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U.S. Futures Advance On Earnings; China Rallies To Overbought; Europe Reverses Higher

This morning. Today, U.S. equity futures are higher and trade near the top of their pre-market range. In Asia, equities closed higher, with Tokyo closing near its intraday high. Chinese relative strength indexes indicate an acutely overbought position. In Europe, equities are mixed, but flat. The dollar is weaker. The U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are slightly higher. Commodities are mixed. Wednesday's Nikkei 225 September 2014 (NKU4) equity futures are modestly higher. Since July 8th, the market outlook is "uptrend under pressure", after 5 distributions in the past 16 sessions.

Monday, on better, but below average volume, major U.S. equity indexes closed mixed. The S&P 500 Index (SPX), DJ Industrials, and NYSE composite rose +0.3%, +0.13%, and +0.01%, respectively, while the Nasdaq fell -0.10%. Last week, major indexes closed mixed. The prior week, major indexes closed at least +0.38% higher. In July, indexes are at least +0.07% higher. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, and Nasdaq and NYSE composite are up +7.06%, +2.45%, +6.42%, and +5.64% higher, respectively.

NYSE volume rose +3.38% to 0.93x its 20-day moving average.

Other notable indexes closed mixed. The DJ Transports (TRAN) fell -1.13%. The Russell 2000 (RTY) fell -0.46%. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index rose +0.02%, and the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index fell -0.94%. The RTY, QNET, and NBI are down -5.72%, -6.92% and -7.63%, respectively, from their recent record highs.

Trading desks note the continued Asian rally, where China appears overbought, and a moderate European rally. Regarding yesterday's trade, it's described as a wasted day, with indexes ending the day nearly unchanged and within the recent 1950-1985 trading range. Notably, indexes battled back after sharp early losses, suggestive of either resilience or complacency. Volatility is expected to rise this week ahead of the U.S. July jobs report, another FOMC meeting, and other economic reports and developments. Conviction remains weak and unenthusiastic, with higher anxiety levels as the calendar moves to month-end and important economic reports and events come due. Markets continue to consolidate.

The 2Q2014 earnings season began June 18th, and now 239 of 500 SPX companies have reported with respective +5.88% and +0.91% adjusted EPS and revenues surprises. Financials (47 of 84 reporting) lead with respective +11.9% and +3.30% EPS and revenue surprises. In 1Q2014, 499 of 499 SPX companies reported with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.20% revenue surprises.

Forward estimates have moved up. Respective estimates for 2014, 2015 and 2016 are now $119.37, $132.83, and $147.25, respectively compared to $118.05, $131.36 and $145.70 at June-end, respective increases of +1.12%, +1.12% and +1.06%. Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.3x (compared to 17.3x the prior day) average 2014-15 earnings ($126.10), attention focuses on 2014-15 earnings and valuations (17.3x times survey 2014-15 SPX average operating earnings suggests a 2177.97 SPX level in the next year, a +10.1% rise from yesterday's close).

Technicals were little changed as both the DJI and NYSE composite again closed fractionally below their respective 20-day moving averages. Most SPX market segments closed higher. SPX market breadth was negative, and up volume lagged down volume. Volatility fell and remains well below average historical levels. Treasury bond markets weakened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield rose +1.98 bps to close at 2.4853%, compared to 2.4655% at the prior close.

This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are down -1.26 bps at 2.4727%, compared to the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are mixed. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields again at multi-year lows at 2.47% and +2.64%, respectively, compared to 2.49% and +2.67% the prior day. Notably, the Spanish sovereign 10-year yield is below the U.S. 10-year bond yield.

U.S. options markets are unchanged at neutral, compared to neutral the prior day. The CBOE SKEW fell -0.18% to 135.02, compared to 135.26 the prior day, above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The SKEW closed at a record 143.60 on June 20th.

In pre-market futures trading, September SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the top of their narrow 1966-1974 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -0.34 points, the SPU4 future prices at 1974.75, up +2.09 points. The SPX opens +0.20% and +1.58% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +3.72% and +6.78% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1984.52. Initial support is 1970.31, then 1961.70.

"Uptrend Under Pressure" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. Since July 9th, the market outlook is "uptrend under pressure". Monday, after early sharp declines, major indexes closed fractionally mixed on better volume, though market breadth was negative. 2Q2014 earnings continue to surprise positive, with financials' earnings leading other sectors.

Since May 27th, distribution days number 6 for the SPX, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite, and 5 for the DJI.

