This morning. It's the month's final trading day, and U.S. equity indexes are higher on the month. U.S. equity futures are modestly lower and near the middle of their narrow trading range. The market outlook is "confirmed uptrend". Economic reporting focuses on April U.S. personal income and spending, and at 10:00, May Chicago purchasing manager index. In Asia, equity markets closed mixed. In Europe, equities indexes are also modestly mixed, with the DAX trading at an earlier intraday record. The dollar is weaker. Treasury 10-year yields are slightly higher at 2.4661%. The recent worldwide sovereign bond market rally continues. Spanish and Italian 10-year yields are unchanged. Commodities are mostly lower. Friday's Nikkei 225 June 2014 (NKM4) equity futures slightly higher.
Thursday, major indexes shrugged off mid-morning weakness and rose through the afternoon to end at or near their intraday highs. The S&P 500 (SPX), DJ Industrials (DJI), Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.54%, +0.39%, +0.54%, and +0.46%, respectively. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are +3.88%, +0.74%, +1.71%, and +3.38% higher in 2014, respectively. Volume fell and remained well below its 20-day moving average. NYSE volume fell -14.5% to 0.84x its 20-day moving average.
The DJ Transports (TRAN) rallied from modest mid-afternoon losses and rose +0.43% to a new record close. Momentum indexes also rose. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.30%, but is -5.67% below early March highs. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index rose +0.80%, and the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index rose +0.60%. The QNET and NBI are in correction, down -12.4% and -11.8%, respectively, from recent highs.
Trading desks noted quiet Asian markets, but active European markets following the BNP penalty news. Outside BNP, which is off -4.65%, European financials are mixed. Regarding yesterday's trade, U.S. equities rallied despite weaker than expected 1Q2014 GDP, with views to next week's June 5th ECB meeting and the May U.S. employment report on June 6th. Bond desks saw a continued strong early rally in bonds, with U.S. 10-year yield resistance found at 2.40%.
Today's U.S. economic reporting is heavy. Personal income was in-line, but spending disappointed, falling -0.1% compared to +0.2% survey. Commodity and currency price developments are another focus. Sovereign debt yields are little changed from yesterday. Relative strength indicators have risen, but do not yet suggest that the market is particularly short-term overbought, though the 17.4x price earnings multiple is well in excess of 15.9x historical average.
The 1Q2014 earnings reports began on March 15th, and 492 of 499 SPX companies have now reported, with respective +5.86% EPS and +0.21% revenue surprises.
Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.4x (compared to 17.3x the prior day) 2013 earnings multiple, attention focuses on 2014 earnings and valuations (17.4x times survey $117.93 2014 SPX operating earnings suggests a 2055.61 SPX level this year, a +7.06% rise from yesterday's close).
Technicals were little changed. Most SPX market segments closed higher. Market breadth was positive, and up volume lagged down volume. Volatility fell and remains near 30-day lows. Treasury bond markets strengthened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield rose +2.07 bps to 2.4644%, compared to 2.4431% at the prior close.
This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are up +0.61 bps at 2.4705%, compared to the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are little changed. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields unchanged at +2.86% and +2.96%, respectively, compared to 2.86% and +2.96% the prior day.
U.S. options markets are unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW rose and remains above a neutral range.
In pre-market futures trading, June SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the middle of a 1914-1918 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -0.02 points, the SPM4 future prices at 1915.00, down -2.98 points. The SPX opens +1.69% and +2.49% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +3.69% and +6.99% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1923.43. Initial support is 1913.22, then 1906.42.
"Confirmed Uptrend" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. On May 27th, based on the Nasdaq follow-through and the SPX record close, the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed May 27th at a record 1911.91, +5.30% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th. On March 5, 2014, the Nasdaq peaked at 4,357.97, then fell -8.22% to 3,999.73 before recovering +8.96% to the May 27th 4,237.07 close.
In Asia, equity markets closed mixed. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) fell -0.34%, after reversing early gains. Industrial production was lighter than expected, while inflation was in-line. The NKY is again in correction, -10.2% below its year-end high. On April 21st, its 50-day moving average moved below its 200-day moving average. Its 200-day moving average is now below its 100-day moving average. The Hang Sang index (HSI) closed up +0.31%, after reversing lower from its opening intraday high. The Shanghai composite (SHCOMP) fell -0.07%, reversing lower in late afternoon. Both HSI and SHCOMP 50-day moving averages are also below their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.
Asian economic reporting was light. Commentary focused on currency and commodity developments.
This week, the NKY and HSI rose +0.20% and +0.52%, respectively, while the SHCOMP closed down -0.11%. Last week, the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP closed up +3.59%, +1.10%, and +0.74%, respectively. In May, the NKY closed up +2.29%, the HSI rose +4.28%, and the SHCOMP rose +0.63%. In April, the NKY closed down -3.53%, while the HSI and SHCOMP closed down -0.08% and -0.34%, respectively.
In 2014, the NKY and HSI are down -10.2% and -0.96%, respectively, while the SHCOMP is down -3.63%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.
In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, as the SHIBO 7-day rate rose +1 bp to 3.23%, compared to 3.22% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.
Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Shanghai in neutral ranges. The NKY RSI ended at 57.71, compared to 59.67 the prior day, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI rose to 62.43, compared to 65.27 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI fell to 50.70, compared to 53.92 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.
In Japan, the NKY closed at 14,632.38, compared to 14,681.72 the prior day, -10.2% below its recent year-end 16,291.31 high and -62.4% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index gapped higher to an early 14,741.10 intraday high, but reversed lower late in the morning session, falling to an early afternoon 14,591.62 intraday low. The index trended higher to close with modest losses. Most market segments closed lower. Leaders were telecommunications, utilities, and oil and gas, which rose at least +0.72%. Financials fell -0.18%. Laggards were industrials, technology, and consumer services, which fell at least -0.63%.
In China, the HSI closed at 23,081.65, compared to 23,010.14 at the prior close. The index traded to an early morning 23,178.60 intraday high, but traded narrowly through the session, with a mid-morning 22,993.71 intraday low. Market segments closed mixed. Leaders were consumer services, financials, and consumer goods, which rose at least +0.30%. Laggards were technology, industrials, and oil and gas, which fell at least -0.41. The index closed -3.47% below its recent December 3rd 23,910.47 high, but +26.9% above its 18,185.59 June 4, 2012 low.
In Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,039.21, compared to 2,040.60 at the prior close, +4.57% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index opened unchanged, but fell to a late morning 2,031.38 intraday low, then reversed higher in early afternoon and a mid-afternoon 2,046.43 intraday high. Market segments closed mixed. Leaders were telecommunications, technology, and consumer services, which rose at least +0.37%. Laggards were consumer goods, financials, and oil and gas, which fell at least -0.11%.
In Europe, equities are modestly mixed, with better strength in Frankfurt, where the DAX traded to a new intraday high. The Euro Stoxx50 and CAC 40 closed Wednesday at multi-year highs. Today, the DAX is up +0.03%, while the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, and CAC 40 are down -0.06%, -0.19%, and -0.40%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is up +0.50%. The Italian FTSE MIB is up +0.70%. BNP Paribas SA is down sharply on news that the U.S. government seeks a $20 billion penalty to end a criminal probe that the bank evaded U.S. economic sanctions.
Economic reporting is light. Attention is on recently volatile sovereign bond yields. Other foci are currency and commodity developments. The euro is stronger today compared to the dollar.
European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 61.29, compared to 62.45 at the prior close, above the middle of a neutral (30-70) range, better than its recent February 5th 33.57 low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The indexes lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24th, which marked the 2013 2,494.54 closing low.
The Euro Stoxx50 trades -38.2% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,244.66 record close, the index opened at 3,238, but rallied to a late morning 3,249.05 intraday high. The BNP news sent the index lower in early afternoon, when it fell to its 3,233.86 intraday low. The index currently trades at 3,241.17. Market segments are mixed. Leaders are telecommunications, utilities, and technology, which rose at least +0.20%. Laggards are industrials, consumer services, and financials, which are down at least -0.22%.
This week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +1.24%, +0.61%, +0.45%, and +1.77%, respectively. Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, and DAX rose +0.36%, +0.66%, and +1.64%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 closed down -0.58%. In May, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +1.40%, +1.14%, +0.58%, and +3.52%, respectively. In April, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.16%, +2.75%, +2.18%, and +0.50%, respectively.
In 2014, the indexes are higher. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +4.32%, +1.60%, +5.07%, and +4.07%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.
1Q2014 SPX Earnings. Of 492 (of 499) reporting companies, 363 or 74.1% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.86% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 261 or 53.4% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise is +0.21%. Energy leads with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials have a respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lags with respective +0.35% and -0.69% earnings and revenue surprises.
