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U.S. Futures Slightly Lower; Asia Closes Mixed; Europe Lower On Weaker PMIs

This morning. U.S. equity futures are modestly lower after fair value adjustment, following Friday's record S&P 500 (SPX), DJ Industrials (DJI), and NYSE composite record closes. Economic reporting focuses on worldwide PMIs, which generally surprised positively in Asia, but have disappointed in Europe. U.S. PMIs are released after the market open. The market outlook is "confirmed uptrend". In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, with greater weakness in Hong Kong. In early afternoon, European bourses are moderately lower. The euro is weaker compared to the dollar. U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are lower. Commodities are mixed. Tuesday's Nikkei 225 June 2014 (NKM4) equity futures are modestly lower.

Friday, on quadruple options expiration spurred above average volume, major U.S. indexes rallied modestly. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.17%, +0.15%, +0.20%, and +0.14%, respectively. Last week, all gained at least +1.02%. In June, indexes are up least +1.38%. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are +6.20%, +2.23%, +4.58%, and +5.94% higher, respectively. NYSE volume rose +165.4% to 2.56x its 20-day moving average.

Other notable indexes were mixed. The DJ Transports (TRAN) rose +0.21%, but closed -0.12% below its June 9th record. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.37% to close -1.67% below early March highs. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index fell -0.15%, but the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index rose +1.93%. The QNET is in correction, down -10.2%, from recent highs, while the NBI closed -6.51% below its recent high.

Trading desks report generally poor trading overseas, with trends led by regional PMI reports. The Wall Street Journal reports that BNP Paribas SA (BNP) is close to a penalty agreement with the U.S. Justice Department on terms that are less punitive than earlier discussed. Broader narratives remain unchanged. The next FOMC meeting is July 29-30. A quiet trading day is expected as news flows and earnings reports are slow and few. The equity bias appears higher, with expectations that gains will become more difficult, compared to the recent linear move higher. Conviction is low.

The 2Q2014 earnings seasons began June 18th, and now 7 of 500 SPX companies have reported with respective -1.36% and +1.08% adjusted EPS and revenues surprises. In 1Q2014, 499 of 499 SPX companies reported with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.20% revenue surprises. Forward estimates moved up. Compared to February 28th, the May-end 2014 EPS estimate rose +0.39% to $118.20, from $117.74. Respective estimates for 2014, 2015 and 2016 are now $118.20, $131.49 and $145.94, respectively compared to $117.74, $130.81 and $144.98 at February-end, respective increases of +0.38%, +0.52% and +0.67%. Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.8x (compared to 17.8x the prior day) 2013 earnings multiple, attention focuses on 2014 earnings and valuations (17.8x times survey 2014 SPX operating earnings suggests a 2106.27 SPX level in the next year, a +7.31% rise from yesterday's close).

Technicals were little changed. SPX market segments closed mixed. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Volatility fell to levels near the lower end of historical ranges. Treasury bond markets strengthened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield fell -1.54 bps to 2.6052%, compared to 2.6206% at the prior close.

This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are down -0.99 bps at 2.5953%, compared to the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are little changed. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are 2.72% and +2.94%, respectively, compared to 2.73% and +2.95% the prior day.

U.S. options markets worsened to neutral to bullish, compared to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW rose +3.35% to a record 143.26, compared to 138.61 the prior day, well above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.

In pre-market futures trading, June SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the bottom of a 1952-1959 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of +1.47 points, the SPM4 future prices at 1954.25, down -0.47 points. The SPX opens +1.43% and +3.45% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +4.98% and +7.98% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1964.80. Initial support is 1960.06, then 1957.24.

"Confirmed Uptrend" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. On May 27th , the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed June 19th at a record 1959.48, +7.92% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th, the recent low close. On June 18, 2014, the Nasdaq reached a multi-year 4,357.97 high (compared to its 4,572.83 March 31, 2000 record close), then fell -8.22% to 3,999.73 before recovering +9.08% to the June 18th 4,362.84 close. Since May 27th, there was one distribution on the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite.

In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, with greater weakness in Hong Kong. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) rose +0.13%. The Hang Seng (HSI) Index fell -1.68% and closed at its intraday low. The Shanghai SE (SHCOMP) fell -0.11%. The NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP 50-day moving averages are below their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.

Economic reporting was light to nil. Commentary focused on recent equity strength in Japan and weakness in China.

Last week, the NKY closed up +1.67%, while the HSI and SHCOMP closed down -0.54% and -2.13%, respectively. The prior week, the NKY closed up +0.14%, the HSI rose +1.60%, and the SHCOMP rose +2.01%. In June, the NKY is up +5.04%, the HSI is down -1.20%, and the SHCOMP is down -0.73%. In May, the NKY closed up +2.29%, the HSI rose +4.28%, and the SHCOMP rose +0.63%.

In 2014, the NKY is down -5.66%, the HSI is down -2.15%. The SHCOMP is down -4.33%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.

In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, as the SHIBO 7-day rate rose +6 bps to 3.45%, compared to 3.39% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.

Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show Tokyo at the top of a neutral range, while Hong Kong and Shanghai are in a neutral range. The NKY RSI rose to 67.87, compared to 67.40 the prior session, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI rose to 43.55, compared to 57.41 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI fell to 43.73, compared to 44.38 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.

In Japan, the NKY closed at 15,369.28, compared to 15,349.42 the prior day, -5.66% below its recent year-end 16,291.31 high and -60.5% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index opened higher and rose to a late morning 15,422.67 intraday high, then fell back to 15,360 support through the afternoon, with a mid-afternoon 15,335.88 intraday low. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were materials, technology, and consumer discretionary, which rose at least +0.35%. Laggards were consumer staples, utilities, and telecommunications, which fell at least -0.01%.

In China, in Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,024.37, compared to 2,026.67 at the prior close, +3.81% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index opened lower but reversed higher to an early 2,033.02 intraday high, then traded narrowly around breakeven through the session, weakening to a late 2,022.95 intraday low. Market segments closed mixed. Leaders were technology, materials, and consumer staples, which rose at least +0.72%. Laggards were energy, utilities, and financials, which fell at least -0.26%.

In Europe, equities opened modestly lower, but fell sharply to early morning losses, then improved to moderate losses in early afternoon. The Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, DAX are down -0.37%, -0.26%, -0.37%, and -0.39%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is down -0.33%. The Italian FTSE MIB is down -1.12%.

Economic reporting focuses on European PMIs, which generally came in light. The euro is weaker compared to the dollar.

European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 58.60, compared to 62.45 at the prior close, back in the middle of a neutral (30-70) range, better than its recent February 5th 33.57 low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The indexes lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24, 2013, which marked the year's 2,494.54 closing low.

The Euro Stoxx50 trades -37.3% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,302.36 close, the index fell to an early 3,270.11 intraday low, but improved by late morning to 3,295, where it has found resistance. The index currently trades at 3,289.88. Most market segments are lower. Leaders are energy, which is up +0.65%, and health care and financials, which are down at least -0.23%. Laggards are materials, technology, and industrials, which are down at least -0.57%.

Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, and DAX rose +0.59%, +0.70%, and +0.75%, while the CAC 40 fell -0.04%. The prior week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -0.35%, -1.17%, -0.83%, and -0.74%, respectively. In June, the Euro Stoxx50, CAC 40, and DAX are up +1.38%, +0.07%, and +0.04%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 is down -0.60%. In May, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.44%, +0.95%, +0.72%, +3.54%, respectively.

In 2014, the indexes are higher. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +5.81%, +0.81%, +5.28%, and +4.13%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.

2Q2014 SPX Earnings. The 2nd quarter earnings season began June 18th, and now 7 of 500 SPX reporting firms have reported, with respective -1.36% EPS and +1.08% revenue surprises.

In 1Q2014, of 499 (of 499) reporting companies, 370 or 74.5% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.91% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 263 or 53.0% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise was +0.20%. Energy led with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials had a respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lagged with respective +0.34% and -0.66% earnings and revenue surprises.

Valuation. The SPX trades at 17.8x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.6x estimated 2014 earnings ($118.23), 14.9x estimated 2015 earnings ($131.52), and 13.4x estimated 2016 earnings ($145.95). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +7.33%, +11.3%, and 11.0%, respectively.

The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.4x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 13.4x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.33), 11.9x estimated 2015 earnings ($6.00), and 10.7x 2016 earnings ($6.68). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +3.36%, +12.4%, and +11.4%, respectively.

Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets worsened to neutral to bullish, from bullish the prior session. Composite options are bullish, index options are bullish, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.77, compared to 0.67 the prior day, and worse than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.74 and 0.75, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.84, compared to 0.89 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.87 and 0.84, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.75, compared to 0.56 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.67 and 0.71, respectively.

NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. On quadruple options expiration, volume rose +165.4% to 1.72 billion shares, compared to 648.91 million shares the prior day, 2.58x the 673.55 millions share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Advancing stocks led by +451 (compared to +425 the prior day) or 1.34:1. Up volume was 1.27:1 down volume.

Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:

· USD LIBOR is 0.09530%, compared to 0.09550% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.23260%, down from 0.23060% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.

· The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 13.060 bps, compared to 12.760 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 15.600 bps, compared to 16.700 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.

· The 3-month Euro basis swap is -8.445 bps, compared to -8.645 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, and within a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.

· German 10-year debt yields are 1.33%, compared to 1.34% the prior day.

· Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.58%, compared to 0.59% the prior day.

· Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are mixed. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.72%, compared to 2.73% the prior day, modestly above the U.S. 10-year yield and compares to its 2.575% June 9th low. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.94%, compared to 2.95% the prior day and their June 9th 2.704% recent low. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt years peaked at 7.62% and 7.26%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.

· U.S. Treasury yields are modestly mixed, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.460% and 2.604%, respectively, compared to 0.456% and 2.605% Friday. The yield curve narrowed -0.500 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at 2.144%, compared to 2.149% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.429% on May 1, 2013, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.

· The U.S. dollar is stronger compared to the euro, but weaker compared to the Japanese yen and British pound. The dollar trades at US$80.348, compared to US$80.235 intraday low and US$80.372 the prior day, and better compared to its $80.110 50-day, US$80.097 100-day, and US$80.277 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3583, compared to a US$1.3600 intraday low and US$1.3708 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3708 50-day and US$1.3736 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥101.84, compared to ¥102.07 the prior day. The yen trades worse than its 50-day moving average ¥102.08, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.

· Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is unchanged at -10.20, compared to -10.20 the prior day, its 14th consecutive negative reading. The index is better compared to its respective -11.78 5-day and -13.54 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th . After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.

· Commodities prices are mixed, with higher energy, lower precious metals, mixed aluminum and copper, and mostly higher agriculture prices.

Volatility, Skew:

· The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) rose +2.17% to 10.85, compared to 10.62 at the prior close. The VIX is -5.95% below the 11.54 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 14.03. Its 30-day low is 10.34. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.

· The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 13.26, down -8.74% compared to 12.78 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades -8.88% below its 14.55 20-day moving average, -24.6% below the 17.59 30-day high, and +7.80% above the 12.30 30-day low.

· The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 12.44, up +7.89% compared to 11.53 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades -8.74% below its 13.77 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.

· CBOE SKEW (SKEW) rose +3.35 to a record 143.26, compared to 138.61 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120) and well above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.20 on December 20, 2013. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, as occurred last December, ahead of market declines last January. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.

U.S. Economic Reporting and News:

  • At 8:30, May Chicago Fed national activity index, with +0.20 survey and -0.32 prior.
  • At 9:45, June preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI, with 56.0 survey and 56.4 prior.
  • At 10:00, May existing home sales, with +1.9% survey and +1.3% prior.

Overseas Economic Reporting and News:

  • China - June preliminary HSBC manufacturing PMI was 50.8, compared to 49.7 survey and 49.4 prior.
  • Japan - June preliminary Markit/JMMA manufacturing was 51.1, compared to 50.1 survey and 49.9 prior.
  • Eurozone - June preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 51.9, compared to 52.2 survey and prior. Markit services PMI was 52.8, compared to 53.3 survey and 53.2 prior. Markit composite PMI was 52.8, compared to 53.4 survey and 53.5 prior.
  • France - June preliminary Markit composite PMI was 48.0, compared to 49.3 survey and prior. Markit manufacturing PMI was 47.8, compared to 49.5 survey and 49.6 prior. Markit Services PMI was 48.2, compared to 49.4 survey and 49.1 prior.
  • Germany - June preliminary Markit/BME manufacturing was 52.4, compared to 52.5 survey and 52.3 prior. Markit services PMI was 54.8, compared to 55.8 survey and 56.0 prior. Markit/BME composite PMI was 54.2, compared to 55.5 survey and 55.6 prior.
  • April current account was 21.5, compared to 19.6 billion revised prior.
  • Italy - April MoM industrial sales fell -0.2%, compared to +0.4% revised prior. MoM industrial orders rose +3.8%, compared to +1.0% survey and +1.4% revised prior.

Company Ratings/News:

  • BNP Paribas (BNP) - Agreed to a $9 billion penalty to settle charges that the bank hid $30 billion in prohibited transactions.

Friday's Trade. On greater and above average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes closed mixed, though both the SPX and NYSE composite closed at new records. The SPX, DJI, and NYSE composite rose +0.13%, +0.09%, and +0.25%, respectively, while the Nasdaq close down -0.08%. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are at least +2.08% higher in 2014. Market breadth was positive, with gainers 1.32x losing stocks. Most SPX market segments closed higher. Leaders were utilities, consumer staples, and energy, which rose at least +0.62%. Financials fell -0.15%. Laggards were consumer discretionary, technology, and materials, which fell at least -0.18%.

Other notable indexes closed mixed. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.08% and closed -2.04% below its March 4th record. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) fell -0.83%, and returned to correction, -10.1% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) rose +0.34%, down -8.28% from its recent February 25th record high.

On quadruple options expiration, NYSE volume rose +165.4% to 1.722 billion shares, compared to 648.91 million shares the prior day, 2.56x the 673.55 million share 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets strengthened. The U.S. 10-year yield opened at 2.6224%, traded narrowly through 8:00, then weakened to the 2.6570% intraday high. The index fell back to 2.6200% by late morning, and strengthen into the close. At the close, the yield fell -1.54 bps to 2.6052%, compared to 2.6206% at the prior close.

From its prior day and record 1959.48 SPX close, June 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a moderately higher open. By late morning, the index improved to the 1963.91 intraday high, then eased back to 1961 by mid-afternoon. The index closed at 1962.87, another record close, +82.6% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.

From its prior day 8,178.03 close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) rose +0.21%, compared to the DJI's +0.15% gain. The TRAN rose through the morning session to a late morning 8,217.03 intraday high, then fell back to support at 8,195 in the afternoon before rallying into the close. The index closed at 8,205.11, -0.12% below its June 9th 8,214.99 record close. Volume rose +100.7% to 23.983 million shares, compared to 11.951 million shares the prior session, and 1.78x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed +1.18% and +4.37% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +7.51% and +12.1% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.

Market volatility rose +2.17%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 10.85, compared to 10.62 at the prior close, trading at levels comparable to those of the early 1990s. In early trading, the index moved lower and set a mid-morning 10.34 intraday low, then rose and moved higher by late morning. The index rose to a mid-afternoon 11.02 intraday high, then fell sharply in late trading. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. Notably, the CBOE put/call SKEW rose +3.35% to a record 143.26, compared to 138.61 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, and above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent 143.20 high came last December 20th, which was followed by -5.58% decline in the SPX, January 22 - February 3rd.

The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) rose to 71.00, compared to 69.90 the prior day, moving above a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.73 on June 9th, but better than 58.90 on June 12th, and an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI compares to an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, and compares to earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.

Last week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +2.04%, +1.38%, +2.96%, and +2.43%, respectively. The prior week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down -0.68%, -0.88%, -0.25%, and -0.44%, respectively. In June, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +2.04%, +1.38%, +2.96%, and +2.43%, respectively, compared to May, when the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +2.10%, +0.82%, +3.11%, and +1.22%, respectively.

In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +6.20%, +2.23%, +4.58%, and +5.94%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.

KBW Bank Index (BKX). On greater and above 15-day average volume, the BKX rose +0.62% to 71.58, compared to 71.14 at the prior day's close, its 12th consecutive close above 70, but -1.82% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. The index rose in early trading to a late morning 71.77 intraday high, then slipped back to 71.40 through late afternoon, when the index rallied again to the close. Volume rose +52.4% to 97.539 million shares, compared to 38.638 million shares the prior day, and 1.31x the 42.280 million share 15-day moving average.

Large cap banks outperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) rose +0.34%.

Last week, the BKX is up +1.23%. The prior week, the BKX closed off -0.16%. In June, the BKX is up +3.87%, compared to May, when the BKX closed up +2.77%. In 2014, the BKX is up +3.35%, compared to the SPX's +6.20% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.

The BKX is now +20.9% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +119.8% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +82.6% in the same period.

The BKX index closed -40.9% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +284.4% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.

Technical indicators were little changed. The index closed +1.97% and +3.65% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +3.14% and +5.62% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving average. The 20-day moving average rose +18 bps to 70.20. The 69.06 50-day moving average rose +1 bp. Its 69.40 100-day moving average rose +3 bps, and the 200-day moving average rose +4 bps to 67.77. The 20-day closed (by +1.14 points) above the 50-day, and the gap widened +17 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +1.29 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -3 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +1.63 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -1 bp.

The directional movement indicator widened to +15.228, compared to +12.578 the prior day, its 18th consecutive positive reading. Relative strength rose to 63.48, compared to 60.62 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.14 on June 9th but up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd. The lowest RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 71.82; next support is 71.28.

SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR