US CB Consumer Confidence Dec: 115.8 (Est 111.0; Prev 109.5; prevR 111.9) - Consumer Confidence Improves For A Third Month - Neil's Summary

US CB Consumer Confidence Dec: 115.8 (est 111.0; prev 109.5; prevR 111.9)

- Expectations: 96.9 (prev 87.6; prevR 90.2)

- Present Situation: 144.1 (prev 142.5; prevR 144.4)

Consumer Confidence Index® | The Conference Board (conference-board.org)

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index a little surprisingly (given that the Omicron news and latest CPI report came out in between the reports) increased in December for a third month (after November was revised up to a small gain from a loss), moving up by 3.9 points, led by the expectations index. The reading was above the most optimistic analyst estimate on Bloomberg. November was revised up to 111.9 from the initial read of 109.5. The present situation fell to 144.1 from 144.4 in November (revised up from 142.5 initial read) remaining "very high". The expectations index improved to 96.9 from 90.2 (revised from 87.6). Cutoff date was December 16th.

Concerns about both inflation and Covid declined despite nothing but negative headlines on both since the last report. Perhaps people are just getting desensitized to the constant barrages. In addition, buying intentions for homes, cars, household durables and vacations over the next six months rose. Confidence as to labor market conditions remained high although deteriorated a little as to current conditions but improved as to future conditions, as did future business conditions for a second month. Present business conditions were also more favorable. So overall, a very positive report.

From the report:

"Consumer confidence improved further in December, following a very modest gain in November,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index dipped slightly but remains very high, suggesting the economy has maintained its momentum in the final month of 2021. Expectations about short-term growth prospects improved, setting the stage for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, major appliances, and vacations over the next six months all increased.”

“Meanwhile, concerns about inflation declined after hitting a 13-year high last month as did concerns about COVID-19, despite reports of continued price increases and the emergence of the Omicron variant. Looking ahead to 2022, both confidence and consumer spending will continue to face headwinds from rising prices and an expected winter surge of the pandemic.”

Present Situation

Consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions was more favorable in December.

• 19.9% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 17.9%.
• 26.8% of consumers said business conditions were “bad,” down from 27.3%.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was moderately less favorable.

• 55.1% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 55.5%; still a historically strong reading.
• 12.5% of consumers said jobs are “hard to get,” up from 10.8%.

Expectations Six Month Hence

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term business conditions outlook increased in December.

• 26.7% of consumers expect business conditions will improve, up from 25.6%.
• 17.9% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 19.6%.

Consumers were also more optimistic about the short-term labor market outlook.

• 25.1% of consumers expect more jobs to be available in the months ahead, up from 22.8%.
• 14.8% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 19.0%.

Consumers were slightly less positive about their short-term financial prospects.

• 18.0% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 18.9%.
• 11.5% expect their incomes will decrease, down slightly from 11.7%.

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