On May 27th, the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed July 24th at a record 1987.01, +8.99% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th, the recent low close. On February 3rd, the Nasdaq closed at its 3,996.96 year-to-date low, but then recovered +11.6% to the July 3rd 4,458.65 multi-year record close.

In Asia, the equity markets rally continued. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) trended higher through the session and closed up +0.57% near its late session intraday high. The Hang Seng (HSI) Index rose +0.87%, and the Shanghai SE composite (SHCOMP) rose +0.24%. The NKY and HSI 50-day moving averages are above their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.

Commentary focuses on stronger economic reports, 2Q2014 earnings, and the direction of monetary policy, currency, and commodity price developments.

This week, the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP are up 1.04%, +1.75%, and +2.66%, respectively. Last week, the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP closed up +1.59%, +3.25%, and +3.28%, respectively. In July, the NKY is up +3.01%, the HSI is up +6.25%, and the SHCOMP is up +6.58%. In June, the NKY gained +3.62%, the HSI gained +0.47%, and the SHCOMP gained +0.58%.

In 2014, the NKY is down -4.13%, the HSI is up +5.72%, and the SHCOMP is up +3.18%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.

In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, as the SHIBO 7-day rate fell -10 bps to 3.95%, compared to 4.05% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.

Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show that Tokyo is in the upper end of a neutral range, while Hong Kong, and Shanghai are well into overbought ranges. The NKY RSI rose to 65.12, compared to 62.24 the prior session, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI rose to 79.68, compared to 77.04 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI rose to 80.31, a record high, compared to 79.73 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.

In Japan, the NKY closed at 115,618.07, compared to 15,529.40 the prior day, -4.13% below its year-end 16,291.31 high and -59.9% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index rallied to mid-morning resistance at 15,630, then fell back to 15,580 by mid-session. The index improved through the afternoon session to a late 15,632.70 intraday high. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were consumer discretionary, materials, and health care, which rose at least +0.78%. Financials rose +0.40%. Laggards were technology and utilities, which rose at least +0.05%, and energy, which fell -0.205.

In China, in Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,183.19, compared to 2,177.95 at the prior close, +12.0% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index traded narrowly through the morning session, then rallied to a mid-afternoon 2,193.36, then fell sharply, briefly trading lower before improving again through the final hour. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were technology, consumer discretionary, and health care, which rose at least +0.63%. Financials rose +0.37%. Laggards were utilities, consumer staples, and energy, which fell at least -0.095.

In Europe, equity indexes have rallied from brief mid-morning losses and now are moderately higher, with better strength in Milan. The Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +0.83%, +0.54%, +0.82%, and +0.69%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is up +0.60%. The Italian FTSE MIB is up +1.22%.

Economic reporting is light. The euro is slightly weaker compared to the dollar.

European bourses have recently underperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 45.41, compared to 45.14 at the prior close, in a neutral (30-70) range, better than its recent February 5th 33.57 closing low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The index's lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24, 2013, which marked the year's 2,494.54 closing low.

The Euro Stoxx50 trades -3.52% below its recent June 18th multi-year high and -39.1% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,171.55 close, the index eased to an early 3,163.69 intraday low, then reversed higher and rallied to a mid-afternoon 3,203.48 intraday high. The index currently trades at 3,198.57. Most market segments are higher. Leaders are materials, financials, and utilities, which are up at least +1.09%. Laggards are industrials and consumer discretionary, which are up at least +0.41%, and technology, which is down -0.13%.

This week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, and CAC 40 are up +0.73%, +0.49%, and +1.16%, respectively, while the DAX is down -0.56%. Last week, the Euro Stoxx50 and DAX closed down -0.09% and -0.18%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 closed up +0.04% and +0.17%. In July, the FTSE 100 is up +1.205%, while the Euro Stoxx50, CAC 40, and DAX are down -0.93%, -0.95%, and -1.70%, respectively. In June, the Euro Stoxx50 closed up +0.03%, while the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -0.88%, -1.53%, and -0.84%, respectively.

In 2014, the indexes are higher. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +2.87%, +1.12%, +1.97%, and +1.19%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.

2Q2014 SPX Earnings. The 2nd quarter earnings season began June 18th, and now 239 of 499 SPX reporting firms have reported, with respective +5.88% EPS and +0.91% revenue surprises. Financials (47 of 84 reporting) lead with a 11.9% EPS surprise and +3.30% revenue surprise.

In 1Q2014, of 499 (of 499) reporting companies, 370 or 74.5% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.91% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 263 or 53.0% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise was +0.20%. Energy led with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials had respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lagged with respective +0.34% and -0.66% earnings and revenue surprises.

Valuation. The SPX trades at 18.0x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.6x estimated 2014 earnings ($119.37), 14.9x estimated 2015 earnings ($132.83), and 13.4x estimated 2016 earnings ($147.25). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +8.37%, +11.3%, and 10.9%, respectively.

The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.9x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 13.0x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.48), 12.0x estimated 2015 earnings ($5.95), and 10.9x 2016 earnings ($6.63). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +6.23%, +8.53%, and +11.5%, respectively.

Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets are unchanged at neutral, compared to neutral the prior session. Composite options are neutral, index options are neutral, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.93, compared to 0.94 the prior day, and worse than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.89 and 0.89, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 1.12, compared to 1.49 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 1.26 and 1.11, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.87, compared to 0.77 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.79 and 0.82, respectively.

NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume rose +3.38% to 588.98 million shares, compared to 569.75 million shares the prior day, 0.93x the 632.90 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was negative, though up volume lagged down volume. Advancing stocks lagged by -394 (compared to -1,009 the prior day) or 0.77:1. Up volume was 0.72:1 down volume.

Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:

· USD LIBOR is 0.09150%, compared to 0.09130% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.23410%, unchanged from 0.23510% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.

· The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 13.860 bps, compared to 13.660 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 14.000 bps, compared to 13.700 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.

· The 3-month Euro basis swap curve is -8.522 bps, compared to -8.500 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, and at the lower end of a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.

· German 10-year debt yields 1.126%, compared to 1.148% the prior day.

· French 10-year debt yields 1.457%, compared to 1.471% the prior day.

· Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.524%, compared to 0.535% the prior day.

· Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are lower and at new multi-year lows. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.467%, compared to 2.494% the prior day, notably below the U.S. 10-year yield. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.6395%, compared to 2.674% the prior day. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields peaked at 7.62% and 7.26%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.

· U.S. Treasury yields are mixed, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.543% and 2.475%, respectively, compared to 0.500% and 2.485% Monday. The yield curve narrowed -5.410 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at +1.931%, compared to 1.985% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.931% on July 29, 2014, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.

· The U.S. dollar is stronger compared to the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. The dollar trades at US$81.068, compared to US$81.084 intraday high and US$81.025 the prior day, and better compared to its $80.430 50-day, US$80.126 100-day, and US$80.300 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3431, compared to a US$1.3428 intraday low and US$1.3440 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3586 50-day and US$1.3698 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥102.03, compared to ¥101.86 the prior day. The yen trades better than its 50-day moving average ¥101.85, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.

· Citigroup Economic Surprise Index improved to -20.70, compared to -24.50 the prior day. The index is mixed compared to its respective -23.58 5-day and -19.74 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th. The index turned briefly positive in the latter half of May, but has been negative since May 29th. After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.

· Commodities prices are mixed, with mixed energy, higher precious metals, mixed aluminum and copper, and lower agriculture prices.

Volatility, Skew:

· The CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) fell -1.02% to 12.56, compared to 12.69 at the prior close. The VIX is +5.31% above the 11.93 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 15.38. Its 30-day low is 10.28. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.

· The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 16.59, down -2.82% compared to 17.07 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades +6.98% above its 15.51 20-day moving average, -11.3% below the 18.70 30-day high, and +34.8% above the 12.30 30-day low.

· The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 15.94, up +6.20% compared to 15.01 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades +21.7% above its 13.10 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.

· CBOE SKEW (SKEW) fell -0.18% to 135.02, compared to 135.26 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120) and since June 19th, well above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.26 on June 20, 2014. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, as occurred last December, ahead of market declines last January. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.

U.S. Economic Reporting and News:

· At 9:00, May MoM S&P/CaseShiller 20 city composite, with +0.30% survey and +0.19% prior, with YoY of +9.90% survey and +10.8% prior.

· At 10:00, July consumer confidence, with 85.4 survey and 85.2 prior.

Overseas Economic Reporting and News:

· Germany - June MoM import prices rose +0.2%, compared to +0.3% survey and +0.0% prior.

Notable Company Ratings/News:

· None.

Monday's Trade. On greater, but below average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes closed modestly mixed. The SPX, DJI, and NYSE composite rose +0.03%, +0.13%, and +0.01%, respectively, while the Nasdaq closed off -0.10%. Last week, indexes closed mixed. In July, indexes are at least +0.07% higher. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are at least +2.45% higher. Market breadth was negative, with gainers 0.77x losing stocks. Most SPX market segments closed higher. Leaders were utilities, telecommunications, and materials, which rose at least +0.25%. Financials rose +0.05%. Laggards were energy, industrials, and consumer staples, which fell at least -0.11%.

