November Import Prices +0.7% M/M Vs. +0.7% Est And +1.2% P; Export Prices: +1.0% M/M Vs. +0.7% Est And +1.5% P - Import And Export Prices Decelerate From October But Remain Elevated - Neil's Summary
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Managing Partner of Sethi Associates, Ltd., a family owned investment manager specializing in investments in real estate, public markets, and venture capital with a current focus on esports investments. You can view my LinkedIn profile here. https://www.linkedin.com/in/neil-sethi-31204051. Started the blog at the request of friends who wanted an easier way to follow my thoughts on the markets and economic data, and now I share the articles on Seeking Alpha. Feedback always welcome!
November Import prices +0.7% M/M vs. +0.7% consensus and +1.2% prior.
Export prices: +1.0% M/M vs. +0.7% consensus and +1.5% prior.
U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes November 2021 (bls.gov)
Rounding out the major price reports for November, import and export prices were released today with both again rising strongly from the previous month but decelerating a little from the blazingly hot levels of October. All figures m/m unless otherwise indicated.
Import prices, which increased by 1.2% in October, on the back of an surge in natural gas (+19.7%) and petroleum prices (+8.1%), decelerated to a +0.7% increase in November with natural gas (+27.4%) and non-petroleum fuels (+22.7%) big weights. Industrial supplies, which are a much bigger weighting, were up +1.8%. Did see food and beverages decline a bit -0.3%. Y/y import prices are up 11.7% the most since September 2011.
Export prices were up +0.7% (decelerating from the +1.5% increase in October), the 20th straight month of increases fueled by a 4.3% rise in agricultural export prices. More details below. Export prices overall are up 18.2% y/y, the most since y/y was first calculated in 1984.
Detailed tables at the end.
Imports
Most of this is taken from the report:
U.S. import prices advanced 0.7 percent in November, continuing the upward trend recorded throughout 2021 with the exception of a 0.2-percent drop in August. The price index for U.S. imports rose 11.7 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year increase since the index advanced 12.7 percent for the year ended September 2011.
Fuel Imports: Prices for import fuel rose 2.0 percent in November following an 11.1-percent increase the previous month. The November advance was driven by higher natural gas prices. Import fuel prices increased 86.1 percent from November 2020 to November 2021. The price index for natural gas rose 27.4 percent in November, after advancing 20.8 percent in October. Those are the largest monthly increases since the index rose 44.2 percent in November 2020. Natural gas prices advanced 108.7 percent for the year ended in November. Petroleum prices also increased in November, rising 0.4 percent for the month and 85.8 percent over the past 12 months.
All Imports Excluding Fuel: The price index for nonfuel imports advanced 0.5 percent for the second consecutive month in November, the largest 1-month increases since June 2021. In November, higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, consumer goods, and automotive vehicles more than offset lower prices for foods, feeds, and beverages. Nonfuel import prices advanced 6.3 percent for the year ended in November, led by rising prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials.
Foods, Feeds, and Beverages: Prices for foods, feeds, and beverages declined 0.3 percent in November, the first monthly decrease since May 2021. The November drop was driven by lower prices for meat, fruit, and vegetables which more than offset higher coffee prices.
Nonfuel Industrial Supplies and Materials: Nonfuel industrial supplies and materials prices rose 1.6 percent in November, after increasing 1.4 percent in October. Higher prices for unfinished metals and chemicals led the November advance.
Finished Goods: Prices for each of the major finished goods categories advanced in November. Capital goods prices advanced 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month. The November increase was led by higher prices for oil drilling, mining, and construction machinery and computers, peripherals, and semiconductors. The price indexes for both consumer goods and automotive vehicles also rose 0.2 percent in November.
Import Services: The index for import air passenger fares rose 0.2 percent in November following a 1.4-percent decrease the previous month. Import air passenger fares increased 9.8 percent for the year ended in November. Higher European fares over the past year more than offset lower Asian fares. Import air freight prices advanced 16.9 percent in November, the largest monthly increase since a 26.2-percent rise in May 2020. Prices for import air freight rose 36.0 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month advance since March 2021.
Exports
Prices for U.S. exports rose 1.0 percent in November following a 1.6-percent advance the previous month. Higher prices for both agricultural exports and nonagricultural exports contributed to the overall increase in November. U.S. exports increased 18.2 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year advance in the series, which was first published in September 1984.
Agricultural Exports: The price index for agricultural exports increased 0.8 percent in November, after rising 1.0 percent in October. The November advance was driven by higher prices for wheat, fruit, cotton, and corn which more than offset lower nut and soybean prices. Prices for agricultural exports increased 21.4 percent for the year ended in November.
All Exports Excluding Agriculture: Nonagricultural export prices rose 1.0 percent in November following a 1.7-percent advance in October. The increase in November was led by higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, consumer goods, and automotive vehicles which more than offset falling prices for nonagricultural food. The price index for nonagricultural exports advanced 17.8 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month rise in the series, which was first published in March 1986.
Nonagricultural Industrial Supplies and Materials: Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices increased 3.3 percent in October, after advancing 1.4 percent in September. The rise in October was driven by a 7.0-percent increase in export fuel prices.
Finished Goods: Prices for each of the major finished goods categories advanced in October. Capital goods prices rose 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month and have not recorded a monthly decline since November 2020. In October, higher prices for industrial and service machinery and for electrical generating equipment more than offset lower prices for computers, peripherals, and semiconductors. Prices for automotive vehicles rose 0.3 percent in October led by a 0.8-percent advance in prices for vehicles designed to transport goods. The price index for consumer goods increased 0.2 percent following a 0.7-percent decline from June to September.
Export Services: Export air passenger fares advanced 0.9 percent in November, after declining 2.3 percent in October and decreasing 8.8 percent in September. The index for export air passenger fares fell 1.0 percent for the year ended in November, the first over-the-year decrease since the index declined 5.8 percent from August 2019 to August 2020. The 12-month decrease in November was driven by a 16.9-percent drop in Asian air passenger fares over the past year. Export air freight prices increased 0.4 percent in November following a 1.7-percent rise the previous month. The index has not recorded a monthly decline since July 2021. Prices for export air freight advanced 10.5 percent for the year ended in November.
Here are the main tables.
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