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Arena Will Pop If....

Jul. 04, 2013 9:00 PM ET2 Comments
Spencer Osborne profile picture
Spencer Osborne's Blog
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Investors that take the time to sift through the hype and bashing regarding Arena (ARNA) already know that this equity has been an active traders dream for quite some time. The main reason for that is uncertainty. There is potential with Belviq, but the anti-obesity road is littered with products that have shown promise and failed. Belviq could be different, but caution is warranted. It has many people placing a bet on success, but there are also many placing a bet on failure. Thus far there has been nothing from a sales standpoint to prove either side wrong. Thus...A traders dream.

When July 5th arrives and script numbers come out it is my opinion that this equity will surge on anything above 3,000 and suffer on almost anything below that number. What you need to know is that the move is likely temporary. In other words, any surge will be followed by a drifting back down, and any dip will be followed by drifting sideways, or down slowly. You see, even with a script number of 3.000 or better this week, the equity has still not proven itself. It would take huge numbers to quell the quest for whether or not this is a blockbuster in the making.

I have critics out there. Most of them are simply people that WANT the equity to simply rise. I want that as well, but I am a realist. There are only certain things that will make that happen. REAL BIG SALES NUMBERS is what it takes.

This 3,000 number is not a set-up. Why did I reserve this for an insta-blog rather than an article? Because the more savvy investors will find this and not run around cheering or bashing it, but rather see it for what it is. My critics will not see this, and will lament that I cover the script numbers unfairly. I am anticipating over 3,000 tomorrow, and have already written an article to cover it. I am so confident that I did not yet write an article covering if the number is below. My article is already titled "Arena Surges On Script Numbers. Of course, I will need to see the data and polish up the piece, but the framework is already written.

Watch the reaction of my critics tomorrow when the data comes out and I cover it. They will find some way to label me as being manipulative. I am not.

Disclosure: I am long ARNA.

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