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What Is The Cost Of Treating IA(Invasive Aspergillosis) In America?

|About: Vical Incorporated (VICL), Includes: ALPMY

200,000 cases of IA(Invasive Aspergillosis) Infection Worldwide

IA is primarily seen in people seriously Immunocompromised like In Acute Leukemia or Lung Transplant

In 2013, a total of 2990 hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of IA, and 14,470 hospitalizations with either a primary or secondary diagnosis of IA, occurred in the USA

A 2010 analysis of a national hospital administrative database found that the median length of hospitalization among patients diagnosed with IA was 18–26 days (depending on whether IA was a primary or secondary diagnosis) [8]. During this time, hospitals incurred a median cost between $32,465 and $68,008 (2006 USD), with antifungal medications accounting for 6.0–10.2% of those costs [8]. A 2009 analysis of data from the 2003 Nationwide Inpatient Sample concluded that the length of hospitalization for immunocompromised patients with IA was 1.8–12.4 times higher than the length of hospitalization of similarly high-risk immunocompromised patients without IA and the median hospital charges were 2.3–12.7 times higher (depending on diagnosis-related group) [9]. The annual total cost of IA in the USA, including hospitalizations, subsequent home healthcare, and outpatient medications, was estimated to be $674 million in 1998 [10], the equivalent of $1.3 billion today.

Ok so we can see that IA is a serious Infection, its Fungal in nature and is treated with various itra-conazole IV/PO anti fungals but NOT always successfully..there are issues w/ AEs, side effects and resistance.

So the need to advance newer/safer, more effective agents is absolutely present!

Enter VICAL(VICL) and VL-2397 a potent antifungal being developed by VICL.

""VL-2397 is Vical's novel antifungal compound that was licensed from Astellas Pharma in 2015. VL-2397 was isolated from a leaf litter fungus collected in a Malaysian national park and represents the first agent in a potentially new class of antifungal drugs. The FDA has granted Vical Qualified Infectious Disease Product (QIDP), Orphan Drug and Fast Track designations for VL-2397 in the treatment of invasive aspergillosis.""

Vical plans to initiate Phase 2 trial of VL-2397 for the treatment of invasive aspergillosis in 4Q 2017   

Vical Announces that its Antifungal VL-2397 is Eligible for Limited Use Indication Approval by FDA Based on a Single Phase 2 Efficacy Trial.

Why is all this important and worth a Blogpost to my readers?

P-2 LUI approvals are RARE and it looks like VICL could have one in 2018-2019. What is that worth? How about maybe $2B in WW sales potential!

What would that mean to VICL stockholders today? Put a 3x multiple on sales and you get $6B/11,402,000 shares outstang today=$526/share in the future.

VICL trades for $2.70 as of today!

There is a real DISCONNECT in VICL valuation from my POV.

Even if all VICL ever gets is 5% of this market w/ their drug that is still $300M in sales, and a 3x multiple is $900M/11,402,000 shs and so stock would be worth $78.93 per share..this is like the WORST CASE SCENARIO I can come up with if approved!

I'm a strong BUY of VICL with this LIU news!


Disclosure: I am/we are long ALPMY, VICL.