Valuation. The SPX trades at 17.4x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.3x estimated 2014 earnings ($117.93), 14.6x estimated 2015 earnings ($131.08), and 13.2x estimated 2016 earnings ($145.36). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +7.06%, +11.2%, and 10.9%, respectively.
The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.3x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 12.8x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.36), 11.4x estimated 2015 earnings ($6.00), and 10.3x 2016 earnings ($6.68). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +3.82%, +11.9%, and +11.4%, respectively.
Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets were unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior session. Composite options are bullish, index options are bullish, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.69, compared to 0.90 the prior day, and better than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.78 and 0.74, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.75, compared to 0.93 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.83 and 0.89, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.68, compared to 0.88 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.78 and 0.84, respectively.
NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume fell -14.5% to 544.08 million shares, compared to 635.96 million shares the prior day, 0.84x the 650.06 million shares 20-day moving average. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Advancing stocks led by +1,011 (compared to +18 the prior day) or 1.98:1. Up volume was 2.37:1 down volume.
Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:
· USD LIBOR is 0.08660%, compared to 0.08750% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.22740%, up from 0.22735% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.
· The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 13.050 bps, compared to 13.985 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 20.320 bps, compared to 20.600 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.
· The 3-month Euro basis swap is -8.561, compared to -8.153 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, but far better than a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.
· German 10-year debt yields are 1.37%, compared to 1.35% the prior day.
· Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.58%, compared to 0.58% the prior day.
· Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields remain near their multi-year lows. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.86%, compared to 2.86% the prior day. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.96%, compared to 2.96% the prior day and their May 11th 2.911% recent low. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt years peaked at 7.621% and 7.261%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.
· U.S. Treasury yields are slightly higher, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.375% and 2.471%, respectively, compared to 0.375% and 2.464% Thursday. The yield curve widened +0.610 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at +2.096%, compared to 2.089% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.429% on May 1, 2013, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.
· The U.S. dollar is weaker compared to the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. The dollar trades at US$80.457, compared to US$80.416 intraday low and US$80.494 the prior day, and mixed compared to its $79.927 50-day, US$80.148 100-day, and US$80.377 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3610, compared to a US$1.3618 intraday high and US$1.3602 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3773 50-day and US$1.3739 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥101.67, compared to ¥101.79 the prior day. The yen trades better than its 50-day moving average ¥101.79, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.
· Citigroup Economic Surprise Index worsened to -2.90, compared to +1.90 the prior day, its first negative reading since May 22nd. The index is worse compared to its respective +0.42 5-day and +0.19 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th . After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.
· Commodities prices are mostly lower, with lower energy, lower precious metals, mixed aluminum and copper, and mostly lower agriculture prices.
· The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) fell -0.94% to 11.57, compared to 11.68 at the prior close. The VIX is -7.65% below the 12.53 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 17.50. Its 30-day low is 11.36. The index's recent closing low was 11.05 on March 14, 2013. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.
· The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 15.93, up +2.65% from 15.52 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades -2.14% below its 16.28 20-day moving average, -19.1% below the 19.70 30-day high, and +6.60% above the 14.94 30-day low.
· The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 14.75, down -1.40% compared to 14.96 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades -1.75% below its 15.01 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.
· CBOE SKEW (SKEW) rose +1.31% to 125.81, compared to 124.18 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120), but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.20 on December 20, 2013. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, though not in October or November. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.
U.S. Economic Reporting and News:
- At 8:30, April personal income rose +0.3%, compared to +0.3% survey and +0.5% prior.
- April personal spending fell -0.1%, compared to +0.2% survey and +1.0% revised prior.
- April MoM PCE deflator rose +0.2%, compared to +0.2% survey and prior.
- April YoY core PCE rose +1.4%, compared to +1.4% survey and +1.2% prior.
- At 9:00, May ISM Milwaukee rose to 63.49, compared to 52.00 survey and 47.26 prior.
- May final University of Michigan confidence, with 82.5 survey and 81.8 prior.
Overseas Economic Reporting and News:
- Japan - April YoY vehicle production rose +3.4%, compared to +14.0% prior.
- Germany - April MoM retail sales fell -0.9%, compared to +0.2% survey and +0.1% revised prior.
Thursday's Trade. On lower and below average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes rallied moderately, with the SPX, NYSE composite, and TRAN closing at record highs. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +0.54%, +0.39%, +0.54%, and +0.46%, respectively. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are at least +0.74% higher in 2014. Market breadth was positive, with gainers 1.98x losing stocks. Most SPX market segments closed higher. Leaders were basic materials, oil and gas, and health care, which fell at least -0.71%. Laggards were financials and utilities, which rose at least +0.10% and telecommunications, which fell -0.01%.
Other notable indexes also rose. The TRAN closed at another record, but without DJ Theory confirmation, as the DJI closed -0.10% below its recent May 23rd record close. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.30%, and closed -5.67% below its March 4th record close. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) rose +0.80%, but remains in correction, -12.4% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) rose +0.60%, and remains in correction, down -11.8% from its recent February 25th record high.
NYSE volume fell -14.5% to 544.08 million shares, compared to 635.96 million shares the prior day, 0.84x the 650.06 million shares 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets were volatile, but weakened. The U.S. 10-year yield opened at 2.4466%, and fell to a late morning 2.4006% intraday low before rising through the afternoon to a late 2.4679% intraday high. On the session, the yield rose +2.13 bps to 2.4644%, compared to the 2.4431% prior close.
From its prior day 1911.91 SPX close, June 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a modestly higher open. In early trading, the index rallied to 1916, but after 10:00 fell back to breakeven. The index rallied through the session's remainder and ended at the intraday high. The index closed at 1920.03, a new record close. The index closed +78.7% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.
From its prior day 8,075.88 record close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) rose +0.43%, compared to the DJI's +0.39% gain. The TRAN rose above 8,100 in early trading, but fell back to a mid-morning 8,065.79 intraday low, then traded narrowly through mid-afternoon. The index trended higher through the final two hours to a late 8,110.46 intraday high. The index closed at 8,110.35, its 6th consecutive record close, though without a similar DJI confirming record. Volume fell -7.21% to 9.559 million shares, compared to 10.302 million shares the prior session, and 0.93x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed +3.42% and +5.68% above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +7.94% and +12.9% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.
Market volatility rose, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 11.57, compared to 11.68 at the prior close. The index fell to an early 11.41 intraday low, but rose to a mid-afternoon 11.82 intraday high before trending lower. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW rose +01.31 to 125.81, compared to 124.18 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.
The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) improved to 64.69, compared to 61.54 the prior day, moving above the middle of a neutral range, but far better than an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI is also down from an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, but above earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.
This week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +1.03%, +0.56%, +1.48%, and +0.66%, respectively. Last week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +1.21%, +0.70%, +2.33%, and +0.74%, respectively. In May, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +1.92%, +0.71%, +3.24%, and +1.18%, respectively. In April, the SPX, DJI, and NYSE composite closed up +0.62%, +0.75%, and +0.94%, respectively, while the Nasdaq closed off -2.01%.
In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +3.88%, +0.74%, +1.71%, and +3.38%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.
KBW Bank Index (BKX). On lower and below average volume, the BKX rose +0.03% to 68.66, compared to 68.64 at the prior day's close, its 35th consecutive close below 70.0, -5.83% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. In early trading, the index rose to its 68.82 intraday high, but fell to a mid-morning 68.37 intraday low as the 10-year yield tested resistance at 2.40%. The index improved as 10-year yields rose through the afternoon, ending with its modest gain. Volume fell -3.26% to 36.748 million shares, compared to 37.986 million shares the prior day, and 0.91x the 40.357 million share 15-day moving average.
Large cap banks outperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) fell -0.19%.
This week, the BKX is up +0.79%, compared to last week, when the BKX closed up +1.96%. In May, the BKX is up +0.34%, compared to April, when the BKX closed off -5.34%. In 2014, the BKX is down -0.87%, compared to the SPX's +3.88% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.
The BKX is now +16.0% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +110.9% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +78.7% in the same period.
The BKX index closed -43.3% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +268.7% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.
Technical indicators were little changed. The index closed +1.02% above and -1.18% below its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and -0.95% below and +2.12% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving average. The 20-day moving average rose +1 bp to 67.97. The 69.48 50-day moving average fell -4 bps. Its 100-day moving average fell -1 bp, and the 200-day moving average rose +2 bps to 67.23. The 20-day closed (by -1.51 points) below the 50-day, and the negative gap narrowed +5 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +2.25 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -5 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +2.09 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap fell -2 bps.
The directional movement indicator narrowed to +2.8259, compared to +3.034 the prior day, its 3rd consecutive positive reading. Relative strength rose to 52.55, compared to 52.40 the prior day, in the middle of a neutral range, up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd, but down from an overbought 75.56 and 71.88 on January 9th and 10th, respectively. The recent low RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 68.86; next support is 68.41.
SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR