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Powerful ICE: Tuesday, Dec 15, 2020

Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Integrated biosci research, consultant

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2013

As an astute devotee of Warren Buffet, Ben Graham, Phillip Fisher, Sir John Templeton, and Peter Lynch, Dr. Harvey devoured any resources/books on these gurus to learn their craft for over two decades. In the process, he refined their investment approaches specifically to biotech and founded Integrated BioSci Investing: The Number #1 Biotech Service for Long-Term Growth Investing and Power Catalyst Trading. 

Since inception, our flagship portfolio has delivered over 
31.23% annual average (i.e. 187.39% for roughly six years). As you can appreciate, we’re adept at assisting and serving institutional/retail investors/traders who are looking for alpha. Dividend investors wanting to boost your return can also benefit greatly from our investment research. We currently have over 20 docs in our service for us to tap into their clinical insight for your gains.

Check out some of
our binary event forecasts that lead to meteoric gain like the 359% single-day pop from Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)’s NASH data release. During his training at the world-renown Columbia University, Harvey Tran, M.D., M.S., developed a passion/edge for analyzing the intricacies of various preclinical/clinical studies, biostatistics, and science/medicine. Importantly, it allowed the physician-scientist Harvey to realize the internal working of various therapeutic in-development that the market tends to overlook.

In recent years, Dr. Harvey founded and led two healthcare roll-up companies. The endeavor helped him gain deep insight into the inner working of a corporate board. His experience as a consultant to common/professional investors and institutions gave him a huge advantage in biotech analysis.
The combination of elite training and a passion for biotech provided Dr. Harvey with an aptitude for delivering highly accurate clinical data forecasting that is crucial to picking winning biotech investments for you.

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As you can see, you don't need to be a genius. Many rich people don't have to be at the top of their class.

However, they excel because they leverage other's ingenious brain. At Integrated BioSci Investing, there are many geniuses.

We have many practicing physicians, scientists, CEOs, analysts, fund managers, and other financial pros. 

That being said, I'll share with you some of their insight to help you gain an edge in the market. In this Powerful IBI Community Experience, I'll share with you some of what we discussed in IBI.

carlos54Dec 15, 2020 1:31 PM

ITCI is up between 4-5% today. I suspect the market is anticipating that the firm will shortly file for an NDA to cover the use of Caplyta for bipolar depression. I naturally hope they have been speaking with the FDA about this.

Biosci.capital.partnersModeratorLeaderDec 15, 2020 1:33 PM

carlos54 You've made correct calls about ITCI, Mr. Carlos. I believe you. With the robust data, I would expect ITCI to expand its label before schizophrenia to cover BPD.

It's always nice to see a stock breaking the trend on a down day. How high do you think ITCI will go with Caplyta's approval?

flammanDec 15, 2020 2:41 PM

I am sitting with an order to buy at $25.50. I have a good position in this. hoping to get a few more shares at a good price. I am looking for $40+.

Biosci.capital.partnersDec 15, 2020 2:43 PM

flamman ITCI has a good chance of going to $40.

flammanDec 15, 2020 2:56 PM

I sold ITCI after the last approval on Schizophrenia at $34. Bipolar depression is a much bigger market and Caplyta is now generating revenue. I think the $40 number is conservative. I don't think I will sell all if it hits that price, maybe half.

Biosci.capital.partnersModeratorLeaderDec 15, 2020 3:34 PM

IMGN moved from $3.45 to over $7.36 in just over a month. Lots more room for this turnaround stock.

homonnayaDec 15, 2020 3:37 PM

This is not such a bad day after all. I think the market is banking on stimulus, so that keeps the momentum going. The big question will be next year, once it fizzles out and perhaps vaccination will take longer than expected (or some other sh*t happens) then perhaps it will dawn on the market that valuations are getting stretched. So a correction is clearly on the horizon.In the meantime, I'm thinking really hard about 'high-grading' my portfolio.

Letting some weaker ones go (like EVFM the other day and I'm not comfortable about CLVS and AGEN, either) and focusing on the strong ones (like IMGN and ITCI). Perhaps even adding to my positions.

One more thought, if I may: there are many 'shiny objects' in biotech so it's really hard to stay focused. I've prepared a little spreadsheet for myself where I track what I consider most important about some 25 biotechs I'm watching. Nothing earth-shattering, just stuff like size, IBI recommendations, 'smart money' (like Baker bros), short volume, financing needs, medical needs covered, FDA status. It helps me see the big picture and separate the wheat from the chaff. Cheers and GLTA!

Th87ModeratorDec 15, 2020 3:44 PM

IMGN - congratulations on your countless calls, doc.You have told us many times not to overlook IMGN and now it is rallying vigorously. I also think the best is yet to come since SORAYA and MIRASOL data release are big catalysts.

Th87ModeratorDec 15, 2020 3:53 PM

homonnaya You had a brilliant idea! In investing it is important to know what you are buying, why you are buying it, and to have a follow-up on the companies.

Many investors buy following recommendations found here and there without having any conviction, or even doing their due diligence. They don't know what they're buying, so when their stock is down they panic and don't know what to do.

homonnayaDec 15, 2020 3:58 PM

There are two upcoming catalysts I'm watching: AUPH and MYOV. Both are IBI stocks. I have a small position in AUPH but none in MYOV. Is this a good entry point now? Any thoughts on these two?

Th87ModeratorDec 15, 2020 4:00 PM

Speaking of great stocks, MYOV is getting closer to PDUFA date for relugolix in advanced prostate cancer (expected before the end of the week)How do you think guys MYOV will trade after approval?

In my opinion, it may fall slightly before PDUFA date because the market does not have the advantage we have here inside IBI (65% chance of success forecasted), then I see two possibilities: either it will go up or it will go down. .. to better go back up. With MYOV buyout assumptions circulating, investors won't want to take the risk of missing the train in case that happens.

AUPH good entry point

MYOV I would buy at least some to get an exposure

If you are long, you won't mind near term volatility

I shared my insight for AUPH in "your high conviction" room

lrnmo25Dec 15, 2020 4:02 PM

homonnaya I think your thoughts are very insightful given the current landscape. I too am ridding myself of lower quality stocks. Since you mention the spreadsheet, I need to resurrect mine and update as it was very useful. Too much exuberance and over-valuations....GLTA!

I definitely think a pullback is due in the near future. Where do you find the "smart money" info for the stock?

homonnayaDec 15, 2020 4:12 PM

I just go through the list of institutional holders (e.g. in Yahoo Finance) and look for Baker bros, Orbimed, ARK, and Sarissa. They know their stuff. Big pharma ownership like in the case of MYOV is also indicative.

Of course, sometimes they also go wrong/if they get out I'll be the last one to know so one shouldn't follow them blindly.

lrnmo25Dec 15, 2020 4:14 PM

Got it. Thx!

homonnayaDec 15, 2020 4:16 PM

Btw there are some very sharp & experienced people here in the IBI community, too (let me not call out any names, because I might leave out someone), people I also consider "smart money."

arikelinDec 15, 2020 5:40 PM

Good point that a lot of people will also not sell bc they want to hold for a buyout...though I don't' know that a buyout will be coming for several months possibly.

In an earlier post, I mentioned Carlos said 65% of the company is owned by Sumi and Takeda, and he felt they are not selling..esp if Sumi is going to likely by the company

I read another thought earlier that aside from owning so much of the stock, Sumi also did the financing for Movant...if they didn't want to buy out, would they be financing?

Nevertheless, I bought some s/t options so if the stock tanks I can unload some shares, but won't be "naked" from the prospect of a buyout.

Biosci.capital.partnersModeratorLeaderDec 15, 2020 10:26 PM

all After careful deliberation, I removed the members who have been pumping SHMP after countless warnings. And I added SHMP to our blacklisted stocks along with CYDY. (If you recalled, CYDY was rallying aggressively due to pumping. Months later, it lost most of its value). IBI Announcement: Blacklisted SHMP To Protech Your From Pump & Dump

sairam1729Dec 15, 2020 5:43 PM

Long time overdue. I joined the site for the purity of discussions in biotech. then it degraded to gold stocks, metals, crypto, and so on. The free chat channel is a good idea. If I want tips on other stocks I go elsewhere. We also need to stop discussing garbage ... etc. I think you due to your good nature to allow things to go on longer than other stock day trading sites. If I am working 9 hours care of critically patients in the frontline in Covid care, 1 or 2 hours I get 1 to get the maximum benefit from the research.

By the way, I think FGEN/AZN drug for anemia indicated for MDS will get approved on December 20. EUA FOR MRNA is a done deal on Friday. I will be receiving my PFE/Biontech vaccine tomorrow.

homonnayaDec 15, 2020 4:09 PM

Yes, it takes time to update those spreadsheets, but they are very useful, indeed. I have another one on Upstream (that's my other focus area) and it's really helpful so I update it quarterly. Especially because Upstream is cyclical. It's on the uptrend now and I'm holding tight onto my positions but I'll sell them shamelessly once Brent hits 60. Then I'll only have biotech to invest in.

Biosci.capital.partnersModeratorLeaderDec 15, 2020 7:25 PM

It's great to see RGNX making a big move today with +7%. I like niche leaders b/c they usually deliver outsized returns over the years.

Biosci.capital.partnersModeratorLeaderDec 15, 2020 8:10 PM

all Enjoy your next blog article. I'm also working on in-depth research for you. Lots more stuff coming. IBI Blogs On Retirement Secrets: Focusing On The Few Not The Many - BioSci Capital Partners

loudsleeveDec 15, 2020 8:23 PM

Fantastic article. I'm forwarding this to all my personal investing friends, who still have not subscribed. Although I've been silent, I read and watch daily, this platform has reaped me many monies, I am Greatfull!!!

AXNX, medical devices, chronic back pain electronics, Dr. Tran I've been loading up if you have any thoughts.

tjrippeDec 15, 2020 8:33 PM

Thanks, Irnmo25, I appreciate it. I have been very lucky with TGTX, and continue to hold it. It has been on a tremendous run lately. I get the feeling that TGTX is a buyout candidate sometime next year.

Biosci.capital.partnersModeratorLeaderDec 15, 2020 8:36 PM

tjrippe That's what my intuition tells me too. ITCI and AXSM are also good BO candidates. I just never based my investing on a BO.

tjrippeDec 15, 2020 8:38 PM

I agree, Dr. Tran, about never investing in a buyout. I have read a couple of other message boards, and it seems like the one thing against TGTX is that they do not have a big or established sales force to sell their new and upcoming drugs (deep pipeline). It costs big bucks to have a salesforce. Any idea what a takeout or buyout target might be?


tjrippeDec 15, 2020 8:41 PM

Ya, they could use some help. I have heard J& J and Sanofi as possible companies. Are we talking a buyout of $100 or something more like $150 and up?

ratsaladDec 15, 2020 9:54 PM

Hi Dr. Tran, thanks for your update on RGNX, I have not entered but looked at entry, I am looking at the chart and it has just made a spike up, thinking to enter around the $38 mark, what do you think?

Biosci.capital.partnersDec 15, 2020 9:56 PM

ratsalad The choice to buy, sell, or hold is always yours to make. In my view, it's a very good entry now. Many catalysts are stacking on one another. As their pipeline matures, RGNX stocks will move very fast.

Final Remarks

You don't have to know it all. You just need to continue learning and taking action on what you learn to achieve success in investing and in life. Along the way, make sure you reward yourself to reinforce the positive behavior.

At IBI: All Members Matters. Everyone Is Respected. And, All Voices Are Treasured!

Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

As a medical doctor/market expert, I’m not a registered investment advisor. Despite that I strive to provide the most accurate information, I neither guarantee the accuracy nor timeliness. Past performance does NOT guarantee future results. I reserve the right to make any investment decision for myself and my affiliates pertaining to any security without notification except where it is required by law. I am also NOT responsible for the actions of my affiliates. The thesis that I presented may change anytime due to the changing nature of information itself. Investment in stocks and options can result in a loss of capital. The information presented should NOT be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any form of security. My articles are best utilized as educational and informational materials to assist investors in your own due diligence process. That said, you are expected to perform your own due diligence and take responsibility for your actions. You should also consult with your own financial advisor for specific guidance, as financial circumstances are individualized.

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