Imagine if you had $1 million dollars at the end of 2007. You decide to invest this money in the list of the original dividend champions companies. How would you have fared if you had invested that money in the dividend champions almost a decade ago?
I have thought about the answers to this question many times. A few weeks ago I decided to start doing the work to answer it for myself. I always enjoy doing the hard work myself in order to form my opinions.
I used the information from David Fish and Robert Allan Schwarz in my data gathering phase. I wanted to determine how a passive investor in the original dividend champions from late 2007 to early 2008 would have done.
I was also inspired to do this research after observing those who always try to scare people away from dividend investing. The usual scare tactic involves mentioning one instance of a dividend cut, from the worst time for dividends during the 2007 - 2009 financial crisis, in order to trigger feelings of irrational fear. This low probability event is used to scare people away from dividend investing. Somehow, these doom and gloomers tend to focus on a once in a lifetime level of dividend cuts which has happened only during major financial collapses in 1929 - 1932 and 2007 - 2009. Otherwise, they do tend to ignore the 95% of the time when dividends are either up or flat for the year in aggregate.
I decided to accept the challenge, and offer proof that dividend growth investing works wonderfully even during a period that was extremely challenging for almost any strategy.
I decided to test how an investor in the original dividend champions from late 2007/early 2008 would have done through the end of 2016. The beginning period is right at the start of the Global Financial Meltdown, which supposedly decimated all dividend portfolios. Using data, and logic, I am going to refute the irrational fears against dividend growth investing.