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Want To Make 30-40% Over The Next Year In INTEL?

|Includes: Intel Corporation (INTC)

When looking for Buy Sell or Hold Strategies one should consider the Technical and Fundamental reasoning behind their decisions. We will begin with Long Term TA and work our way down to Short Term. I will use only TA but applied as reassurance to Fundamentals makes for the advantage we need.

Here is the Technical side with respect to INTEL (NASDAQ:INTC):

LONG TERM:

  • INTC has been in a consolidation pattern for over 7 years now. In about a $20 range anywhere from the teens to mid 30"s.
  • Continues to be within its bear trend .
  • Resistance at $29 area.
  • Support $13 area.
  • RSI showing confirmation to this potential break thru $28-$29 area.
  • Trading above its moving averages.
  • Parabolics favor a buy.
  • Lack of Volume in confirmation for a Buy signal.
  • Recent Doji candle formation giving assurance to a sharp move in price to follow. Ialso see S/T support at $26.50
  • Recent Hammer formation giving support around $20.
  • 2004 Doji followed by fallen crows formation is resistance $34.50.
  • Stochastics are mixed with the slow stoch calling for a potential dip in price and fast stochs showing confirmation to a rise in price.
The long term assessment here gives you some shorter and longer term support and resistance areas. **These levels allow you to help determine your risk/reward ratios. Where u may want to enter and exit. ** I have noticed two prior Long Legged Doji Candles that came about after large price increases. They occurred in November 2003 and December 2007. Both leading to sharp declines in price over the following year. The declines that followed were 40% in a year! NOW the reason I bring this to light is that we have this same signal again. Today, we are one month into the post year decline following a Doji candle. With INTC at the $27 level I feel you can catch a sell off over the next year back to its lower support levels. I am talking about testing the $16.75 Hammer candle from June of 2006. Where else are you gonna pull out 30-40% over the next year?

The Long Term outlook for INTC is SELL. Not until INTC can show solid confirmation to the upside can we buy INTC. Lack of volume and the fact it does remain in its bear trend discounts any pros I may have shown for the upside here. Perhaps the Short Term outlook can show us otherwise.

SHORT TERM:

  • $26 Support and $27.50 resistance.
  • Again lack of momentum and volume confirmation here.
  • RSI at normal levels but on a down turn. Showing signs of breaking under its recent bullish RSI trendThat would be an RSI withholding its 55-80 levels over a period of time. This would allow for S/T confirmation to a change in its recent bull trend back to bear.
  • Stochs like the stock to continue to rise and perhaps break above S/T resistance. Especially slow which has found support and is beginning to turn up.
  • Bollingers calling for a move strong in either direction. They are beginning to tighten here.
  • The only confirm to price with volume is at the breakthrough of $26 on the 20th of January 2012. This is giving me a more solid support level for a stop to a S//T trade here.
  • Parabolics are pushing towards a decline.

The Short Term outlook here calls for a SELL. I have shown the S/T support and resistance levels.

Suggested Trade: I would be in now to take advantage of the steep decline ahead. I feel you have big reward here. You can set up a short with a $27.50 stop. Your Risk/Reward here is insurmountable.

I would also suggest Buying Puts that are - far out.

"Short" - for the Long Term

Chart forIntel Corporation

Yahoo charting

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Additional disclosure: i am unable to change the focus ticker to INTC