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Whats The State Of Biotech?

|Includes: Array BioPharma Inc. (ARRY)
Summary

The POTUS believes he can extract further DISCOUNTS from Pharma.

The POTUS believes FDA can EXPEDITE Life Savings Drugs to those Terminally Ill.

The POTUS is wrong!

I love Donald J Trump and I voted for him, but he has wrecked my BT/Pharma Portfolio with his Rhetoric!

So lets look at what the POTUS said the other Night about Healthcare.He took credit for the Obamcare Mandate Rollback.Ok I agree that was a lousy thing to do to mostly YOUNG PEOPLE working service jobs where HC benes are not provided...so for those people to now NOT be saddled w/ an Obammacare Ins Annual Premium which was about $300 and had to be figured into your Tax liability I say GO DONALD...but the POTUS takketh when he GIVVETH!

Next he talked about the Seriously INFIRMED w/ TERMNAL ILLNESS who need to be allowed to use the RESERACH DRUGS still in the lab..this has all sorts of issues way too many for me to illicit here at SA but suffice it to say LIABILITY is HUGE..really HUGE DONALD!

Yes FDA/Gottlieb is doing a good job..yes approvals are faster and the total number is up, but WH wants more...they want to give the TERMINALLY ILL access to drugs that are still in P-3 in the LAB--still NOT PROVEN!

...they want to use the TERMINALLY ILL  for what we already do CLINICAL STUDIES  in controlled trials w/ Placebo and BLINDS...that's to assure we get a real working drug...because they will DIE so what do they have to Lose..I believe MR TRUMP used this Line to BLACK FOLKS who always voted w/ the Dems...NOT QUITE THE SAME THING HERE DONALD!

And than to boot...the WH does not want to pay for it! 

They want the DRUGS like PLANES and TANKS for free.

Folks you can make a mistake in a tank or a plane and it will hopefully get caught before our Soldiers use them...DRUGS are a different animal! We cant afford to be Wrong with drugs lest we get FLIPPER BABIES a la 1960s and Thalidomide..todays Revlimid btw!

Lets step back and look at DRUG COST today..when I was in the field at Bayer in 1987 we had this brand new shiny drug called a Quinolone Antibiotic as in Ciprofloxacin..it had taken Bayer 10 years in the clinic to get it ready at a cost of about $750M...today Cipro likely would not be approved (tendon rupture AE), very in frequent but Runners get it from time to time....and Cipro today would cost twice as much or $1.5B..still would need 10 years in the lab and maybe gets 7 years of Patent Life...ok that's 7 years to BE on $1.5B and than they must show profit to shhdrs...right? That just $200M in Recapture cost per year....NOPE THAT AINT WORKIN FOLKS!

Do the math...ITS IMPOSSIBLE!

Today the FEDS tell us at CDC we have a real problem w/ ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE the so called MDR..and its true we do..the BIG PHARMAS left research to the small BT players like todays AKAO and PRTK to find tomorrows cures...long ago...why?

Its TOO EXPENSIVE and the feds give NO PRICE PROTECTION!

Heck the Chinese steal our drugs the day they get approved!

So the feds changed the laws, gave us GAIN, and Priority Review and other teasers to make it easier but still only MRK took a chance and they BOUGHT up CUBIST et al a couple years ago...so far to my knowledge NO BIG PHARMAS like JNJ, PFE, GSK, or BMY have followed suit!

All of these biggies used to have antibiotics...NOT ANYMORE!

Many years ago LILLY was the antibiotic king....not anymore!

So I guess I'm saying Mr POTUS be careful what you wish for on DRUG PRICING..once you go down the road of ""rest of world"" gets OUR DRUGS cheaper than we pay and in some cases that's true..and we pay more for the same drug...and that also is TRUE in some cases...well I guess I'm saying HELLO TO SOCILAIZED MEDICINE in AMERICA folks and if you want it bad like the EU/Canada et al...you will get it even WORSE!

Now for a reality check..the two biggest COST DRIVERS to drugs in America are Medicaid/Medicare and both buy drugs off the FSS which is the Federal Supply Schedule..this was set up 30 years ago to make sure the Feds had PREMIER PRICING/LOW BALL PRICING and it was FIXED w/ NO PRICE INCREASES for like 5 year contracts... always relative to what the rest of markets were paying and it was suppost to prevent COI w/ the FEDS when the FDA and other agencies were approving and pricing drugs at the same time...

To this day the FSS is still the best pricing and it beats what the REBATE INSURANCE DRIVEN PLANS pay too. The problem is not the Drug Cos..its the MIDDLEMEN..the layers in between YOU and the drug company and all their Markups..thats one issue.

Finally its the TREE OF DISCOVERY...we have discovered all the low hanging fruit..the drugs to treat al the basic issues like HBP and Diabetes...those drugs are relatively MODERN work well, with minimal AEs..they are now mostly Generic and cheap!Pennies a day to treat HBP for example!

Today we have the FRUIT AT THE TOP which is Cancer and Immune Diseases left to be DISCOVERD and they are very tough to conquer..if they were easy we would have CURED CANCER already long ago..we have been working on it all my career plus 25 more years!

But the POTUS now wants to give people who are TERMINAL access to drugs like ARRYs which are Binimetinib and Encorafinib..they work..they can extend life in CRC they are in P-3 and near approvals...if you are terminal CRC I can see you might want to try one of these drugs...but what about all the people who are in trials which are CONTROLLED...how do we square this? Its a very slippery slope and I hope the POTUS comes to his senses!

This is a real problem in that PROTOCOLS are set up to do real science and now the POTUS wants to break into those models and ALLOW NEW FOLKS because they are TERMINAL and dying..it all sounds great but the TRIALS will be made NUL and VOID and we the paying public patiently waiting for GOOD SCIENCE to prevail and again for the few we will again be usurped by the Special Interests!

NO THANKS MR POTUS!

And I voted for you!

RP

Disclosure: I am/we are long ARRY.

Additional disclosure: I'm long ARRY but I would be against compassionate use models except for APPROVED Meds!