Other notable indexes closed mixed. The Russell 2000 (RTY) fell -0.46% and closed -5.72% below its March 4th record high. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) rose +0.02% and is down -6.90% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) fell -0.94% and ended -7.63% below its February 25th record high.

NYSE volume rose +3.38% to 588.98 million shares, compared to 569.75 million shares the prior day, 0.93x the 632.90 million share 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets weakened. The U.S. 10-year yield set an early 2.5179% intraday high, then fell from mid-morning through session end with a late 2.4619% intraday low. The index ended at 2.4853%, up +1.98 bps from the 2.4655% prior close.

From its prior day 1978.91 SPX close, September 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a modestly higher open. The index opened weakly, and fell sharply to a mid-morning 1967.31 intraday low. After finding support at 1968, the index rallied to 1976 by late morning, then rallied from 1974 in early afternoon and reversed higher to a mid-afternoon 1981.52 intraday high. The index eased to the close. The index closed at 1978.91, +84.1% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.

From its prior day 8,428.15 close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) fell -1.13%, compared to the DJI's +0.13% gain, closing -1.60% off its July 24th record close. The index set an early 8,432.87 intraday high, but immediately reversed lower and fell to an early afternoon 8,312.90 intraday low. The index attempted to rally in mid-afternoon, but found resistance at 8,345, then fell back to support at 8,320, then improved mildly into the close. Volume rose +7.81% to 11.785 million shares, compared to 10.931 million shares the prior session, and 0.93x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed +0.18% and +1.95% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +5.64% and +10.6% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.

Market volatility fell -1.02%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 12.56, compared to 12.69 at the prior close. The index rose to a mid-morning 13.64 intraday high, then fell back to 13.00 by mid-session. The index reversed lower by mid-afternoon, then moved narrowly around 12.60 through the close. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW rose to +1.09%, to 135.26, compared to 133.80 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, and well above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. Its record 143.26 high came on June 20th.

The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) rose to 55.92, compared to 55.68 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.73 on June 9th and up from an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI compares to an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, and compares to earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.

Last week, the SPX, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +0.01%, +0.39%, and +0.00%, respectively, while the DJI closed down -0.82%. The prior week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +0.54%, +0.92%, +0.38%, and +0.45%, respectively. In July, indexes are higher. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, NYSE composite are up +0.95%, +0.93%, +0.83%, and +0.07%, respectively. In June, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +1.91%, +0.65%, +3.90%, and +2.07%, respectively.

In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +7.06%, +2.45%, +6.442%, and +5.64%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.

KBW Bank Index (BKX). On greater, but below 15-day average volume, the BKX fell -0.70% to 71.10, compared to 71.60 at the prior day's close, -2.48% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. The index fell sharply to a mid-morning 70.88 intraday low, then improved modestly to resistance at 71.20 by mid-afternoon. Volume rose +19.9% to 40.694 million shares, compared to 33.929 million shares the prior day, and 0.91x the 44.794 million share 15-day moving average.

Large cap banks outperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) fell -1.19%.

Last week, the BKX closed up +1.19%, compared to the prior week, when the BKX closed down -0.30%. In July, the BKX is down -0.29%, compared to June, when the BKX rose +3.48%. In 2014, the BKX is up +2.26%, compared to the SPX's +7.06% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.

The BKX is now +20.2% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +118.4% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +84.1% in the same period.

The BKX index closed -41.3% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +281.8% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.

Technical indicators worsened as the BKX surrendered its 20-day moving average. The index closed -0.22% below its 20-day moving average, and closed +0.91%, +1.27%, and +3.34% above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The 20-day moving average fell - bp to 71.26. The 70.46 50-day moving average rose +9 bps. Its 70.21 100-day moving average rose +1 bp, and the 200-day moving average rose +5 bps to 68.80. The 20-day closed (by +0.80 points) above the 50-day, and the gap narrowed -9 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +1.65 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap widened +2 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +1.44 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -3 bps.

The directional movement indicator worsened to -0.538, compared to +4.5412 the prior day, its 1st negative reading since July 23rd. Relative strength fell to 50.76, compared to 55.09 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.14 on June 9th, but up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd. The lowest recent RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 71.51; next support is 71.79.

SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR