This morning. Today, U.S. equity futures are narrowly higher and trade near the top of their pre-market range. In Asia, equities closed higher, with Tokyo and Shanghai closing near their intraday highs. Chinese relative strength indexes indicate an acutely overbought position. In Europe, equities are mixed, but flat. The dollar is weaker. The U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are slightly higher. Commodities are mixed. Tuesday's Nikkei 225 September 2014 (NKU4) equity futures are modestly higher. Since July 8th, the market outlook is "uptrend under pressure", after 5 distributions in the past 16 sessions.
Friday, on lower and below average volume, major U.S. equity indexes closed lower. The S&P 500 Index (SPX), DJ Industrials, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite fell -0.48%, -0.72%, -0.50%, and -0.48%, respectively. Last week, major indexes closed mixed. The prior week, major indexes closed at least +0.38% higher. In July, indexes are at least +0.06% higher. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, and Nasdaq and NYSE composite are up +7.03%, +2.32%, +6.54%, and +5.63% higher, respectively.
NYSE volume fell -9.77% to 0.84x its 20-day moving average.
Other notable indexes closed mixed. The DJ Transports (TRAN) fell -0.45%. The Russell 2000 (RTY) fell -1.00%. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index fell -0.31%, and the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index fell -0.42%. The RTY, QNET, and NBI are down -5.29%, -6.92% and -6.75%, respectively, from their recent record highs.
Trading desks note the continued strong Asia rally, where China appears suddenly overbought, and also that indexes failed to maintain their Thursday levels, with the SPX again well with the recent 1955-1985 trading range. Friday, high profile earnings disappointments (notably AMZN, V, and AON) were the leading explanation of the day's weakness, but within a context of an otherwise strong 2Q2014 earnings season. Desks flows were quiet with little pick up in selling pressure and order activity. Volatility is expected to rise this week ahead of the U.S. July jobs report, another FOMC meeting, and other economic reports and developments. Conviction remains weak and unenthusiastic, with higher anxiety levels as the calendar moves to month-end and important economic reports and events come due. Markets continue to consolidate.
The 2Q2014 earnings season began June 18th, and now 229 of 500 SPX companies have reported with respective +5.91% and +0.89% adjusted EPS and revenues surprises. Financials (44 of 84 reporting) lead with respective +12.0% and +3.35% EPS and revenue surprises. In 1Q2014, 499 of 499 SPX companies reported with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.20% revenue surprises.
Forward estimates have moved up. Respective estimates for 2014, 2015 and 2016 are now $119.52, $132.87, and $147.23, respectively compared to $118.05, $131.36 and $145.70 at June-end, respective increases of +1.25%, +1.15% and +1.05%. Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.3x (compared to 17.3x the prior day) average 2014-15 earnings ($126.20), attention focuses on 2014-15 earnings and valuations (17.3x times survey 2014-15 SPX average operating earnings suggests a 2177.70 SPX level in the next year, a +10.1% rise from yesterday's close).
Technicals were little changed. Most SPX market segments closed lower. SPX market breadth was negative, and up volume lagged down volume. Volatility rose, but remains well below average historical levels. Treasury bond markets strengthened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield fell -3.70 bps to close at 2.4655%, compared to 2.5025% at the prior close.
This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are up +1.62 bps at 2.4817%, compared to the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are mixed. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields again at multi-year lows at 2.50% and +2.69%, respectively, compared to 2.54% and +2.71% the prior day.
U.S. options markets improved to neutral, compared to bearish to neutral the prior day. The CBOE SKEW rose +1.09% to 135.26, compared to 133.80 the prior day, above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The SKEW closed at a record 143.60 on June 20th.
In pre-market futures trading, September SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the top of their narrow 1966-1974 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of +0.64 points, the SPU4 future prices at 1973.75, up +1.81 points. The SPX opens +0.22% and +1.66% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +3.74% and +6.85% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1983.84. Initial support is 1973.61, then 1968.87.
"Uptrend Under Pressure" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. Since July 9th, the market outlook is "uptrend under pressure". Friday, major indexes closed lower though on lower volume, and market breadth was negative. Despite the day's weakness and the mixed week, indexes were hurt by Amazon.com's (NASDAQ:AMZN) -10% plunge, with many strong moves in a broad swath of industries (retail, transportation, internet, Chinese-based stocks, alternative energy, computer, and apparel). Financials' earnings lead other sectors.
Since May 27th, distribution days number 6 for the SPX, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite, and 5 for the DJI.
On May 27th, the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed July 3rd at a record 1985.59, +8.95% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th, the recent low close. On February 3rd, the Nasdaq closed at its 3,996.96 year-to-date low, but then recovered +11.6% to the July 3rd 4,458.65 multi-year record close.
In Asia, equity markets rallied. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) reversed a modestly lower open and closed up +0.46% and ended at its intraday high. The Hang Seng (HSI) Index rose +0.88%, and the Shanghai SE composite (SHCOMP) rose +2.41%, and closed at its intraday high. The NKY and HSI 50-day moving averages are above their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.
Commentary focuses on stronger economic reports, and the direction of monetary policy, currency, and commodity price developments.
Last week, the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP closed up +1.59%, +3.25%, and +3.28%, respectively. The prior week, the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP closed up +0.34%, +0.95%, and +0.59%, respectively. In July, the NKY is up +2.42%, the HSI is up +5.34%, and the SHCOMP is up +6.33%. In June, the NKY gained +3.62%, the HSI gained +0.47%, and the SHCOMP gained +0.58%.
In 2014, the NKY is down -4.68%, the HSI is up +4.82%, and the SHCOMP is up +2.93%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.
In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, as the SHIBO 7-day rate fell -5 bps to 4.05%, compared to 4.10% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.
Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show that Tokyo is in a neutral range, while Hong Kong, and Shanghai are well into overbought ranges. The NKY RSI rose to 62.24, compared to 59.75 the prior session, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI rose to 77.04, compared to 73.88 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI rose to 79.73, compared to 72.33 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.
In Japan, the NKY closed at 15,529.40, compared to 15,457.87 the prior day, -4.68% below its year-end 16,291.31 high and -60.1% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index fell to an early 15,426.98 intraday low, but reversed higher in the first hour and rallied to a late morning 15,556.62 intraday high. The index traded around rose to 15,520 through the afternoon. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were consumer discretionary, telecommunications, and materials, which rose at least +0.50%. Laggards were financials, which rose +0.02%, and energy and utilities, which fell at least -0.58%.
In China, in Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,177.95, compared to 2,126.61 at the prior close, +11.7% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index opened higher and tallied to a late morning 2,181.18 intraday high, then traded narrowly through the close. All market segments closed at least +1.13% higher. Leaders were financials, energy, and materials, which rose at least +2.23%. Laggards were utilities, health care, and telecommunications.
In Europe, equity indexes are mixed, but essentially flat. The Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX are down -0.05% and -0.14%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 are up +0.04% and +0.21%. The Spanish IBEX 35 is down -0.27%. The Italian FTSE MIB is down -0.30%.
Economic reporting is light. The euro is slightly stronger compared to the dollar.
European bourses have recently underperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 45.41, compared to 45.59 at the prior close, in a neutral (30-70) range, better than its recent February 5th 33.57 closing low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The index's lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24, 2013, which marked the year's 2,494.54 closing low.
The Euro Stoxx50 trades -4.30% below its recent June 18th multi-year high and -39.6% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,174.99 close, the index rose to an early 3,189.44 intraday high, then eased back to breakeven, with support at 3,170. The index currently trades at 3,172.54. Most market segments are lower. Leaders are health care, energy, and telecommunications, which are up at least +0.28%. Laggards are financials, utilities, and consumer discretionary, which are down at least -0.22%.
Last week, the Euro Stoxx50 and DAX closed down -0.09% and -0.18%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 closed up +0.04% and +0.17%. The prior week, indexes ended higher, with the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX up +0.23%, +0.89%, +0.44%, and +0.56%, respectively. In July, the FTSE 100 is up +0.75%, while the Euro Stoxx50, CAC 40, and DAX are down -1.74%, -1.92%, and -2.10%, respectively. In June, the Euro Stoxx50 closed up +0.03%, while the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -0.88%, -1.53%, and -0.84%, respectively.
In 2014, the indexes are higher. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +2.03%, +0.67%, +0.98%, and +0.78%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.
2Q2014 SPX Earnings. The 2nd quarter earnings season began June 18th, and now 229 of 499 SPX reporting firms have reported, with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.89% revenue surprises. Financials (44 of 84 reporting) lead with a 12.0% EPS surprise and +3.35% revenue surprise.
In 1Q2014, of 499 (of 499) reporting companies, 370 or 74.5% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.91% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 263 or 53.0% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise was +0.20%. Energy led with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials had respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lagged with respective +0.34% and -0.66% earnings and revenue surprises.
Valuation. The SPX trades at 18.0x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.6x estimated 2014 earnings ($119.52), 14.9x estimated 2015 earnings ($132.87), and 13.4x estimated 2016 earnings ($147.23). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +8.51%, +11.2%, and 10.8%, respectively.
The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.9x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 13.0x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.51), 12.0x estimated 2015 earnings ($5.95), and 10.8x 2016 earnings ($6.64). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +6.82%, +7.98%, and +11.6%, respectively.
Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets improved to neutral, compared to bearish to neutral the prior session. Composite options are neutral, index options are neutral, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.94, compared to 0.91 the prior day, and worse than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.88 and 0.88, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 1.49, compared to 1.58 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 1.24 and 1.10, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.77, compared to 0.72 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.78 and 0.82, respectively.
NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume fell -9.77% to 569.75 million shares, compared to 631.41 million shares the prior day, 0.84x the 677.97 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was negative, though up volume narrowly led down volume. Advancing stocks lagged by -1,009 (compared to -184 the prior day) or 0.50:1. Up volume was 0.49:1 down volume.
Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:
· USD LIBOR is 0.09150%, compared to 0.09130% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.23410%, unchanged from 0.23510% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.
· The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 13.660 bps, compared to 13.560 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 13.200 bps, compared to 12.770 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.
· The 3-month Euro basis swap curve is -8.244 bps, compared to -8.769 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, and at the lower end of a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.
· German 10-year debt yields 1.14%, compared to 1.15% the prior day.
· French 10-year debt yields 1.47%, compared to 1.48% the prior day.
· Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.54%, compared to 0.54% the prior day.
· Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are lower and at new multi-year lows. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.50%, compared to 2.54% the prior day, modestly above the U.S. 10-year yield and compares to its previous 2.540% July 25th low. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.70%, compared to 2.73% the prior day and their June 9th 2.710% recent low. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields peaked at 7.62% and 7.26%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.
· U.S. Treasury yields are higher, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.492% and 2.475%, respectively, compared to 0.488% and 2.466% Friday. The yield curve widened +0.490 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at +1.983%, compared to 1.978% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.996% on July 21, 2014, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.
· The U.S. dollar is weaker compared to the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. The dollar trades at US$81.010, compared to US$80681 intraday low and US$81.029 the prior day, and better compared to its $80.409 50-day, US$80.112 100-day, and US$80.291 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3436, compared to a US$1.3442 intraday high and US$1.3430 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3591 50-day and US$1.3702 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥101.82, compared to ¥101.84 the prior day. The yen trades better than its 50-day moving average ¥101.83, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.
· Citigroup Economic Surprise Index improved to -24.50, compared to -26.00 the prior day. The index is mixed compared to its respective -22.66 5-day and -19.26 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th. The index turned briefly positive in the latter half of May, but has been negative since May 29th. After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.
· Commodities prices are mixed, with mostly lower energy, lower precious metals, lower aluminum and copper, and mixed agriculture prices.
· The CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) rose +7.18% to 12.69, compared to 11.84 at the prior close. The VIX is +6.98% above the 11.86 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 15.38. Its 30-day low is 10.28. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.
· The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 16.91, up +1.06% compared to 16.73 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades +9.68% above its 15.42 20-day moving average, -9.57% below the 18.70 30-day high, and +37.4% above the 12.30 30-day low.
· The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 15.01, up +12.3% compared to 13.37 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades +15.7% above its 12.97 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.
· CBOE SKEW (SKEW) rose +1.09% to 135.26, compared to 133.80 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120) and since June 19th, and well above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.26 on June 20, 2014. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, as occurred last December, ahead of market declines last January. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.
U.S. Economic Reporting and News:
· At 9:45, July preliminary Markit composite PMI, with 61.0 prior. Markit services PMI, with 59.8 survey and 61.0 prior.
· At 10:00, June MoM pending home sales, with +0.5% survey and +6.1% prior.
· At 10:30, July Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, with 12.0 survey and 11.4 prior.
Overseas Economic Reporting and News:
· China - June YoY industrial profits rose +17.9%, compared to +8.9% prior. June leading index was 100.06, compared to 99.93 revised prior.
· Japan - June MoM retail sales +0.8% survey and +4.6% revised prior.
· Italy - July business confidence was 99.7, compared to 99.9 survey and prior. Economic sentiment is 90.9, compared to 88.2 revised prior.
Notable Company Ratings/News:
Friday's Trade. On lower and below average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes closed moderately lower, though indexes were particularly hurt by AMZN's -9.65% lower close. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite fell -0.48%, -0.72%, -0.50%, and -0.48%, respectively. Last week, indexes closed mixed. In July, indexes are at least +0.06% higher. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are at least +2.32% higher. Market breadth was negative, with gainers 0.50x losing stocks. Most SPX market segments closed lower. Leaders were telecommunications and materials, which rose at least +0.22%, and technology, which fell -0.23%. Financials fell -0.56%. Laggards were energy, utilities, and consumer discretionary, which fell at least -0.77%.
Other notable indexes closed lower. The Russell 2000 (RTY) fell -0.72% and closed -5.29% below its March 4th record high. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) fell -0.31% and is down -6.92% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) fell -0.42% and ended -6.75% below its February 25th record high.
NYSE volume fell -9.77% to 569.75 million shares, compared to 631.41 million shares the prior day, 0.84x the 677.97 million share 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets weakened. The U.S. 10-year yield set an early 2.5179% intraday high, then fell from mid-morning through session end with a late 2.4619% intraday low. The index ended at 2.4655%, down -3.70 bps from the 2.5025% prior close.
From its prior day 1987.98 record SPX close, September 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a moderately lower open. The index found initial support at 1980, then weakened to a late morning 1974.37 intraday low, then traded narrowly around 1978 through the afternoon. The index closed at 1978.34, +84.1% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.
From its prior day 8,428.15 close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) fell -0.45%, compared to the DJI's -0.48% loss, closing -0.48% off its July 24th record close. At the open, the index gapped lower, bounced off 8,430 and then reversed higher to a mid-morning 8,488.97 intraday high. The index weakened as broader indexes failed to rally and reversed lower by late morning and trended lower to a late 8,419.73 intraday low. Volume fell -30.9% to 10.931 million shares, compared to 15.817 million shares the prior session, and 0.85x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed +1.42% and +3.25% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +6.96% and +12.0% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.
Market volatility fell -9.77%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 12.69, compared to 11.84 at the prior close. The index trended higher through mid-afternoon, when it set its 12.75 intraday high, then moved narrowly to the close. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW rose to +1.09%, to 135.26, compared to 133.80 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, and well above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. Its record 143.26 high came on June 20th.
The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) rose to 55.68, compared to 60.92 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.73 on June 9th and up from an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI compares to an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, and compares to earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.
Last week, the SPX, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +0.01%, +0.39%, and +0.00%, respectively, while the DJI closed down -0.82%. The prior week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +0.54%, +0.92%, +0.38%, and +0.45%, respectively. In July, indexes are higher. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, NYSE composite are up +0.92%, +0.80%, +0.94%, and +0.06%, respectively. In June, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +1.91%, +0.65%, +3.90%, and +2.07%, respectively.
In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +7.03%, +2.32%, +6.54%, and +5.63%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.
KBW Bank Index (BKX). On lower and below 15-day average volume, the BKX rose +0.17% to 71.60, compared to 71.48 at the prior day's close, -1.80% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. With a mid-morning 71.32 intraday low, the index traded narrowly through mid-afternoon, then rallied to a final hour 71.67 intraday high. Volume fell -4.07% to 33.929 million shares, compared to 35.369 million shares the prior day, and 0.76x the 44.520 million share 15-day moving average.
Large cap banks outperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) fell -0.08%.
Last week, the BKX closed up +1.19%, compared to the prior week, when the BKX closed down -0.30%. In July, the BKX is up +0.41%, compared to June, when the BKX rose +3.48%. In 2014, the BKX is up +3.38%, compared to the SPX's +7.03% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.
The BKX is now +21.0% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +119.9% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +84.1% in the same period.
The BKX index closed -40.9% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +284.5% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.
Technical indicators improved. The index closed +0.47% above its 20-day moving average, and closed +1.74%, +2.00%, and +4.14% above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The 20-day moving average rose +3 bps to 71.27. The 70.37 50-day moving average rose +8 bps. Its 70.20 100-day moving average rose +2 bps, and the 200-day moving average rose +5 bps to 68.75. The 20-day closed (by +0.89 points) above the 50-day, and the gap narrowed -6 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +1.62 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap widened +3 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +1.44 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -4 bps.
The directional movement indicator improved to +4.5412, compared to +3.897 the prior day, its 2nd consecutive positive reading. Relative strength rose to 55.09, compared to 54.22 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.14 on June 9th, but up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd. The lowest recent RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 71.74; next support is 71.39.
SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR