the text. He is a great follow on Twitter for all things commodities.

To see more content, including summaries of most major U.S. economic reports and my morning and nightly updates go to Cbus Neil's Blog Posts for more recent or Sethi Associates for the full history.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report (eia.gov)

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