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Amarin: A Competitive Intelligence Analysis On Vascepa

|About: Amarin Corporation plc (AMRN)
Summary

Hindsight is 20/20 yet higher-level intelligence drives future profits. As such, I focus on forecasting the upcoming regulatory binary for Vascepa's label expansion and other corporate developments.

Despite Vascepa's dominant position, there are competing molecules such as Lovaza and over-the-counter Omega-3 supplement (OOS) that investors should assess.

In the spirit of sharing, I'll present part of what I discussed today inside my private investment community earlier than usual.

The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble ... We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. - Warren Buffett

As the weekend is winding down, I'll conduct competitive intelligence analysis on Amarin Corporation (AMRN). The inspiration from a ScienceDirect article that an Integrated BioSci Investing ("IBI") member shared catalyzed this analysis. As such, I'd like to express my gratitude to all IBI members for your continuous intellectual generosity. Equally important, I appreciate the counter-viewpoint. And, I encourage you to continue sharing your inputs.

In my view, IBI is a community where we learn from one another to become better investors. Therefore, all respectful debates are welcoming. By dissecting opposing arguments, we can learn about an investing thesis on a deeper level where most value resides. Without further ado, I'll take a deep-dive into this commentary. 

Figure 1: Amarin chart (Source: StockCharts)

Accordingly, I found the recent article on Vascepa's competitor intriguing for various reasons. Notwithstanding, they all underlies the "impurity" and "subpar quality" of over-the-counter supplements (i.e. OOS), which I attributed to their regulatory laxity. The author remarked,

Elucida Research in Beverly, MA, found that Omega-3 fatty acid (3FA) levels fluctuated greatly from product to product, from as low as 33% to as high as 79%. However, it also determined that high levels of saturated fat and oxidized 3FA found in the supplements may actually undermine their possible health benefits.

As Elucida elucidated, one can best hope for a 79% Omega-3 from OOS. Adding further injury to insult, I believe that the aforementioned 79% is not pure eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) like Vascepa. Asides from "fillers and oxidized Omega-3," OOS harbors the silent cardiovascular-disease inciter (i.e. docosahexaenoic acid or DHA).

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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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