This morning. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher, following yesterday's record S&P 500 (SPX) and NYSE composite record closes. The Nasdaq closed at a multi-year high, -4.59% below its March 2000 record. This morning's economic reporting focuses on the latest weeks' initial and continuing jobless claims, and after the open, June Philadelphia Fed and the May leading index. The market outlook is "confirmed uptrend". In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, where Japan closed at intraday highs, while China fell and closed near intraday lows. In early afternoon, European bourses are up at least +0.78% and near their intraday highs. The euro is stronger compared to the dollar. U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are lower at 2.5663%. Commodities are mostly higher. Friday's Nikkei 225 June 2014 (NKM4) equity futures are modestly lower.
Wednesday, on increased and slightly above average volume, major U.S. indexes rose moderately. The S&P 500 index (SPX), DJ Industrial index (DJI), Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.77%, +0.58%, +0.59%, and +0.82%, respectively. This week, all are at least +0.78% higher. In June, indexes are up least +1.33%. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are +5.88%, +1.99%, +4.46%, and +5.53% higher, respectively. NYSE volume rose +4.67% to 1.02x its 20-day moving average.
Other notable indexes were mixed. The DJ Transports (TRAN) rose +1.51%. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.55% to close -2.11% below early March highs. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index rose +1.18%, but the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index rose +0.80%. The QNET is no longer in correction, down -9.32%, while the NBI closed -8.59% from its recent high.
Trading desks report a busy overnight as overseas markets react to yesterday's FOMC actions. Japan rallied on the news, China's weakness wasn't easily attributed to news flows, and Europe's strength seems best connected to prospects for easy monetary policy in both the U.S. and the Eurozone. Regarding Wednesday's trade, nothing happened until the 2:00 release of the FOMC action report, when markets began an upward move that strengthened into the close. Notably, relative strength indicators have moved to the upper end of neutral ranges, not yet signaling overbought conditions. Traders expect an uncontroversial FOMC meeting as economic trends have tracked the last statement's (April 30th) expectations, with another $10 billion taper, a conclusion of quantitative easing by year-end and no increase in the Fed Funds rate before mid-next year.
The 2Q2014 earnings seasons began June 18th, with a positive earnings reports from Adobe Systems (ABDE) and Federal Express (NYSE:FDX). In 1Q2014, 499 of 499 SPX companies reported with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.20% revenue surprises. Forward estimates moved up. Compared to February 28th, the May-end 2014 EPS estimate rose +0.39% to $118.20, from $117.74. Respective estimates for 20014, 2015 and 2016 are now $118.23, $131.52 and $145.95, respectively compared to $117.74, $130.81 and $144.98 at February-end, respective increases of +0.41%, +0.55% and +0.67%. Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.8x (compared to 17.6x the prior day) 2013 earnings multiple, attention focuses on 2014 earnings and valuations (17.8x times survey $118.23 2014 SPX operating earnings suggests a 2100.48 SPX level in the next year, a +7.33% rise from yesterday's close).
Technicals were little changed. Led by utilities, all SPX market segments closed at least +0.49% higher. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Volatility fell to levels near the lower end of historical ranges. Treasury bond markets strengthened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield fell -6.79 bps to 2.5844%, compared to 2.6523% at the prior close.
This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are down -1.63 bps at 2.5681%, compared to the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are also stronger. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are 2.68% and +2.90%, respectively, compared to 2.76% and +2.86% the prior day.
U.S. options markets are unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW fell slightly, and closed at 129.53, below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.
In pre-market futures trading, June SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the middle of a 1932-1936 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -0.16 points, the SPM4 future prices at 1950.00, up +1.47 points. The SPX opens +1.50% and +3.35% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +4.86% and +7.85% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1963.38. Initial support is 1944.93, then 1932.89.
"Confirmed Uptrend" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. On May 27th , the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed June 18th at a record 1956.98, +7.78% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th, the low close. On June 18, 2014, the Nasdaq reached a multi-year 4,357.97 high (compared to its 4,572.83 March 31, 2000 record close), then fell -8.22% to 3,999.73 before recovering +9.08% to the June 18th 4,362.84 close. Since May 27th, there was one distribution on the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite.
In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, with Japan rallying strongly, but China reversed early gains to distribute and close near their intraday lows. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) rose +1.62%. The Hang Seng (HSI) Index fell -0.06%, while the Shanghai SE (SHCOMP) lost -1.01%. The NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP 50-day moving averages are below their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.
Asian economic commentary focused on yesterday's FOMC action report.
This week, the NKY is up +1.74%, while the HSI and SHCOMP are down -0.65% and -2.27%, respectively. Last week, the NKY closed up +0.14%, the HSI rose +1.60%, and the SHCOMP rose +2.01%. In June, the NKY is up +4.98%, the HSI is up +0.37%, and the SHCOMP is down -0.76%. In May, the NKY closed up +2.29%, the HSI rose +4.28%, and the SHCOMP rose +0.63%.
In 2014, the NKY is down -5.71%, the HSI is down -0.59%. The SHCOMP is down -4.36%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.
In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, as the SHIBO 7-day rate rose +4 bps to 3.11%, compared to 3.07% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.
Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Shanghai in neutral ranges. The NKY RSI rose to 67.95, compared to 61.98, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI fell to 56.54, compared to 57.12 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI fell to 43.39, compared to 52.72 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.
In Japan, the NKY closed at 15,361.16, compared to 15,115.80 the prior day, -5.71% below its recent year-end 16,291.31 high and -60.5% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index traded at 15,150 in early trading, then rallied to 15,350 by late morning. The index set a 15,375.38 intraday high in early afternoon. All market segments closed at least +1.16% higher. Leaders were financials, consumer discretionary and consumer staples, which rose at least +1.74%. Laggards were industrials, technology, and utilities.
In China, in Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,023.74, compared to 2,055.52 at the prior close, +4.36% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index set an early 2,059.22, then fell through late afternoon 2,017.84 intraday low. All market segments closed at least -0.38% lower. Leaders were telecommunications, energy, and financials. Laggards were materials, consumer discretionary, and technology, which fell at least -2.16%.
In Europe, equities opened higher and are near their intraday highs. The Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +1.40%, +0.78%, +1.13%, and +0.92%, respectively. The Euro Stoxx50 trades intraday at a multi-year high. The Spanish IBEX 35 is up +1.20%. The Italian FTSE MIB is up +1.19%.
Economic reporting is light. The euro is stronger compared to the dollar.
European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 68.11, compared to 59.51 at the prior close, moving to the upward end of a neutral (30-70) range, better than its recent February 5th 33.57 low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The indexes lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24th, which marked the 2013 2,494.54 closing low.
The Euro Stoxx50 trades -36.7% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,279.20 close, the index rallied to 3,305 in early trading, 3,315 in late morning, and to a mid-afternoon 3,325.50 intraday high. The index currently trades at 3,323.29. All market segments are at least +0.56% higher. Leaders are materials, financials, and industrials, which are up at least +1.56%. Laggards are technology, telecommunications, and health care.
This week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +1.29%, +0.79%, +0.85%, and +1.10%, respectively. Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -0.35%, -1.17%, -0.83%, and -0.74%, respectively. In June, the Euro Stoxx50, CAC 40, and DAX are up +2.48%, +1.38%, and +0.79%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 is down -0.19%. In May, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.44%, +0.95%, +0.72%, +3.54%, respectively.
In 2014, the indexes are higher. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +6.95%, +1.22%, +6.65%, and +4.92%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.
2Q2014 SPX Earnings. The 2nd quarter earnings season began June 18th, and now 4 of 499 SPX reporting firms have reported, with respective +8.64% EPS and +2.88% revenue surprises.
In 1Q2014, of 499 (of 499) reporting companies, 370 or 74.5% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.91% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 263 or 53.0% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise was +0.20%. Energy led with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials had a respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lagged with respective +0.34% and -0.66% earnings and revenue surprises.
Valuation. The SPX trades at 17.8x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.6x estimated 2014 earnings ($118.23), 14.9x estimated 2015 earnings ($131.52), and 13.4x estimated 2016 earnings ($145.95). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +7.33%, +11.3%, and 11.0%, respectively.
The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.8x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 13.4x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.33), 11.9x estimated 2015 earnings ($6.00), and 10.7x 2016 earnings ($6.68). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +3.36%, +12.4%, and +11.4%, respectively.
Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets are unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior session. Composite options are bullish, index options are bullish, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.76, compared to 0.81 the prior day, and better than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.76 and 0.77, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.90, compared to 0.93 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.81 and 0.84, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.65, compared to 0.74 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.74 and 0.74, respectively.
NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume rose +4.67% to 628.08 million shares, compared to 600.05 million shares the prior day, 1.02x the 613.21 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Advancing stocks led by +1,435 (compared to +754 the prior day) or 2.77:1. Up volume was 4.68:1 down volume.
Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:
· USD LIBOR is 0.09600%, compared to 0.09600% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.22960%, down from 0.23100% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.
· The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 12.600 bps, compared to 12.400 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 16.950 bps, compared to 19.300 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.
· The 3-month Euro basis swap is -12.256 bps, compared to -11.321 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, and within a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.
· German 10-year debt yields are 1.33%, compared to 1.38% the prior day.
· Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.59%, compared to 0.60% the prior day.
· Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields rose. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.68%, compared to 2.76% the prior day, modestly above the U.S. 10-year yield and compares to its 2.575% June 9th low. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.90%, compared to 2.86% the prior day and their June 9th 2.704% recent low. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt years peaked at 7.62% and 7.26%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.
· U.S. Treasury yields are modestly lower, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.440% and 2.581%, respectively, compared to 0.444% and 2.584% Wednesday. The yield curve widened +0.030 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at 2.141%, compared to 2.141% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.429% on May 1, 2013, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.
· The U.S. dollar is weaker compared to the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. The dollar trades at US$80.226, compared to US$80.147 intraday low and US$80.584 the prior day, and better compared to its $80.077 50-day, US$80.113 100-day, and US$80.286 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3626, compared to a US$1.3644 intraday high and US$1.3595 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3719 50-day and US$1.3734 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥101.83, compared to ¥101.93 the prior day. The yen trades better than its 50-day moving average ¥102.07, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.
· Citigroup Economic Surprise Index improved to -11.50, compared to -11.40 the prior day, its 12th consecutive negative reading. The index is worse compared to its respective -15.12 5-day and -14.20 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th . After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.
· Commodities prices are mostly higher, with higher energy, higher precious metals, higher aluminum and copper, and mixed agriculture prices.
· The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) fell -12.0% to 10.61, compared to 12.06 at the prior close. The VIX is -9.01% below the 11.66 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 14.49. Its 30-day low is 10.57. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.
· The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 12.60, down -9.20% compared to 13.88 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades -15.0% below its 14.82 20-day moving average, -28.3% below the 17.59 30-day high, and +1.464% above the 12.424 30-day low.
· The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 12.03, down -4.30% compared to 12.57 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades -13.5% below its 13.91 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.
· CBOE SKEW (SKEW) fell -0.50% to 129.53, compared to 130.18 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120), but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.20 on December 20, 2013. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, though not in October or November. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.
U.S. Economic Reporting and News:
- At 8:30, the latest weeks' initial and continuing jobless claims were 312K and 2561K, compared to 313K and 2600K survey and 318K and 2615K revised prior.
- At 10:00, June Philadelphia Fed business outlook, with 14.0 survey and 15.4 prior.
- May leading index, with +0.6% survey and +0.4% prior.
Overseas Economic Reporting and News:
- Japan - April MoM all industry activity index fell -4.3%, compared to -4.1% survey and +1.5% prior.
- United Kingdom - May MoM retail sales ex auto fell -0.5%, compared to -0.6% survey and +1.7% revised prior.
Wednesday's Trade. On greater and above average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes rallied subsequent to the 2:00 FOMC action report. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.77%, +0.58%, +0.59%, and +0.82%, respectively. The SPX and NYSE composite closed at new record highs. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are at least +1.99% higher in 2014. Market breadth was positive, with gainers 2.77x losing stocks. All SPX market segments closed at least +0.49% higher. Leaders were utilities, consumer staples, and materials, which rose at least +1.09%. Financials rose +0.65%. Laggards were technology, industrials, and telecommunications.
Other notable indexes closed mixed. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.55% and closed -2.11% below its March 4th record. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) rose +1.18%, and fell out of correction, -9.32% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) rose +0.80%, down -8.59% from its recent February 25th record high.
NYSE volume rose +4.67% to 628.08 million shares, compared to 600.05 million shares the prior day, 1.02x the 613.21 million share 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets strengthened. The U.S. 10-year yield opened at 2.6550%, and strengthened modestly through late afternoon, before rallying more strongly through the session's end. At the close, the yield fell -6.79 bps to 2.5844\5, compared to 2.6523% at the prior close.
From its prior day 1937.78 SPX close, June 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a flat open, and the index traded narrowly through the morning session, then rallied after the 2:00 release of the FOMC action report, with a late 1957.74 intraday high. The index closed at 19565.98, +82.1% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.
From its prior day 8,056.30 close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) rose +1.51%, compared to the DJI's +0.58% gain. The TRAN rose to 8,140 by mid-morning and traded narrowly until 2:00, then rallied to a late 8,183.21 intraday high. The index closed at 8,178.03, -0.45% below its June 9th 8,214.99 record close. Volume rose +2.20% to 11.221 million shares, compared to 10.978 million shares the prior session, and 0.89x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed +1.21% and +4.38% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +7.43% and +12.0% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.
Market volatility fell -12.0%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 10.61, compared to 12.06 at the prior close, its lowest close since the early 1990s. The index moved narrowly around 11.80 through 2:00, then moved lower through the release of the FOMC action report and Yellen press conference, with a late 10.57 intraday low. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW fell -0.50% to 129.53, compared to 130.18 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.
The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) rose to 69.10, compared to 63.74 the prior day, at the upper end of a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.73 on June 9th, but better than 58.90 on June 12th, and an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI compares to an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, and compares to earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.
This week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +1.08%, +0.78%, +1.21%, and +1.03%, respectively. Last week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down -0.68%, -0.88%, -0.25%, and -0.44%, respectively. In June, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +1.74%, +1.13%, +2.83%, and +2.04%, respectively, compared to May, when the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +2.10%, +0.82%, +3.11%, and +1.22%, respectively.
In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +5.88%, +1.99%, +4.46%, and +5.53%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.
KBW Bank Index (BKX). On greater and above average volume, the BKX rose +0.42% to 71.39, compared to 71.09 at the prior day's close, its 10th consecutive close above 70, but -2.50% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. The index set an early 70.08 intraday low, but immediately reversed higher and rose to an early afternoon 71.34 intraday high. The index traded narrowly to the close. Volume rose +8.60% to 44.322 million shares, compared to 40.820 million shares the prior day, and 1.15x the 38.614 million share 15-day moving average.
Large cap banks underperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) rose +0.60%.
This week, the BKX is up +0.96%. Last week, the BKX closed off -0.16%. In June, the BKX is up +3.60%, compared to May, when the BKX closed up +2.77%. In 2014, the BKX is up +3.08%, compared to the SPX's +5.88% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.
The BKX is now +20.6% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +119.3% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +82.1% in the same period.
The BKX index closed -41.0% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +283.4% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.
Technical indicators were little changed. The index closed +2.21% and +3.41% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +2.96% and +5.47% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving average. The 20-day moving average rose +21 bps to 69.84. The 69.03 50-day moving average rose +1 bp. Its 69.34 100-day moving average rose +3 bps, and the 200-day moving average rose +5 bps to 67.69. The 20-day closed (by +0.81 points) above the 50-day, and the gap widened +20 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +1.35 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -3 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +1.65 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap fell -2 bps.
The directional movement indicator widened to +13.130, compared to +7.651 the prior day, its 16th consecutive positive reading. Relative strength rose to 63.23, compared to 61.37 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.14 on June 9th but up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd. The lowest RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 71.65; next support is 70.94.
SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR