US Leading Economic Index (M/M) Nov: 1.1% (Est 0.9%; Prev 0.9%) - Another New Record High For The CB's LEI's - Neil's Summary
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US Leading Economic Index (M/M) Nov: 1.1% (est 0.9%; prev 0.9%)
US LEI PRESS RELEASE - December 2021.pdf (conference-board.org)
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index continued its run of strong readings, increasing another 1.1% for November to a new record high following a 0.9% increase in October. Expectations were for a 0.9% gain. At least according to this indicator, no recession is on the horizon. The commentary was positive.
From the report:
“The U.S. LEI rose sharply again in November, suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into the first half of 2022,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Inflation and continuing supply chain disruptions, as well as a resurgence of COVID-19, pose risks to GDP growth in 2022. Still, the economic impact of these risks may be contained. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth to strengthen in Q4 2021 to about 6.5 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still healthy rate of 2.2 percent in Q1 2022.”
As a reminder, here are the components of the LEI (it does have a bit of a manufacturing tilt):
As we can see, LEI's generally peak 6-18 months before a recession.
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