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Forecasting the next (financial) earthquake

You could read the article linked below as a story about Japan's fruitless efforts to forecast the next earthquake in advance. Or you could read it as an article about how to prepare for unpredictable"black swan" events hitting your portfolio.
 
The earthquake struck in an area where experts assigned a 0.1% chance of it happening. It did not strike Tokyo which experts rated as nearly 100% at risk.  One of Japan's top earthquake scientists now says the experts ought to give up trying to forecast earthquakes in advance because they keep forecasting the wrong ones. 
 
His advice  “We should instead tell the public and the government to ‘prepare for the unexpected’ and do our best to communicate both what we know and what we do not.”
 
"Preparing for the unexpected" is as good advice in the stock market as in seismology. And probably better advice than you'll get from the financial experts and talking heads on Bloomberg who missed the subprime crash, the Asian crisis, the top of the dot-com un-bubble, etc.
 
Just my opinion.

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Japan Must Stop Forecasting Big Quake Near Tokyo, Geller Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-13/japan-must-stop-forecasting-big-tokyo-quake-as-models-flawed-geller-says.html
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