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BP, Fat Tails and Risk Management

|Includes: BP p.l.c. (BP)

Ms. Marlys Appleton, governance expert, comments on an earlier blog post I wrote about BP.

<< I believe what happened in this case is connected to internal governance issues at BP. One only has to look at their safety violation record relative to peers such as Exxon and Conoco over the last few years (as reported recently by Bloomberg News) to see that BP accepted hundreds of safety violations as a "cost of doing business". Institutional investors' failure to pay attention to safety violation records at BP reflects their lack of understanding of the need to price in poor governance. BP's safety record was known for years and now the market is forced to acknowledge and price such behavior, with devastating results.

I also think of the Massey coal mine disaster - another company whose safety record was well know. Both boards need a paradigm shift to acknowledge past failures, but for one, it may be too late. Some damages cannot be remedied by compensation alone. The fund is a good start and may reduce the need for litigation though there are likely to be lawsuits. I believe such a devastating social and environmental disaster such as this event should not be mediated through the courts, but that's another topic. Add upon this, the additional layer of inept government regulation, another example of 'poor governance' as a contributing factor.

It is my hope that institutional investors, boards and executive management embark upon a real understanding of what can happen when governance and ethical behavior break down. In the world of emerging risks, acknowledgement of "fat tail" catatrophic events needs to be stepped up with the implementation of a good Enterprise Risk Management ("ERM") process. This information must then be socialized with boards, management, and investors. >>



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