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Chubb: Quantifying Lowball Guidance

|Includes: Chubb Ltd (CB)

Chubb (NYSE:CB) reported fine earnings for 2014, but guidance for 2015 was characterized as "light" by the press, and the shares have been giving up some of their recent gains.

The company has a history of lowballing guidance, strong enough to be worth tracking and quantifying. Here's a table:

Over the period tracked, the company has beaten guidance by an average 18.61%, and missed only once.

Based on this analysis, I'm looking for EPS of $8.90 for 2015. The earnings will be deployed to benefit shareholders, some to the dividend, the bulk of it to buybacks. With that in mind, I'm not too concerned about the share price. The lower the price, the more profitable the buybacks will be.

Disclosure: The author is long CB.