Despite widespread government and central bank intervention in the financial markets, price action in the dollar index and commodities show that long-standing relationships are still just as reliable today as ever before.
While stories about a "new era" of trading and investing have been common in the press and on the Internet over the past couple of years, we disagree with their logic. While we certainly are in an economic environment where central bankers wield much influence, we feel that "this time" is really no different than any other market cycle that has played out over the previous 75 years. It still comes down to money and human behavior, and we don't see that changing anytime soon.
Effect over Cause
"This time is different" has become a common theme in market discussions, with many analysts exhibiting the fervor of revival ministers on a Sunday pulpit.
Disclosure: I am long UUP.