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Fed Rate Hike Weekly Watch


Rate Hike Prob% Implied by Fed Funds Futures.

Fed Funds Futures as of Friday 01/12/2018 predict two rate hikes in 2018 and one more by June 2019, despite all the hawkish talk by Fed officials.

So there's quite a bit of room for "surprises".

Below graph shows fed funds rates in black, and FF futures implied rates as of 01/12/2018, 1 day ago, 1 week ago, 1 month ago and 3 months ago. 

3 months ago, FF futures were predicting 1-2 hikes till end of 2020.

Below spreadsheet shows one hike baked in March, one in September, and one more probably in June 2019.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.