Long/Short Equity, shipping, Value
Contributor Since 2013
*UPDATE* Gersemi Research has been acquired by the Cleaves group
Gersemi Research is an independent investment and equity research platform with primary focus on shipping and oil services. We have a proven track-record of significantly and consistently outperforming consensus and generating returns above the SP500 over many years
Mr. Joakim Hannisdahl, our Head of Research, has several years of experience as a Shipping Analyst on equities at Nordea Markets and Fearnley Securities. He holds a Master of Commerce (extension) with specializations both in Financial Econometrics and Funds Management (UNSW), in addition to a Bachelor of Social Sciences with specializations in both Economics and International Relations (NTNU). He is currently investing private funds, among other engagements.
Please visit http://gersemiresearch.com to gain direct and real-time access to our research.
GoodBulk was newly listed on OTC in Oslo after raising USD 100m in new equity at around USD 10.6/sh (NOK ~92) to expand its fleet. The company writes: "GoodBulk is a new company established by Brentwood Shipping and Trading in December 2016 in partnership with Lantern Capital Partners LP and other partners to create an attractive vehicle for investors to access the drybulk shipping market". Following the latest acquisition of a 2007-built Panamax announced on Thursday, "[…]the Company will control a fleet of ten vessels consisting of seven capesize, one panamax, one ultramax, and one supramax". To our knowledge, the newly acquired vessel is the 75k dwt Bariloche for a consideration of USD 13.8m, in-line with our generic valuation at USD 14.2m. GoodBulk's strategy is to acquire "5-15 year old dry bulk tonnage ranging from Supramax to Capesize vessels, currently believed to offer the best risk/reward profile".
Valuation: Our target price of NOK 141/sh is based on a weighted average of current (NOK 122/sh) and future NAV, in combination with a mid-cycle EV/EBITDA in 2018/19E. In addition to the attractiveness of current valuation metrics, we expect the share price to enjoy a positive momentum from increasing analyst/investor focus, further fleet growth and eventually improved liquidity and full stock exchange listing.
As a final note, the recent free-fall in Chinese iron ore prices indicates the short-term correction in dry bulk shares could continue (see chart below). Nevertheless, we believe 2q17 could be an opportune moment for the dry bulk light investor to increase exposure.
Disclaimer: The publisher currently has no investments in the company