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Symphony Vs. IMS Part 2

|Includes: Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA)

Continuing on with the subject of Symphony Health vs. IMS health in relation to script count. As I have stated many times, I adjust IMS up 10% and keep Symphony with no adjustment. How did that compare to what Arena reported in Q1?

I use my adjusted IMS numbers to project revenue. Using my adjusted numbers:

  • I estimated that net sales of Belviq would be $9,238,387 - The actual number was $8,400,000. In essence, I was just under 10% over in my revenue projections based on methodology of a 10% adjustment to IMS and leaving the Symphony number as reported.
  • I estimated that the Arena share of sales revenue was $2.9 million. The actual came in at $2.7 million. If you consider the revenue from the freebies, the actual Belviq revenue came in at $2.9 million (exactly what I projected).
  • Had I used the Symphony numbers in my projections, the revenue would have been overstated even further. The net sales would have been $10.4 million and the Arena share of the net would have been $3.3 million.

Essentially, to make Symphony numbers work, one must assume that the more than half of the money from gross revenue will be removed to get to the net revenue line vs. my stance that net is 55% of gross.

Critcs can criticise all they want, but my projections as well as the adjustments I make have proven themselves out over time.

Disclosure: I am long ARNA.