Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 8/1/2013

|Includes: Axion Power International, Inc. (AXPW)

Everything below related to short sales, volume and price could become passe as a new batch of shares should be issued to the financiers quite soon (8/6?) and we don't know how they will behave.

To help keep the instablog shorter, I truncate some of the historical metrics, but keep enough here to hopefully keep the context clear and helpful.

FocalPoint Analytics has posted an important explanation of the financing arrangements under which Axion is laboring. If you have not read it YOU SHOULD IMMEDIATELY DO SO!

John Petersen has posted an article, Understanding The Mechanics And Incentives In Axion Power's PIPE which is a must-read and also a Seeking Alpha editor's pick.

Tom Konrad authored some articles in Forbes magazine that should be read. These are linked in the concentrators, so I won't duplicate them here.

Regardless of anything else, the following from the prior concentrator seems to me to be important. If you've not read this stuff, as well s the above links, I believe you should do so.

Axion share price is currently suffering under, apparently, the effects of a rather onerous, IMO, financing arrangement which may end up being highly dilutive. See the details of financing filing,
"29. CERTAIN DEFINITIONS", item (k) "Company Conversion Price" on page 36, (ii) "Pre-Installment Conversion Price" detailed on page 43, and (xx) "VWAP" on page 45, all in the provided link, so that you can check my math. The VWAP determination may not match my calculations, although I would be surprised if it didn't.

Also keep in mind when you read the sections that these calculations can be overridden to a lower price, 85% of the VWAP on the last trading day before the share issuance.

The problem with the financing, IMO, is that the financiers cannot lose. In fact, over the long term if Axion is successful the financiers profit the greatest the more shares they own at a lower price, just as we would. They get a guaranteed lower price than we can get though. This provides an incentive for them to drive price as low as possible because the details of the financing deal give them shares at ever-decreasing prices very likely at or below the then-current share price, which can be immediately sold (if they've not shorted already) into the market, driving the price even lower. Folks more knowledgeable than I have commented in the APCs on theses PIPE (Private Investment Public Equity) financing deals and the vultures they attract.

Possibly supporting my take on this is that just before the notice of effectiveness for the financing deal, on 6/4/2013 IIRC, we had a big jump in the semimonthly short reports for 5/15/2013, 5/31/2013 and now 6/14/2013. The first one, 5/15, didn't cause me much concern because it could be just normal MM daily shorts, as explained here. The 6/14 volume, 1,187,574, also didn't cause me much concern, but only because of the daily shorts reported during that time-frame, mentioned in this comment. Some discussion of my thoughts about all this are in a comment on my instablog.

Some folks, based on the prohibitions mentioned here against a net short position, may think that shorting buy the financiers is not allowed. Please note the distinction between "short position" and "net short position". My take is that hedging their long positions by going short would not violate the prohibition. Since there will be a bias towards downward price pressure anyway until "big news" emerges, I think that shorting for both hedging and driving price down will occur to allow accumulation of a greater number of shares by the financiers.

With all this in mind, I added a line to my daily EOD postings in the APC that shows my estimated next issue price if it went off that day. I also show a bit of its history so that the progression (regression?) trend can be seen.

The last thing I want to mention related to this is the fails to deliver. As mentioned in the previous blog, I had been expecting this to show increased activity and it did. In light of the increased semimonthly short report volumes, I expected this to become a trend and that seems to have occurred.. There's a link below to that instablog, which is updated about every two weeks as new data becomes available. Unfortunately, the data is available too late to be of much use other than for confirming or debunking my suspicions.

With the publication of the Forbes article, there seems to have been change in daily short sales. My feeling is that we can't see any real sustained price appreciation without "normal" market-making activity and the volume (liquidity) that should accompany it. When we have those, we have the possibility of sustained trends, both up and down, giving us the "waves" necessary for traders and investors to have confidence in the risk/reward profiles, permitting them to enter the market with the hope of doing well.

For some time we did not have "normal" market-making, as detailed when John Petersen posted back in January about a big drop in the daily short sales starting back in November of '12. Interestingly, this was about the same time we all thought the "big uglies" were exhausted and I also posted that I thought we might be starting a move up, which we did. Go figure!

Daily short sales trended back to normal for some time and then again dropped to abnormally low levels prior to the Forbes articles. Subsequent to the Forbes articles they are now trending up into the normal areas and should remain there as long as we have good volume and no extended depreciation in price. This seems to be an effect of having more market-makers active as when we have ATDF, NITE, CDEL as the only active MMs we seem to have extended periods of very low daily short sales.

I mention the following as a possible counter-point to my thoughts that without "normal" market-maker activity we can't get much price appreciation. OTOH, what we got may certainly not qualify as "appreciable", being we only got to $0.3710 VWAP (1/14/13) from $0.2352 VWAP on 11/2. A nice percentage rise, certainly, but not a "big" move in absolute terms.

In my 11/27 post in AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012 I said "Looking at my experimental inflection point calculations gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. The trend suggested beginning around the 12th is apparently coming to fruition and gaining strength. Let's hope it's not just another few-days' "blip" up followed by a retreat. I think not because the move has been long and strong enough to move all, including the newly added 200-day calculation, into an upward attitude". In the 11/13 entry in AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting I said "If my original inflection point calculations, and my interpretation of them, are valid we have a move up beginning. All the "correct" conditions exist: ...".

These examples may demonstrate that "normal" market-maker participation is not needed. Regardless, another change has appeared ...

Beginning 4/22/2013, with the appearance in our market of some active market-makers we'd not seen for quite a long time, the daily short sales began making a trend up towards the previously-seen levels, as I suggested would eventually happen. At the time of writing the prior blog (6/22/13), the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day average daily short percentages were 34.31%, 25.43%, 16.66% and 12.97%, respectively, and all were rising. We then had an extended period of trending towards very low daily short sales until the Forbes articles appeared. As of 8/1 that put those respective averages at 26.69%, 22.80%, 25.32% and 19.09% and again rising.

Now this was not for ego-gratification, but rather because I'm always more comfortable when things behave as expected because it suggests that I have, indeed, managed to learn something during this long trek from complete ignorance. It will, combined with other things, give me the confidence to stick my neck out more frequently and, as well, get decapitated more frequently! :-((

Regardless of the validity of daily short sales supporting John's thesis that the "big uglies" are out, his thesis is, IMO, valid and supported by AXPW Fails-to-deliver Charts 2/11/2013, with data through the current latest reporting period. The updated data is made available about every two weeks and I update my instablog's charts shortly after each update becomes available.

---- SNIPPETS FROM MY 8/2/2013 EOD COMMENTARY & ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ----
I watched Mel Gibson's "Conspiracy Theory" this weekend.

Today's daily short sales seem to reflect dominance by ATDF, CDEL and NITE mostly. I think this is the case because in the past when we had very low daily short sales these were the most aggressive market-makers on the bids and asks. ARCA was not on the field today. Those "usual suspects", being some of the largest and best-capitalized market-makers (and trading firms?), I wouldn't be surprised if the "financiers" use them when they want to participate directly in the market. So I suspect that along with any retail traders that might have sold today, the "financiers" may have been selling shares that are held at one or more of these institutions.

Thinking of short sales, the rise in the semi-monthly short interest reports came to mind. Early on I was suspicious of only one of the semi-monthly short interest reports because two of the first three showing increases could be just an effect of high daily market-maker normal short sales in the three or four days prior to the reporting date. I'm now of the opinion that was not the case and we have seen aggressive shorting by the PIPErs, as John Petersen has suggested. We've speculated about whether they were hedging or using the shorts to hammer the price lower. We'll never know, but I suspect it was not hedging after watching price deterioration over an extended period.

Looking at today's buy:sell you can see that hitting the bid was the game of the day, regardless of presented asks. The bid was hit on 87.39% of the volume and 85.7% of trades while the short sales numbers were extremely low. There were no really large trades to cause any of this. In normal times this should result in a higher volume and percentage of short sales.

As indicated by the combination of high "sells" (volume and percentage) and low short sales (volume and percentage), someone with a long position was dumping. It's most likely folks selling through their broker-owned market-maker(s) because if the shares were not under market-maker control they would have to be flagged short sales, by rule, unless the trades were inter or intra-broker trades. The sizes of the trades, and their average, suggests these two latter types of trades weren't the case.

In spite of that, VWAP held up quite well, dropping only marginally from yesterday's $0.1747. That's another aberration! If somebody at MAXM hadn't been on the bid side and holding steady all day, the VWAP would probably have been much lower today. That bid forced the "usual suspects" to bid above, supporting share price regardless of the heavy selling pressure, if they wanted shares.

All this leaves me with a couple important questions: who's selling, and why, and who's buying, and why.

I think that a small number of "real" retail buyers and sellers were in today's mix either taking advantage or being used to advantage, thanks to the low volume (46.5% of yesterday's). The low volume enables easy price manipulation, to the advantage of some larger players, and I think it was manipulated, as strongly suggested by the debut of MAXM for the first time in a competitive price range on the bid side, with absolutely no movement from their initial position, combined with the observed buy:sell and daily short sales.

As to who's selling, if the financiers got a ton of shares recently, or know they will shortly get them, at a price of ~$0.1295, and the current market-price is ~$0.17xx, they could just sell shares in the market. If they have their shares held at someone like NOTE, ATDF, CDEL, ... then these shares wouldn't need to be marked short if the shares were already at the firm. They could even sell directly to the brokerage for, say, $0.15xx or $0.16xx and make an immediate decent return (~30%?) with zero risk. The brokers, and their market-maker desks, knowing their craft as well as they do and having the ability to move the market, would see a low-risk proposition with immediate returns greater than normally available from just pure market-making activities.

These scenarios could account for the extremely low daily shorts even when a heavy hitting the bid occurs.

As to who's buying, the lack of bid movement by MAXM tells me they weren't really interested in acquiring shares because they certainly must know at least as much as I know about how our little stock's market behaves and, therefore, at least knew that NITE, CDEL and ATDF would contest for shares above the MAXM bid. Note my use of "at least" - there's other less-savory possibilities that seem "at least" as likely to me, with my TFH firmly in place.

Hm, "MAXM"? Now where have we heard that name? Oh yeah! The investment bank that helped Axion get into this financing deal and whose market-making desk first appeared on our shores around the time the deal was sealed. Suspicious correlation of that and today's first-time ever bid appearing in a competitive range? Cause and effect?

The MAXM who has the financiers as their customers? The MAXM who helped to craft the "ratcheting" anti-dilutive structure of the financing deal? Etc., etc., etc.

Who might be buying through MAXM (trick question), as evidenced by the bid? Couldst be the folks who began shorting our stock after the PIPE announcement on 5/8 and before the financing deal effectiveness date of 6/4/2013, as suggested by the spike in the semi-monthly short interest report around those times? Hm? Maybe the folks that (continued or started?) to short, e.g. 5/15-6/14 when the average VWAP for that period was $0.2473?

Are they now, or did they begin, covering at $0.13xx-$0.17xx for a nice minimum 41.3% (if covering at $0.17xx) approximate profit? Of course, they might have been shorting all the way down to the VWAP of $0.138 on 7/15 (to begin to establish a 20-day period whose 85% price = $0.1295 currently?) if the short interest is any indication. The answer is ...

NOBODY IS BUYING THROUGH MAXM! The MAXM bid was our "stalking horse du jour"! It never moved, it never competed for shares. The buying was done through folks like NITE, ATDF, CDEL as they stayed slightly above the ONLY MAXM BID IN RANGE SINCE THEY FIRST APPEARED ON THE SCENE and they let the trades hit the bids, as exemplified by "... today's 87.39% of trade volume and 85.7% of the trades hitting the bids".

If they are doing "covering buys" now and they have not been aggressively shorting since we hit 7/15's $0.138 VWAP (and to stop shorting would make sense at that level), I would look for a drop, or at least no major increase, in short interest when short interest report for end of July appears on 8/9. This possibility is suggested by subsequent (check my charts!):
- return of the more higher daily short sales percentages;
- decent percentage price rise;
- switch from "sells dominant" to more "normal" buying and selling percentages prior to today.

This may support John's thoughts about not keeping the price depressed any longer than needed to get a very large bunch of shares at a very low price and then allowing the price to rise. If they are making "covering buys" they are doing it through their accounts at other than MAXM (I'm confident that they have accounts at several major trading houses and/or brokerages).

Let's add another possibility. We know a bunch of shares are about to be, or have already been, issued at a $0.1295 price (the 85% price). Someone via MAXM comes with the "stalking horse du jour" bid and folks who are interested in buying pay a VWAP of $0.1733 - a nice 33.8% profit over $0.1295 in a couple of days at most. This also fits with John's thoughts about supporting a higher price, but unfortunately is necessary for only a few days for the "financiers" to benefit. If this short-term profit strategy is their ploy, they again have reason to tank the price before the next round of share issuance.

Another scenario I can imagine working well with what we've seen is that the "financiers" feel there's a strong near-term upside risk and want to accumulate even more shares than they can garner with the blood-sucking financing deal they got. They could use one of more of their accounts to hammer the bid, which happens to include bids placed through some of their other accounts, which would encourage hapless "victims" to disgorge their shares before they thought price would tank further. So for near-zero-cost trades and no net account value changes, they could pick up more shares to sell into the next engineered rise in share price or, better, price rise due to big news.

Yes, I know, I know, but this sort of activity is very hard to detect and the SEC has not gained any fame for catching even simple questionable situations even when warned years in advance, such as with Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme.

I can't say any of this is what is happening, but several are plausible scenarios that could account for today's 87.39% of trade volume and 85.7% of the trades hitting the bids while the short sales numbers were extremely low. There were no really large trades to cause this either.
---- END SNIPPETS FROM MY 8/2/2013 EOD COMMENTARY & ADDITIONAL ... END ----

What follows is my normal boilerplate and the long-time readers can skip on down to the charts.

I've been manually collecting this data for about 18 months now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too arduous unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

I've captured enough data now that I can reasonably expect to be able to detect patterns on the charts that may signal, somewhat reliably, when price moves are about to occur. To help more easily identify any useful patterns, I've made an instablog, Axion Power International (AXPW) 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots. I've also added some lines to them that may assist in this. For anybody with an interest, I welcome any suggestions and/or help.

I'll update this instablog daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The charts will stay near the top and the text updates detailing daily data and expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the charts.

I've arranged the chart segments in this instablog to put what I think are related stuff close together.

This is the twelfth installment of the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 7/1/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 6/1/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 5/1/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 3/1/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 201300830

The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day has been eliminated.

The two inflection points are calculated differently from each other and differently from the original above. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.

Comments and further suggestions welcome.

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart Test IP Calculations 20130830

Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point calculations values are now only in the latest daily comment - attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.

08/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 88, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 669393, AvTrSz: 7607
Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1394, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1343,
# Buys, Shares: 34 213700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1359,
# Sells, Shares: 52 443693, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1336,
# Unkn, Shares: 2 12000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1338,
Buy:Sell 1:2.08 (31.9%), DlyShts 55450 (8.28%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.50%

Yesterday I noted a near-term trend of astute buyers acting early in the day and astute sellers waiting until late-day to Sell. I should've kept my yap shut because today they reverted to form. In fact, it was worse form as "late-day weakness" started early in the day. My question of "How long this complete reversal of what had been "normal" behavior ... will last is uncertain ...". I had surmised until the next share issue. Valleywood mentioned in a comment that we might see weakness today because of the long weekend. I replied I thought the desire to keep strength showing until the new shares were in the hands of the financiers would prevent that. He was right and I was wrong, at least for today.

Today, again, wasn't a horrible day, relatively speaking. Our buy percentage didn't drop all that much and neither did the VWAP. The last six VWAPS, including today: $0.1337, $0.1337, $0.1316, $0.1305, $0.1324, $0.1348 and $0.1343. So maybe today was just a normal "blip" in a (weak?) trend up. Unfortunately, the volume suggests not.

I don't know if today ended the "Today looked like the start of the "hold price up a few days so we have someone to sell to" period ..." action. Jostling on the asks was from the start of the day, including 09:39-09:52 where I caught 6 consecutive steps down (and one no change - just someone adding to best ask quantity) from $0.1388 to $0.1373 (my, how they fight for a couple 100ths of those pennies). Most were ATDF and BTIG, with a little ARCA for some added spice. Out of 23 peeks at changes in the ask, only three were ask price increases (and most likely just hidden higher asks getting "uncovered"), one was flat and the rest were decreases on the ask. The increased asks did not last long either. Most were superseded in 10-20 minutes by a lower ask.

After the initial battle, the rest of the day had ARCA, CDEL, NITE and ETRF market-makers joined in battle. ATDF retired to the hill top with a cool one to watch the action I guess.

For the second consecutive day, stepping around the asks to hit the bids increased a bit. This resulted in the weaker buy percentage of 31.9% vs. yesterday's 35.6% and Wednesday's 43.4%. I was hoping to remain in the 35%+ range. We're still above 30%, so there's hope this was just folks in a rush to get out before the long weekend as they fear a price drop next week when the new shares appear in the market. I sure hope they aren't smarter than the rest of us!

Daily short sales percentage continues it's vacillation in what I believe is a near-term somewhat sideways move that eventually morphs into a spike up. Here's a few days' percentages: 24.05% , 06.17% , 08.15%, 15.13% and 08.28%. The spike up will be associated with a change in price trend, either the same day or the following I think.

10-day average trade size continued to settle from its recent climb, now down to 6,196. This very small price bump may have been the change in trend this metric seems to signal, but I can't bet on it. In a fit of myopia, I had forgotten about the coming long weekend. Things like that cast doubt onto all the technical indicators. I guess the coming short week might tell the tale, with new shares being issued.

My inflection point stuff is no longer showing nice numbers. But the volatility still keeps me wary for now.

Week ending values for the 85% price tracking have been omitted here to keep things briefer in the concentrator.

This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
08/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1415, x 85%: $0.1203
08/27: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1404, x 85%: $0.1193
08/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1394, x 85%: $0.1185
08/29: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1386, x 85%: $0.1178
08/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1378, x 85%: $0.1171

Vol, in K, for above days: 530.76, 443.37, 134.97, 506.36, 669.39.

Regarding the inflection point calculations, my "jaundiced eye" caveat still applies.

As I said yesterday, regarding the formation of "The Pattern" on the charts in normal times that would signal a price move. "In our current environment I don't expect them to develop. I expect we'll see a short-term price bump, at best, before the next ton of shares get put into the hands of the "financiers". If the posited support of price by the "financiers" appears, I could be wrong about all that".

That's still my thinking. Today was sufficient to cause the original version to begin a rotation from up to down on four of the six periods. So far the change is weak. The rate of change over five days is weaker in all six periods. I didn't expect a break in the pattern formation beginning to appear so soon though. <*sigh*>

The newer inflection point calculations, which are a bit less "flaky", had indicated this small price bump up was coming several days back. Today it is as negative as the original version with 4 weaker readings in the one-day changes and the changes over five days. But the rate of change over five days only has one weaker reading yet. I think this suggests that the momentum up has slowed, but we can't say we have a trend reversal underway yet.

That may be an optimistic assessment though.

There is a difference in what the original and newer versions suggest. The original version often "reacts" too(?) quickly, but may be short-term correct. The newer version may not react quite as quickly but I think has a better track record in giving fewer "false" signals. We'll have to wait and see which is correct here.

Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.

Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% share pricing:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1410
08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 VWAP $0.1348
08/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1423, x 85%: $0.1210 VWAP $0.1337

Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920, 6,522.

On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
---- 1-day change ----
08/21 -06.6% -10.7% -16.4% -04.0% -02.3% -03.8%
08/22 -16.7% -20.3% -13.3% -06.6% -05.7% -05.4%
08/23 +22.2% +03.3% +01.6% -01.9% -01.1% +00.7%
08/26 -03.4% -03.3% -03.3% -01.4% +00.9% -00.7%
08/27 -03.6% -04.5% -06.6% -02.3% -01.0% -01.6%
08/28 +26.6% +10.3% -02.4% +00.5% +00.6% +01.2%
08/29 +44.9% +09.0% -04.7% +00.4% -00.8% +00.5%
08/30 -14.1% +13.0% -03.1% +01.7% -01.5% -03.0%
---- 5-day change ----
08/21 +004.8% +018.8% -026.6% +007.6% +016.2% -005.6%
08/22 -005.0% -035.5% -037.7% -017.7% -027.1% -014.2%
08/23 +090.8% +061.2% +019.9% +053.1% +030.0% +028.9%
08/26 -004.4% -045.0% -003.0% -042.9% +005.9% +008.6%
08/27 +030.6% -102.8% -003.6% -061.4% +012.3% +005.9%
08/28 +950.7% +064.1% +030.3% +026.5% +031.4% +046.4%
08/29 +170.1% +239.7% +029.0% +057.8% +076.5% +102.2%
08/30 -040.6% +053.1% -032.9% +078.0% -035.0% -3169.3%
---- 5-day rate of change ----
08/21 -005.5% +075.9% -015.2% +049.5% +056.9% -005.4%
08/22 +012.3% -025.3% -062.2% -384.5% -033.8% +007.7%
08/23 +116.7% +182.5% +042.3% +1001.8% +153.0% +106.3%
08/26 +087.0% -037.6% -009.8% -036.3% +016.6% +304.4%
08/27 +179.9% -127.0% +033.3% -125.8% +042.5% +120.1%
08/28 +063.0% +240.5% +146.3% +133.6% +008.2% +151.6%
08/29 +066.8% +380.3% +342.9% +1118.2% +132.0% +084.0%
08/30 -060.4% -019.5% -058.6% -040.5% -036.7% -050.9%

On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
---- 1-day change ----
08/21 -043.49% -045.01% -103.38% -042.69% -037.74% -104.00%
08/22 -082.20% -082.17% -108.34% -080.31% -086.16% -144.67%
08/23 +020.36% +002.22% +000.66% -002.50% -001.89% -000.36%
08/26 -002.85% -006.23% -007.13% -005.14% -003.02% -006.66%
08/27 +005.60% -000.20% +000.57% +001.75% +003.48% +003.23%
08/28 +034.56% +020.86% +012.83% +015.68% +017.75% +022.68%
08/29 +049.93% +019.69% +010.36% +017.07% +018.05% +025.68%
08/30 -015.51% +011.35% -004.93% +001.29% -003.55% -007.33%
---- 5-day change ----
08/21 -111.59% -053.41% -087.42% -030.96% -022.67% -033.87%
08/22 -146.87% -758.70% -1505.76% -122.34% -129.62% -127.27%
08/23 +068.60% +020.91% -025.11% -191.23% -199.97% -256.03%
08/26 -125.58% -138.52% -080.55% -280.66% -167.68% -169.90%
08/27 -032.75% -059.30% -025.54% -055.78% -037.43% -039.93%
08/28 +110.95% +058.51% +046.19% +049.53% +052.47% +053.06%
08/29 +1645.08% +223.18% +139.15% +176.73% +207.05% +203.19%
08/30 -032.53% +015.63% -027.35% +013.30% -001.70% -009.88%
---- 5-day rate of change ----
08/21 -063.86% -054.24% -333.65% -595.49% -160.85% -367.71%
08/22 -012.46% -123.89% -038.21% -012.72% -015.23% +001.26%
08/23 +075.30% +658.29% +001.40% +034.37% +002.81% -012.09%
08/26 -146.96% -381.74% -103.00% -335.75% -144.67% -126.89%
08/27 +013.01% -127.90% -015.38% -047.05% -023.24% -021.24%
08/28 +167.83% +058.01% +053.05% +044.46% +044.02% +047.46%
08/29 +450.51% +281.30% +200.03% +158.28% +176.73% +175.29%
08/30 -045.43% +001.22% +005.49% +036.44% +028.79% +025.51%

Rolling 5-day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
08/21 5 Day -0923.43 -0668.82 -1318.55 -0997.42 -1337.45 -1979.27
08/22 5 Day -0969.97 -0906.29 -1815.38 -1173.82 -1699.57 -2260.46
08/23 5 Day -0089.51 -0351.87 -1454.31 -0550.68 -1189.65 -1607.52
08/26 5 Day -0093.46 -0510.24 -1498.36 -0787.14 -1119.96 -1469.82
08/27 5 Day -0064.83 -1034.69 -1551.82 -1270.42 -0981.92 -1382.60
08/28 5 Day +0551.50 -0371.93 -1082.04 -0933.40 -0673.19 -0741.73
08/29 5 Day +1489.54 +0519.57 -0767.86 -0393.95 -0158.39 +0015.99
08/30 5 Day +0884.87 +0795.37 -1020.71 -0086.63 -0213.79 -0490.66

Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
08/21 -235.61 +118.70 -148.98 +009.06 -104.23 -189.73
08/22 -206.73 +088.72 -241.66 -025.77 -139.42 -175.17
08/23 +034.57 +250.69 -139.41 +232.39 +073.93 +011.05
08/26 +064.66 +156.35 -153.06 +147.96 +086.17 +044.68
08/27 +181.01 -042.26 -102.11 -038.11 +122.81 +098.37
08/28 +294.98 +059.38 +047.30 +012.80 +132.85 +247.51
08/29 +491.90 +285.17 +209.50 +155.97 +308.24 +455.29
08/30 +194.88 +229.45 +086.72 +092.81 +195.17 +223.37

Rolling 5-day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
08/21 5 Day -0063.97 +0019.96 +0018.41 +0274.21 +0487.42 +0834.64
08/22 5 Day -0157.92 -0131.50 -0258.76 -0061.26 -0144.38 -0227.59
08/23 5 Day -0049.60 -0104.00 -0323.72 -0178.41 -0433.10 -0810.29
08/26 5 Day -0111.88 -0248.07 -0584.49 -0679.14 -1159.32 -2186.99
08/27 5 Day -0148.51 -0395.18 -0733.74 -1057.95 -1593.28 -3060.31
08/28 5 Day +0016.26 -0163.98 -0394.82 -0533.96 -0757.26 -1436.50
08/29 5 Day +0283.76 +0201.99 +0154.59 +0409.72 +0810.65 +1482.39
08/30 5 Day +0191.45 +0233.57 +0112.31 +0464.22 +0796.88 +1335.93

Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
08/21 -0039.64 +0010.23 -0055.15 -0061.40 -0131.69 -0283.93
08/22 -0044.58 -0002.44 -0076.22 -0069.21 -0151.74 -0280.36
08/23 -0011.01 +0013.64 -0075.15 -0045.42 -0147.49 -0314.25
08/26 -0027.19 -0038.44 -0152.56 -0197.92 -0360.85 -0713.00
08/27 -0023.66 -0087.61 -0176.02 -0291.02 -0444.73 -0864.47
08/28 +0016.05 -0036.79 -0082.65 -0161.63 -0248.94 -0454.23
08/29 +0088.34 +0066.70 +0082.67 +0094.20 +0191.01 +0342.00
08/30 +0048.21 +0067.51 +0087.21 +0128.52 +0246.00 +0429.24

I encourage those with an interest to look at the charts and notice the prior patterns similar to the current one and the resulting price activity.

2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
Tue. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
Tue. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%
Tue. 05/28: 76.82% 109.81% 28.64% 150.02%
Mon. 06/03: 62.23% 62.24% 44.26% 98.99% 27.30%
Mon. 06/10: 26.26% 40.92% 28.42% 82.06% 81.55%
Mon. 06/17: 49.37% 57.96% 18.60% 26.64% 25.50%
Mon. 06/24: 43.95% 23.12% 22.40% 46.88% 15.07%
Mon. 07/01: 61.06% 35.37% 12.65% holiday 16.46%
Mon. 07/08: 67.49% 14.84% 30.80% 11.23% 29.49%
Mon. 07/15: 35.95% 61.87% 96.37% 16.17% 26.04%
Mon. 07/22: 41.69% 48.41% 56.32% 48.74% 18.16%
Mon. 07/29: 122.28% 52.08% 74.77% 74.49% 14.88%
Mon. 08/05: 39.11% 15.18% 26.37% 48.80% 11.41%
Mon. 08/12: 55.46% 42.24% 5.87% 43.65% 24.39%
Mon. 08/19: 46.64% 27.52% 2.56% 13.12% 17.70%
Mon. 08/26: 37.98% 7.04% 14.39% 23.85% 12.50%

=== 2012 ===
Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
May Avg: 67.58%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
Jun Avg: 47.48%, min: 15.07%, max: 98.99%
Jul Avg: 44.47%, min: 11.23%, max: 122.28%
Aug Avg: 30.24%, min: 2.56%, max: 86.11%

0830 Vol 0669393, Sht 0055450 08.28% LHC 0.1300 0.1394 0.1311 b:s 1:2.08
0829 Vol 0506358, Sht 0076599 15.13% LHC 0.1325 0.1390 0.1365 b:s 1:1.78
0828 Vol 0134967, Sht 0011000 08.15% LHC 0.1287 0.1384 0.1350 b:s 1:1.31
0827 Vol 0443365, Sht 0027366 06.17% LHC 0.1287 0.1351 0.1300 b:s 1:7.11
0826 Vol 0517755, Sht 0127656 24.51% LHC 0.1287 0.1390 0.1320 b:s 1:1.73[85]
0823 Vol 0281025, Sht 0035792 12.74% LHC 0.1300 0.1389 0.1369 b:s 1:2.57
0822 Vol 2029326, Sht 0180939 08.92% LHC 0.1270 0.1490 0.1290 b:s 1:2.22
0821 Vol 0923882, Sht 0018500 02.00% LHC 0.1410 0.1650 0.1420 b:s 1:3.49[84]
0820 Vol 1775552, Sht 0280101 15.78% LHC 0.1411 0.1648 0.1560 b:s 1:1.36
0819 Vol 1503311, Sht 0347971 23.15% LHC 0.1360 0.1525 0.1480 b:s 1:1.12[83]
0816 Vol 2028694, Sht 0318700 15.71% LHC 0.1310 0.1400 0.1369 b:s 1:1.91
0815 Vol 2802676, Sht 0705871 25.19% LHC 0.1250 0.1409 0.1320 b:s 1:1.37
0814 Vol 0702343, Sht 0032525 04.63% LHC 0.1329 0.1450 0.1350 b:s 1:3.51[82]
0813 Vol 0773232, Sht 0199158 25.76% LHC 0.1380 0.1523 0.1405 b:s 1:1.60[81]
0812 Vol 0600319, Sht 0174292 29.03% LHC 0.1355 0.1490 0.1390 b:s 1:1.10
0809 Vol 0468800, Sht 0040400 08.62% LHC 0.1391 0.1489 0.1450 b:s 1:3.08
0808 Vol 0613185, Sht 0188020 30.66% LHC 0.1350 0.1415 0.1396 b:s 1:1.73
0807 Vol 0689668, Sht 0121358 17.60% LHC 0.1400 0.1510 0.1410 b:s 1:2.01
0806 Vol 1691806, Sht 0176804 10.45% LHC 0.1405 0.1680 0.1475 b:s 1:2.21
0805 Vol 0420674, Sht 0105969 25.19% LHC 0.1650 0.1711 0.1670 b:s 1:1.89[80]
0802 Vol 0263290, Sht 0033200 12.61% LHC 0.1700 0.1800 0.1711 b:s 1:5.55
0801 Vol 0551180, Sht 0238330 43.24% LHC 0.1700 0.1800 0.1750 b:s 1:1.33[79]
0731 Vol 0499580, Sht 0170750 34.18% LHC 0.1680 0.1748 0.1700 b:s 1.19:1
0730 Vol 0480800, Sht 0144869 30.13% LHC 0.1651 0.1788 0.1666 b:s 1:1.37
0729 Vol 0911825, Sht 0416775 45.71% LHC 0.1580 0.1950 0.1750 b:s 1.70:1[78]
0726 Vol 0638003, Sht 0063020 09.88% LHC 0.1500 0.1600 0.1599 b:s 1:1.19
0725 Vol 1131068, Sht 0247450 21.88% LHC 0.1550 0.1779 0.1602 b:s 1.21:1[77]
0724 Vol 0477758, Sht 0103160 21.59% LHC 0.1750 0.1895 0.1771 b:s 1.58:1
0723 Vol 2043546, Sht 0497243 24.33% LHC 0.1700 0.1950 0.1820 b:s 1:1.01[76]
0722 Vol 0738566, Sht 0146751 19.87% LHC 0.1500 0.1700 0.1699 b:s 1.04:1
0719 Vol 0533630, Sht 0095825 17.96% LHC 0.1515 0.1580 0.1521 b:s 1:2.22
0718 Vol 0415591, Sht 0047883 11.52% LHC 0.1510 0.1590 0.1521 b:s 1:2.92
0717 Vol 0793295, Sht 0334605 42.18% LHC 0.1500 0.1650 0.1530 b:s 1.23:1
0716 Vol 0980658, Sht 0303752 30.97% LHC 0.1390 0.1750 0.1579 b:s 1:1.01
0715 Vol 1532199, Sht 0265900 17.35% LHC 0.1251 0.1380 0.1333 b:s 1.04:1
0712 Vol 0807313, Sht 0165375 20.48% LHC 0.1370 0.1476 0.1380 b:s 1:2.53
0711 Vol 0592400, Sht 0054050 09.12% LHC 0.1400 0.1540 0.1451 b:s 1:4.34
0710 Vol 0362587, Sht 0069013 19.03% LHC 0.1453 0.1685 0.1499 b:s 1:1.55[75]
0709 Vol 0350131, Sht 0042265 12.07% LHC 0.1550 0.1648 0.1552 b:s 1:4.35
0708 Vol 0783838, Sht 0215109 27.44% LHC 0.1512 0.1750 0.1550 b:s 1.33:1
0705 Vol 0160989, Sht 0022069 13.92% LHC 0.1500 0.1559 0.1539 b:s 1:4.97[74]
0703 Vol 0276423, Sht 0026025 09.41% LHC 0.1501 0.1674 0.1550 b:s 1:2.70
0701 Vol 0324355, Sht 0073805 22.75% LHC 0.1510 0.1650 0.1600 b:s 1:1.80
0701 Vol 0445474, Sht 0160033 35.92% LHC 0.1500 0.1675 0.1601 b:s 1:1.49
0628 Vol 0512780, Sht 0046477 09.06% LHC 0.1421 0.1550 0.1532 b:s 1:1.64
0627 Vol 1298856, Sht 0297000 22.87% LHC 0.1390 0.1579 0.1517 b:s 1.06:1[73]
0626 Vol 0898970, Sht 0145356 16.17% LHC 0.1400 0.1600 0.1599 b:s 1:2.50[72]
0625 Vol 0555717, Sht 0094600 17.02% LHC 0.1550 1.1700 0.1550 b:s 1:3.00[71]
0624 Vol 0598247, Sht 0145110 24.26% LHC 0.1620 0.1800 0.1699 b:s 1:1.39
0621 Vol 0808784, Sht 0146900 18.16% LHC 0.1700 0.1900 0.1740 b:s 1:2.78
0620 Vol 0735033, Sht 0146500 19.93% LHC 0.1850 0.1990 0.1871 b:s 1:3.22
0619 Vol 0295911, Sht 0043900 14.84% LHC 0.1900 0.1999 0.1980 b:s 1:4.11
0618 Vol 0187360, Sht 0065840 35.14% LHC 0.1920 0.2000 0.1950 b:s 1:2.17[70]
0617 Vol 0436047, Sht 0141509 32.45% LHC 0.1951 0.2120 0.2000 b:s 1:1.92
0614 Vol 0742259, Sht 0310280 41.80% LHC 0.1970 0.2650 0.2010 b:s 1:1.06
0613 Vol 0433078, Sht 0158507 36.60% LHC 0.1902 0.2000 0.1970 b:s 1.18:1
0612 Vol 0532910, Sht 0107142 20.11% LHC 0.1900 0.2000 0.1997 b:s 1:3.12[69]
0611 Vol 1293346, Sht 0309200 23.91% LHC 0.1900 0.2180 0.2000 b:s 1:1.41[68]
0610 Vol 1314871, Sht 0131800 16.87% LHC 0.2100 0.2349 0.2120 b:s 1:2.45[67]
0607 Vol 0781176, Sht 0131800 16.87% LHC 0.2201 0.2500 0.2350 b:s 1:1.70
0606 Vol 0554985, Sht 0192595 34.70% LHC 0.2500 0.2639 0.2500 b:s 1.82:1
0605 Vol 0218283, Sht 0072968 33.43% LHC 0.2530 0.2601 0.2585 b:s 1:3.09
0604 Vol 0077889, Sht 0030500 39.16% LHC 0.2605 0.2719 0.2605 b:s 1:1.70
0603 Vol 0296541, Sht 0095000 32.04% LHC 0.2700 0.2775 0.2726 b:s 1:1.12[66]

[66] The FINRA data excludes a 5K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 32.04% to 31.50%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 95K to 100K and percentage from 32.04% to 33.16%.
[67] Finra data excludes two AH trades, 10593 and 5K, totaling 15593, both at $0.21. Adding them to the volume moves the Finra-reported volume from 1314871 to 1330464, and the short percentage from the FINRA-based calculated 18.75% to 18.53%. If we also add it to the daily short sales, the short sales move to 262100 from the FINRA-reported 246507 and the short percentage moves to 19.70%.
[68] Three AH trades at $0.20 of 8K, 8K and 2.5K are not included in FINRA daily short sales. Including that volume moves FINRA-reported daily volume from 1,293,346 to 1,311,846 and short percentage from 23.91% to 23.57%. If we also include them in the daily short sales, daily shorts goes to 327,700 and short percentage moves to 24.98%.
[69] A very unusual trade before the open ($0.20x2.5K) and one after the close ($0.1935x2.5K) do not appear on the FINRA data. Adding these to Finra's total volume would move it from 532,910 to 537,910 and reduce the short percentage from 20.11% to 19.92%. If we also add it to the day's short sales, short volume moves from 107,142 to 112,142 and short percentage moves to 20.85%.
[70] A 2K AH trade is not included in the FINRA-reported volumes. Adding this to the days volume move the volume from 187,360 to 189,360 and the short percentage from 35.14% to 34.77%. If the 2K is also added to daily short sales, the short volume moves from 65,840 to 67,840 and short percentage to 35.83%.
[71] A 15K AH trade is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 555,717 to 570,717 and the short percentage from 17.02% to 16.58%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 109,600 and the short percentage to 19.20%.
[72] A 15K AH trade is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 898,970 to 913,970 and the short percentage from 16.17% to 15.90%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 160,356 and the short percentage to 17.54%.
[73] Two out-of-hours trades, a 5K pre-market and a 15K after-hours trade, are not included in FINRA data. Adding them to total volume moves the volume from the reported 1,298,856 shares to 1,313,856 and the short percentage from 22.87% to 22,61%. If they are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 312,000 and the short percentage to 23.75%.
[74] One AH trade of 2.5K is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 158,489 shares to 160,989 and the short percentage from 13.92% to 13.71%. If they are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 24,569 and the short percentage to 15.26%.
[75] One AH trade of 6K is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 362,587 shares to 368,587 and the short percentage from 19.03% to 18.72%. If they are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 75,513 and the short percentage to 20.35%.
[76] There was a 2K AH trade. With today's volumes the impact would be too small to worry about, so I will not detail the various potential changes here.
[78] There were 2 5K pre-market trades at $0.18 & $0.1899. The FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include the pre-market trades. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 911,825 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 45.71% to 45.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 416,775 to 426,775 and the short percentage would be 46.30%.
[79] There was a 14.9K AH trade at $0.1750. FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include out-of-hours trades. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 551,180 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 43.24% to 42.10%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 238,330 to 253,230 and the short percentage would be 44.73%.
[80] There was a 5K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 420,674 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 25.19% to my 24.89%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 105,969 to 110,969 and the short percentage would be 26.07%.
[81] There was a 3K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 773,232 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 25.76% to my 25.66%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 199,158 to 202,158 and the short percentage would be 26.04%
[82] There was a 10K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 702,343 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 5.97% to my 04.57%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 35,525 to 42,525 and the short percentage would be 05.97%
[83] There was a 4K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,503,311 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 23.15% to my 23.09%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 347,971 to 351,971 and the short percentage would be 23.35%.
[84] There was a 5K pre-market trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 923,882 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 2% to my 1.99%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 18,500 to 23,500 and the short percentage would be 2.53%.
[85] There was a 10K pre-market trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 520,755 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 24.51% to my 24.05%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 127,656 to 137,656 and the short percentage would be 25.94%.

08/29/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 83 MinTrSz: 360 MaxTrSz: 20000 Vol 506358 AvTrSz: 6101
Min. Pr: 0.1325 Max Pr: 0.1390 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1348
# Buys, Shares: 31 180187 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1362
# Sells, Shares: 51 321171 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1340
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1349
Buy:Sell 1:1.78 (35.6% "buys"), DlyShts 76599 (15.13%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.85%

For the near-term, it looks likes astute buyers are acting early in the day and astute sellers are waiting until late in the day to come in. How long this complete reversal of what had been "normal" behavior - early-day "strength" (actually, might be just "flatter") and late-day weakness in price - will last is uncertain. I believe it may be the pattern until the next share issue. OTOH, maybe some of this is due to some recent publicity and might end soon or not at all. No way to tell.

Anyway, today was similar to yesterday, but stronger, in the trading action. Notice the absence, again, of severe "late-day weakness" and the tendency of VWAP to increase throughout the day, rather than erratically decline slowly after early improvement. Note that, again (not mentioned yesterday), long periods of intransigence by the sellers and buyers gave us (sometimes) good spreads on the bid/ask and periods of no, or low, volume. But today's volume was much improved, up 275% over yesterday's, so it looks like folks are aware of the behavior change.

Here's a time breakdown.
09:31-10:29: 058500 shares, 11.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1334, 18.8% buys
10:36-10:59: 107201 shares, 21.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1340, 29.9% buys
11:01-12:08: 043300 shares, 08.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1340, 0.0% buys
12:15-12:38: 017636 shares, 03.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1359, 94.3% buys
12:39-13:08: 120263 shares, 23.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1352, 53.2% buys
13:09-14:04: 094188 shares, 18.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1358, 60.1% buys
15:09-15:39: 029470 shares, 05.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 0.0% buys
15:50-15:58: 035800 shares, 07.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1362, 0.0% buys

Yesterday, as mentioned, not quite as strong, but decent.
09:31-10:16: 024500 shares, 18.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1308, 40.8% buys
10:03-11:09: 024200 shares, 17.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1313, 39.3% buys
10:58-12:06: 023767 shares, 17.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 2.1% buys
11:53-12:48: 032450 shares, 24.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1333, 52.4% buys
13:09-13:39: 014600 shares, 10.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1326, 0.0% buys
14:07-14:44: 025400 shares, 18.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1340, 59.1% buys
15:08-15:50: 013850 shares, 10.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1330, 87.0% buys

I'm thinking yesterday's "Today looked like the start of the "hold price up a few days so we have someone to sell to" period ..." was on target. Today there was again less jostling on the asks, although what jostling there was involved the usual MMs: ARCA, ATDF and NITE. Additional support appeared on the bid side in the form of larger bids I noted in some comments in the concentrator. Around 14:00 EDT ATDF bid $0.1335x100K and at 15:06 BNCH trumped that with a $0.135x100K bid.

Stepping around the asks to hit the bids increased a bit today, likely due to higher prices on the bids being attractive to those folks (interesting, if so, because we're looking at VWAP increase of 24/100ths of a penny being "attractive"?!). This is evidenced by the weaker buy percentage of 35.6% vs. yesterday's 43.4%. I still like anything in the 35%+ range as it's in the normal range and provides a decent starting point for any surge in the metric. If we see some consistency in the mid-3x% range or higher for a few days we should see VWAP hold up well and maybe even appreciate a bit.

Daily short sales percentage continues an up-leg which I anticipate is part of a near-term net-sideways trend. With the price action we've been seeing, I might end up being wrong on this one - might just climb and end with a spike. Anyway, here's a few days' percentages: 24.05% , 06.17% , 08.15% and 15.13%.

10-day average trade size continued to settle from its recent climb - essentially flat at 7004. The predicted price move, while not "hefty" yet, seems underway. I'll be adding this to the mix of short-term things I watch to try and detect any likely change in price behavior.

Some of my inflection point stuff is showing nice numbers too. But the volatility keeps me wary for now.

For our downtrodden and broken stock, a relatively stellar day.

Week ending values for the 85% price tracking have been omitted here to keep things briefer in the concentrator.

This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
08/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1415, x 85%: $0.1203
08/27: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1404, x 85%: $0.1193
08/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1394, x 85%: $0.1185
08/29: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1386, x 85%: $0.1178

Vol, in K, for above days: 530.76, 443.37, 134.97, 506.36.

Regarding the inflection point calculations, my "jaundiced eye" caveat still applies.

Yesterday I said "... they are now in a state where I would watch for "The Pattern" on the charts in normal times. In our current environment I don't expect them to develop. I expect we'll see a short-term price bump, at best, before the next ton of shares get put into the hands of the "financiers". If the posited support of price by the "financiers" appears, I could be wrong about all that".

That's still my thinking. As expected, my original version has the early part of the pattern formation appearing with the 5 and 10-day periods beginning to rotate into a parabolic move up. For the pattern to complete several of the longer-term must also do that and, ultimately, we see on my chart a "gaggle" all going near-vertical in concert. This last part is what I doubt will appear unless I'm completely wrong - always likely - about the financiers' coming behavior.

Anyway, for now, the 5-day period started its turn on 8/23 in advance of a further dip and recovery in price ($0.1337, $0.1316, $0.1305, $0.1324 and $0.1348) and the 10-day followed on 8/27. But the original versions are a bit "flaky" and we can't assign much weight at this early stage of the pattern.

Regardless, the original metrics' one-day changes have only the five-day period with substantial continued improvement. The other periods are marginally weaker but for one with marginal improvement. This should support our "no confidence" vote for now. The 5-day changes however show the trend as it really is for now. The 5-day period shows substantially reducing strength (note that is not "weakness" - the number is still positive, just less so) while the 10-day shows continuing substantially increasing strength. The remaining periods have mostly marginal increases in strength and one marginal decrease. The rates of change, except for the 200-day period, all continue to strengthen, mostly by noticeable amounts. If this last set of metrics continues its current behavior I'll certainly be wrong about the pattern completion failing as we go forward.

The newer version also has a positive slant, but not decidedly so. Four periods are indicating marginal strengthening and two marginal reduction in strength. All are still in positive territory though. This makes three consecutive days with five of the six periods positive each day and a general trend of strengthening in the numbers. One more day of general improvement and I think we can call a trend. The change over five days has all six periods continuing to go more positive and the improvements from the prior readings are again strong. If I wasn't influenced by knowledge of the "financiers" and the marginality of the one-day changes I might think our "price bump" had a real future. The rates of change over the five days for all periods continue strengthening. This is the third consecutive positive reading for the 5-day period and the second for the others.

Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 134967, AvTrSz: 3292
Min. Pr: 0.1287, Max Pr: 0.1384, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1324
# Buys, Shares: 12 58550, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1338
# Sells, Shares: 29 76417, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1312
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.31 (43.4% "buys"), DlyShts 11000 (8.15%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.39%

Today looked like the start of the "hold price up a few days so we have someone to sell to" period. Checking my charts, we've seen little bumps up before each share issuance to "financiers". There was very little jostling on the asks today - even ARCA planted the flag at $0.14 and refused to move. There were still a fair amount of people stepping around the asks to hit the bids, but not so frequent as to force the bids into nastier territory for very long. Our sub-$0.13 trades were only the second and third of the day and no trade went below $0.13 thereafter.

Even the typical "late-day weakness" was ... well, "weak". Only NITE made a move on the ask at 14:14, stepping in front of the $0.1379 ask with their own $0.135 20K ask - about midway between the $0.1326/$0.1379 bid/ask at the time. Moreover, the trend on the bid side was generally up before stabilizing around 11:00 at >=$0.13. It briefly went as high as $0.1327. As can be deduced from the day's high, the asks also had a brief fling with levitation, going as high as $0.1385.

I mentioned yesterday that daily short sales percentage may be entering its sideways move for a few cycles. Today honored that forecast by moving only slightly up from yesterdays 6.17%. Up and (maybe some) down, generally netting out to "sideways", should be the trend for a few days.

I noted yesterday 10-day average trade size continued to climb. I said "... if the financing deal hasn't scuttled its effects, should be predicting a price move". Well, right on schedule, the 10-day average trade size is starting to show a little weakness and VWAP made a small bump up. Let's hope this trend holds through ~9/6 or so when new shares should be issued.

Yesterday I touched on getting buy percentage back in range and noted it had started moving the right way but had tried to break the trend and it was certain we don't yet have the consistency I am looking for. Well, today the buy percentage is trying to "Do the Right Thing" again. This is the first day in the 4x% range since 8/20. If we see some consistency in the mid-3x% range or higher for a few days we should see VWAP hold up well and maybe even appreciate a bit.

Some of my inflection point stuff is showing nice numbers too. But the volatility keeps me wary for now.

For our downtrodden and broken stock, a relatively stellar day.

Week ending values for the 85% price tracking have been omitted here to keep things briefer in the concentrator.

This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
08/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1415, x 85%: $0.1203
08/27: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1404, x 85%: $0.1193
08/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1394, x 85%: $0.1185

Vol, in K, for above days: 530.76, 443.37, 134.97.

Regarding the inflection point calculations, my "jaundiced eye" caveat still applies. However, they are now in a state where I would watch for "The Pattern" on the charts in normal times. In our current environment I don't expect them to develop. I expect we'll see a short-term price bump, at best, before the next ton of shares get put into the hands of the "financiers". If the posited support of price by the "financiers" appears, I could be wrong about all that. A little detail follows.

The original experimental inflection point calculations have five one-day changes flipped from reducing weakening to strengthening and the sixth period, the 25-day, still shows reducing weakening. If tomorrow doesn't go in the dumpster, it should also flip. The five day change is positive and improved for every period, most notably the 5-day period. Three of the periods have two consecutive days of strengthening and the other three flipped from reducing weakening to strengthening. The rate of change is positive for all periods with 4 having two consecutive days of strengthening and two have transitioned from reducing weakening to strengthening. Generally, strengthening is more pronounced than the weakening.

The newer version also has an optimistic set of one-day changes with every period positive, indicating strengthening. This makes two consecutive days for five of the six periods. The changes are generally moderate to strong in nature. It may be the start of a new trend, but two days in our volatile environment is not sufficient to hazard a guess yet. The change over five days has all six periods flipping positive from negative and the improvements from the prior reading are strong. But it's only one day, so it's not a trend yet. The rates of change for all periods show strengthening. This is the second consecutive positive reading for the 5-day period and the others all flipped from negative to positive.

Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/27/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 73, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 443365, AvTrSz: 6073
Min. Pr: 0.1287, Max Pr: 0.1351, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1305
# Buys, Shares: 12 54666, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1331
# Sells, Shares: 61 388699, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1301
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:7.11 (12.3% "buys"), DlyShts 27366 (6.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 7.04%

Maximum share issue price (for now) is $0.1193 and will continue lower.

The price spread narrowed to $0.0064 from yesterday's $0.0103 as volume dropped 16.47%. Buy percentage was looking good through 11:21. We had a positive reading. Subsequent to that point the sells were 93.2% of all trades and 96.16% of volume.

We got back near the 8/15 low of $0.1250, which had a VWAP of $0.1309. Today we got a late-day weakness low price only 37/100ths higher and a VWAP of $0.1304. Notice the different behavior coming off such lows with and without the "financiers" in our market. Without them, price essentially flattens out after the rebound off the bottom to a near-term higher price and then a trend change appears after a (short?) while.

Daily short sales percentage may be entering its sideways move for a few cycles. Low and high percentages may tend to converge. Then a break to a high level will likely come. Duration is only a guess - a week maximum? Normally it would be associated with a small rise in price. In current circumstances, it may not be so associated.

10-day average trade size continues to climb, which, if the financing deal hasn't scuttled its effects, should be predicting a price move. I'm hoping that the action today is not the start of that move already, but there's no way to tell in this environment. The low volume gives some hope that today was just more consolidation.

Week ending values:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1410
08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 VWAP $0.1348
08/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1423, x 85%: $0.1210 VWAP $0.1337

Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920, 6,522.

This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
08/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1415, x 85%: $0.1203
08/27: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1404, x 85%: $0.1193

Vol, in K, for above days: 530.76, 443.37.

Yesterday I said, regarding getting buy percentage back in range, "... We have a trend going that makes this seem quite possible. Here's a few days' percentages of "buys": 44.0%, 42.1%, 22.3%, 30.6%, 28.0% and 36.7% today. It's started moving the right way". Today is trying to break the trend. It's certain we don't yet have the consistency I am looking for.

Regarding the inflection point calculations, my "jaundiced eye" caveat still applies.

The original experimental inflection point calculation one-day changes continued the weakening seen yesterday. The five day is mixed in both short and long periods, as are the rates of change.

The newer version has a slightly more optimistic set of one-day changes with five of the six periods positive, indicating strengthening. Unfortunately with the "lumpiness" we've been seeing and the very small positive values it's not reasonable to say it's showing a new trend is beginning. However, the change over five days has all six periods showing reducing weakness ATM. But it's only one day, so I don't give it a lot of weight yet. The rates of change for all periods shows reducing weakness.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/26/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 80, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol 530755, AvTrSz: 6634
Min. Pr: 0.1287, Max Pr: 0.1390, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1316
# Buys, Shares: 35 194600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1333
# Sells, Shares: 45 336155, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1307
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.73 (36.7%), DlyShts 127656 (24.05%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 37.98%

There was a 10K pre-market trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 520,755 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 24.51% to my 24.05%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 127,656 to 137,656 and the short percentage would be 25.94%.

We keep injecting sub-$0.14 VWAPs into the 40-day window. This will eventually assure that even if we get a huge price rise on big news, the "financiers" will be getting huge amounts of sub-$0.12 (now) shares to dump into the market and prevent any substantial price rise near-term. The epithets I would apply to this financing deal and all involved in producing it knows no bounds.

Week ending values:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1410
08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 VWAP $0.1348
08/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1423, x 85%: $0.1210 VWAP $0.1337

Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920, 6,522.

This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
08/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1415, x 85%: $0.1203

Vol, in K, for above days: 530.76.

The price spread opened up a bit from yesterday's $0.0089 and volume almost doubled. Daily shorts were about 3.6 times yesterday's and the daily short percentage moved back into more normal range (above all the averages and just above the long-term trend line and the descending short-term trend line I added a while back). This fits with my mention yesterday that "... continues to move up towards normal after hitting an extreme low. If it acts as before, in a couple days or so it ought to intersect a falling trend line I added a while back. Looks like it would be around the 20% area ...". I have also mentioned in the past that this situation is needed for normal price and market activity. Now, let's see what happens over the next few days.

Maybe these are the signs that a move is finally arriving, as I have been suggesting since I thought we would go flat for a while and then get a move. Related to this, I posted a comment about average trade size yesterday that also suggests a move is in the works. The 10-day average continues to move up, suggesting a change in behavior is nigh - today's 10-day average is up to 7,430, just 110 less than the maximum I noted in the comment.

Yesterday I said, in part, regarding buy percentage, "This will be visible when the buy percentage gets back into the 35%+ range consistently enough to move the near-term averages back towards the longer-term averages ...". We have a trend going that makes this seem quite possible. Here's a few days' percentages of "buys": 44.0%, 42.1%, 22.3%, 30.6%, 28.0% and 36.7% today. It's started moving the right way.

Regarding the inflection point calculations, my "jaundiced eye" caveat still applies.

Today reverses the attempt at more positive behavior seen yesterday, when I noted the "lumpiness" of the readings. The one-day changes in the original are mostly mildly more negative and the changes over five days a little more so. The rate of change over five days also weakened.

Yesterday I said of the newer version one-day readings "... odds look pretty good that all six periods could show strengthening". They gave up yesterday's mild strengthening and now show mild weakening. The possibility of a positive trend remains since the weakness is not (yet?) strong. The changes over five days show a similar weakening, as do the rates of change.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 53, MinTrSz: 900, MaxTrSz: 18033, Vol 281025, AvTrSz: 5302
Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1389, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.1337
# Buys, Shares: 17 78792, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1348
# Sells, Shares: 36 202233, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1333
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.57 (28.0% "buys"), DlyShts 35792 (12.74%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.70%

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 Wk cls VWAP $0.1348
08/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
08/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
08/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
08/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1431, x 85%: $0.1216
08/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1423, x 85%: $0.1210

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920.3.
Vol, in K, for above days: 1507.31, 1775.55, 928.88, 2029.33, 281.03.

Volume fell through the floor and the price spread was extremely narrow. Classic signs of consolidation if we didn't seem to have some kind of exceptional activity every other day here. Volume, price, daily short sales, experimental calculations, ... if it's not one thing it's another. In the case of our volume, what's the floor? Pick one of my 10, 25, 50 or 100-day averages, in thousands: 1344, 1004, 812 and 595. We probably ought to throw these out as the last seven days included the highest since 2/12 and the fourth(?) highest since then along with some others that were quite high. Let's pick on the 200-day average of 445K as the floor. Yep, even with that we went down to a sub-floor.

Daily short percentage continues to move up towards normal after hitting an extreme low. If it acts as before, in a couple days or so it ought to intersect a falling trend line I added a while back. Looks like it would be around the 20% area. It'll be interesting to see if it penetrates that line, and by how much, and what price and volume do for a short time thereafter regardless of penetration or rebound.

I mentioned Thursday the daily short volume was "... much higher than yesterday (9.78 times yesterday's) but the percentage was low because of the high trading volume ... This leads me to think that we could see some price move up in a couple of days as the market-makers do what market-makers do". With daily short sales acting as they are and VWAP flat (0.1337 and 0.1337) instead of down, I suspect a move of a penny or two is likely soon. Let's hope it is up.

I think we might have lucked out in having the VWAP stay flat - two market-makers had folks with lots of testosterone, apparently, fighting for top (more appropriately "bottom"?) spot on the ask queue at one point. They dropped the asking price from $0.1346 to $0.1319 in six minutes as they leapfrogged each other in five changes that I caught. The ask side was a lot like yesterday - a constant struggle to get to the bottom price, for the most part. ARCA, ATDF and NITE were predominant today. PERT and BTIG tried before the price got too low. Then they mostly probably did what I do a lot - sit back and laugh?

I noted yesterday "As we might expect when price gets low enough, the buy percentage improved from yesterday's 22.3%. ... [re sightings of bullishness] ... This will be visible when the buy percentage gets back into the 35%+ range consistently enough to move the near-term averages back towards the longer-term averages ...". Considering the jostling on the ask for bottom price, we held up pretty well today with our 28% vs. yesterday's 30.6% "buys" - good enough to keep three of the four averages "flat", with the 25-day being the only drop, from 40% to 39%. As long as the sellers tussle the buyers see no need to hit the asks hard.

Note that in the inflection point calculations, we need a jaundiced eye because of the volatility caused by the (mis)behavior of the underlying metrics.

The original version has one-day changes that show strengthening in the near-term and reduced weakening in the longer-term but we haven't yet established a trend. However, the latest reading for change over five days shows strengthening across the board. Although it also has been volatile, there does seem to be more of a trend appearing and we might consider giving these indications some weight. But be aware that my newer calculation versions do not agree with this and I have been gaining more confidence in the newer version. The shorter-terms get some support from positive trending in the rate of change over the last few days, although that trend is still "lumpy".

The newer version, like the original, has one-day changes that show strengthening in the near-term and reduced weakening in the longer-term but we haven't yet established a trend. Unlike the original, whose latest readings for change over five days shows strengthening across the board, the newer one is showing strengthening only in the two shortest time-frames, reduced weakening in the 25-day calculation, and increased weakening in the longer time-frames. Generally the longer-time-frames have a trend of increasing weakness. The rate of change readings are generally positive, with a trend over the last few days in that direction, although the trend is "lumpy" just like the originals calculations' trends.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/22/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 213, MinTrSz: 800, MaxTrSz: 74200, Vol 2029326, AvTrSz: 9527
Min. Pr: 0.1270, Max Pr: 0.1490, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1337
# Buys, Shares: 81 620677, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1350
# Sells, Shares: 129 1378649, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1330
# Unkn, Shares: 3 30000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1385
Buy:Sell 1:2.22 (30.6% "buys"), DlyShts 180939 (8.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.12%

Today was the fourth highest volume since I began tracking in February of '12.

The daily short volume was much higher than yesterday (9.78 times yesterday's) but the percentage was low because of the high trading volume. Regardless, it was good to see that yesterdays percentage, 1.99%, stopped right at one of the trend lines I had added and today moved up from there. This leads me to think that we could see some price move up in a couple of days as the market-makers do what market-makers do.

Of the 23 peeks at the ask, 7 were bumps up and 16 were reductions. Buyers responded appropriately as 5 peeks out of 18 raised bids and 13 reduced bids.

As we might expect when price gets low enough, the buy percentage improved from yesterday's 22.3%. There's a way to go before we can sight any bulls though. For now I think it's just buyers who see low risk. We'll know we have bulls when they start driving price higher rather than letting the wet-noodle sellers drive price lower. This will be visible when the buy percentage gets back into the 35%+ range consistently enough to move the near-term averages back towards the longer-term averages (percentages of 40, 37 and 39 for the 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively).

Yesterday I said in part "... although today's EOD readings suggest that a change in trend may NOT yet have occurred. Today this last assessment seems born out by an apparent return to what is "normal" for our stock". Today continues "what is "normal" for our stock" - dumpster diving! Axion stock is a homeless person in disguise. A homeless person has a better appearance.

Yesterday I foolishly spaketh thusly: "Today may break the trend as an unexpected burst of bullish behavior appeared at 13:49 ... I'm now expecting a daily short sales spike and if it occurs it suggests a change in trend. Doesn't suggest up or down, just a change". Well, if trading volume hadn't been so high we would've had a spike daily short sales. As it is, the percentage did still move nicely up but the VWAP moved (10.78%).

Saving face - what's left of it - I did note yesterday that my observations and metrics did not support a continued push up in price.

I anxiously await the posited support of price by the financiers, or better yet, by BIG news. Speaking of financiers ...

Peek below at what's happening to the 85% price as we inject another sub-$0.14 VWAP day into the 40-day window. From 8/5 to today our 85% price has dropped 6.1% from $0.1295 to today's $0.1216. The coming issuance should be more fun than a barrel of monkey's (feces).

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 Wk cls VWAP $0.1348
08/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
08/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
08/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
08/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1431, x 85%: $0.1216

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920.3.
Vol, in K, for above days: 1507.31, 1775.55, 928.88, 2029.33.

I've stopped putting percentages for the inflection point stuff here - rapidly getting too long. They're in the instablog in a more coordinated fashion for those with an interest.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/21/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 119, MinTrSz: 180, MaxTrSz: 37500, Vol 928882, AvTrSz: 7806
Min. Pr: 0.1410, Max Pr: 0.1650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1498
# Buys, Shares: 40 206819, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1532
# Sells, Shares: 79 722063, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1489
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.49 (22.3% "buys"), DlyShts 18500 (1.99%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 2.56%

There was a 5K pre-market trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 923,882 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 2% to my 1.99%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 18,500 to 23,500 and the short percentage would be 2.53%.

It's amazing how few green (denoting improved bid or ask) bars I saw today on the bid and ask changes. It was like watching lemmings over a cliff, with very brief exceptions. I had 43 "peeks" and most of the changes were on the ask (26) and lower. Buyers recognized this early but had more balance between increases and decreases (yellow bars).

Yesterday I said in part "I may have failed to give sufficient weight to what my newer inflection point calculations had been suggesting, although today's EOD readings suggest that a change in trend may NOT yet have occurred". Today this last assessment seems born out by an apparent return to what is "normal" for our stock.

I had noted the decrease in daily short sales volatility expected that trend to continue and said in part "... the last few days show this as the range narrows: 25.19%, 15.71%, 23.09% and 15.78% (today). Today may break the trend as an unexpected burst of bullish behavior appeared at 13:49 ... I'm now expecting a daily short sales spike and if it occurs it suggests a change in trend. Doesn't suggest up or down, just a change.

WHOOPS! Daily short sales plummeted! Still within the trend lines I've drawn (don't really know how useful they are other than they allowed me to spot a potential pattern that did work one time so far as suggested). I now expect continued low values for a few days along with flat or slightly down share price. The experimental inflection point calculations below suggest this as well.

My "WHOOPS" may be forgiven because I also said "But today's readings of the inflection point calculations again suggest it may not have been important because they do not support continuation of the rise we saw today". I also noted "Note the "late-day weakness" today refers to the rush to take profits (83.9% "sells"), not the VWAP. There was price compression though. Even before I knew what the EOD numbers looked like I was thinking this push up couldn't go far because of the heavy profit-taking seen as the late-day weakness bloomed to it's full glory. Another thing that makes me think the push up will stall is that the volume, although higher, was not strongly higher. I expect today will show lower volume again". Today's volume was 52.3% of yesterday's.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 Wk cls VWAP $0.1348
08/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
08/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
08/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920.3.
Vol, in K, for above days: 1507.31, 1775.55, 928.88.

I'm going to stop putting percentages for the inflection point stuff here - rapidly getting too long. They're in the instablog in a more coordinated fashion for those with an interest.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/20/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 242, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 60000, Vol 1775552, AvTrSz: 7337
Min. Pr: 0.1411, Max Pr: 0.1648, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1545
# Buys, Shares: 109 747896, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1555
# Sells, Shares: 130 1017656, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1539
# Unkn, Shares: 3 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1539
Buy:Sell 1:1.36 (42.1% "buys"), DlyShts 280101 (15.78%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.52%

Yesterday I focused on some possible outcomes related to a daily short sales pattern I had identified. In the process I may have failed to give sufficient weight to what my newer inflection point calculations had been suggesting, although today's EOD readings suggest that a change in trend may NOT yet have occurred.

For the daily short sales pattern, I had noted the decrease in volatility continued and expected that trend to continue. It did so and the short percentages for the last few days show this as the range narrows: 25.19%, 15.71%, 23.09% and 15.78% (today). Today may break the trend as an unexpected burst of bullish behavior appeared at 13:49 when a major turn in bid/ask behavior occurred. I'm now expecting a daily short sales spike and if it occurs it suggests a change in trend. Doesn't suggest up or down, just a change. This seems even more likely since the inflection point calculations had been improving over several days, which I have been noting. I may not have given them the weight they deserved because I was focused on the new pattern of daily short sales I had spotted and I don't trust much of any TA since the financing deal was cut.

But today's readings of the inflection point calculations again suggest it may not have been important because they do not support continuation of the rise we saw today.

Briefly, relating to the short sales, yesterday I saw three possibilities. I thought the one most likely was "... the next behavior could be a couple days with a more-or-less flat VWAP with the intra-day highs plateauing, or even dropping a bit, while the lows grind up a bit - i.e. convergence typical of a short-term consolidation. In this case the daily short sales would vacillate around the "normal" range, or even the lower part of it. Volume decline continues".

Prior to 13:49, this was looking like the correct call. VWAP was up only 46/100ths of a penny to $0.1485 (typical late-day weakness hadn't come in yet), price spread was $0.1411-$0.1525 (higher low and high flat with Monday's), and volume was ~499K (estimated on track to end no higher than 1.1MM-1.2MM shares traded, down from ~1.5MM).

I commented in the APC that there may have been some kind of news leak? Jveal said he'd seen more mention of Axion on penny-stock sites and Geopark said that he emailed 2greenenrgy. The 2greenenergy site had done a very short piece mentioning Axion. These may explain what happened. I was at a loss to do so.

Here's parts of what we looked like before 13:49, 13:49 and prior to late-day weakness, and late-day weakness (came later than normally: 15:17) to EOD.
Min. Pr: 0.1411, Max Pr: 0.1525, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1485, Buy:Sell 1:1.30 (43.1% "buys")
Min. Pr: 0.1505, Max Pr: 0.1648, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1562, Buy:Sell 1.32:1 (56.5% "buys")
Min. Pr: 0.1552, Max Pr: 0.1630, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1581, Buy:Sell 1:5.21 (16.1% "buys")

Note the "late-day weakness" today refers to the rush to take profits (83.9% "sells"), not the VWAP. There was price compression though. Even before I knew what the EOD numbers looked like I was thinking this push up couldn't go far because of the heavy profit-taking seen as the late-day weakness bloomed to it's full glory.

Another thing that makes me think the push up will stall is that the volume, although higher, was not strongly higher. I expect today will show lower volume again.

One more from yesterday, regarding the daily shorts activity: "If daily short sales have started a progressive climb (possible with what's shown so far), but does not "spike", look for VWAP to continue to slowly climb, accompanied by declining volume". The short sales did not climb, but rather declined on both a volume and percentage basis in spite of increased trading volume. So this also suggests, if the newly-identified pattern correlation is valid that the rise will not be strong, although I can't suggest the trend is broken based on one day's reversal - this vacillation is completely normal.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 Wk cls VWAP $0.1348
08/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
08/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920.3.
Vol, in K, for above days: 1507.31, 1775.55.

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -5.4% 12.2% -7.9% 3.8% -2.5% -2.5%
5-day change: -132.7% 36.3% -42.0% 29.3% -2.9% -10.7%
5-day rate of change change: -343.5% -13.4% -353.1% 45.0% -44.5% -335.2%

The changes on my original experimental inflection point calculations show a decline in the rate of improvement we have been seeing over the prior three days for the one-day change.
08/15/13 -27.4% -15.8% -2.3% -4.9% -2.7% -3.8% 1-day
08/16/13 -29.9% -16.8% -9.5% -11.2% -6.6% -4.9% 1-day
08/19/13 -3.3% 1.5% -3.4% 1.5% 0.4% -2.0% 1-day
08/15/13 -75.0% -6.9% -5.8% -0.2% -22.8% -34.3% 5-day
08/16/13 -512.0% -18.9% -24.7% -63.9% -55.5% -20.1% 5-day
08/19/13 -58.9% 19.5% 3.2% 10.8% 0.5% -1.8% 5-day
08/15/13 -16.6% 100.4% 970.8% 42.0% -1092.8% -118.8% change rate
08/16/13 -26.9% -4427.2% -69.5% -107.5% -294.2% -318.1% change rate
08/19/13 -57.6% 855.4% 144.9% 141.4% -8.4% -4.2% change rate

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: 27.1% 39.2% 42.3% 40.0% 34.6% 57.7%
5-day change: -225.5% 176.7% -17.9% 27.9% -2.3% -8.4%
5-day rate of change change: -172.0% -51.4% -114.9% -91.8% -125.5% -113.5%

On my newer version the same reduction in improvement is happening.
08/15/13 -53.6% -33.9% -41.8% -32.0% -29.6% -47.3% 1-day
08/16/13 -13.9% -3.1% 11.2% 5.1% 10.0% 16.6% 1-day
08/19/13 21.2% 22.5% 35.1% 29.0% 29.8% 39.5% 1-day
08/15/13 -51.6% -282.6% -58.4% -51.0% -46.4% -47.9% 5-day
08/16/13 -91.6% -44.4% -57.5% -82.9% -50.5% -35.2% 5-day
08/19/13 341.0% 67.6% 242.6% 537.6% 111.9% 81.1% 5-day
08/15/13 -17.2% -2.6% -5.2% -6.7% -11.1% -10.9% change rate
08/16/13 -31.5% -39.2% -38.5% -42.4% -43.5% -37.3% change rate
08/19/13 81.1% -36.7% 24.6% -12.7% -17.8% -26.7% -24.8% change rate

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/19/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 159, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 1507311, AvTrSz: 9480
Min. Pr: 0.1360, Max Pr: 0.1525, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1439
# Buys, Shares: 75 663211, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1438
# Sells, Shares: 65 746100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1437
# Unkn, Shares: 19 98000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1466
Buy:Sell 1:1.12 (44.0% "buys"), DlyShts 347971 (23.09%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 46.64%

There was a 4K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,503,311 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 23.15% to my 23.09%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 347,971 to 351,971 and the short percentage would be 23.35%.

Yesterday: "The daily short sales appear to be ending the near-term high-volatility behavior and migrating towards a sideways vacillation around its averages, ... ". Today continues that behavior. I also said "This could give rise to a short sideways to slightly up trading pattern, maybe including a small price move back to the low $0.14xx area. ...". Today's VWAP fits.

Something I'll continue to watch is detailed by yesterday's comment: "This is a new and untested assessment based on some patterns I've noticed that frequently correlate to changes in price activity. Volume should continue the decline which just began from extreme levels. ...". Today's volume did continue the decline, giving us two declines in a row - still too early to call it a trend.

If the pattern is true, one option is that the next behavior could be a couple days with a more-or-less flat VWAP with the intra-day highs plateauing, or even dropping a bit, while the lows grind up a bit - i.e convergence typical of a short-term consolidation. In this case the daily short sales would vacillate around the "normal" range, or even the lower part of it. Volume decline continues.

This seems the most likely scenario ATM.

Another outcome could be a slow price weakening, but that appears to be the less frequent behavior when this pattern is observed - daily short sales vacillating "sideways" around the (low-to-)normal area. Volume decline continues.

If daily short sales have started a progressive climb (possible with what's shown so far), but does not "spike", look for VWAP to continue to slowly climb, accompanied by declining volume.

Average trade size was elevated again due to a couple 100K trades, a 66K, four in the 50K range and three in the 40K range. Even with those removed, I think we'd be a bit larger than recent normal aws the number of 10K, 20K and 30K trades were a bit more than nomal.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 Wk cls VWAP $0.1348
08/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920.3.
Vol, in K, for above days: 1507.31.

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -3.3% 1.5% -3.4% 1.5% 0.4% -2.0%
5-day change: -58.9% 19.5% 3.2% 10.8% 0.5% -1.8%
5-day rate of change change: -57.6% 855.4% 144.9% 141.4% -8.4% -4.2%

The changes on my original experimental inflection point calculations shows improvement from the prior two days:
08/15/13 -27.4% -15.8% -2.3% -4.9% -2.7% -3.8% 1-day
08/16/13 -29.9% -16.8% -9.5% -11.2% -6.6% -4.9% 1-day
08/15/13 -75.0% -6.9% -5.8% -0.2% -22.8% -34.3% 5-day
08/16/13 -512.0% -18.9% -24.7% -63.9% -55.5% -20.1% 5-day
08/15/13 -16.6% 100.4% 970.8% 42.0% -1092.8% -118.8% change rate
08/16/13 -26.9% -4427.2% -69.5% -107.5% -294.2% -318.1% change rate

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: 21.2% 22.5% 35.1% 29.0% 29.8% 39.5%
5-day change: 341.0% 67.6% 242.6% 537.6% 111.9% 81.1%
5-day rate of change change: -36.7% 24.6% -12.7% -17.8% -26.7% -24.8%

On my newer version the same is happening:
08/15/13 -53.6% -33.9% -41.8% -32.0% -29.6% -47.3% 1-day
08/16/13 -13.9% -3.1% 11.2% 5.1% 10.0% 16.6% 1-day
08/15/13 -51.6% -282.6% -58.4% -51.0% -46.4% -47.9% 5-day
08/16/13 -91.6% -44.4% -57.5% -82.9% -50.5% -35.2% 5-day
08/15/13 -17.2% -2.6% -5.2% -6.7% -11.1% -10.9% change rate
08/16/13 -31.5% -39.2% -38.5% -42.4% -43.5% -37.3% change rate

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/16/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 239, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 2028694, AvTrSz: 8488
Min. Pr: 0.1310, Max Pr: 0.1400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1348
# Buys, Shares: 94 685120, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1354
# Sells, Shares: 140 1306674, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1344
# Unkn, Shares: 5 36900, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1365
Buy:Sell, 1:1.91 (33.8% "buys"), DlyShts 318700 (15.71%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 24.39%

The daily short sales appear to be ending the near-term high-volatility behavior and migrating towards a sideways vacillation around its averages, which are closely grouped at 19.24%, 22.96%, 22.18% and 20.60% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively. This could give rise to a short sideways to slightly up trading pattern, maybe including a small price move back to the low $0.14xx area. This is a new and untested assessment based on some patterns I've noticed that frequently correlate to changes in price activity. Volume should continue the decline which just began from extreme levels. There's more to it, which I won't belabor here. I'll be interested to see if this plays out and if the action I suspect afterwards will occur.

Average trade size was elevated, due in part to several much larger trades noted in the trading breakdown below. It's very near the upper extreme of some unscientific guidelines I have on the chart based on a visual assessment of a "normal" range. Removing today's four largest trades brings the average trade size to 7,265, still well above the averages and in the upper tier of "mid-range" of "normal".

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
08/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1483, x 85%: $0.1260
08/13: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1477, x 85%: $0.1255
08/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1469, x 85%: $0.1249
08/15: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1457, x 85%: $0.1238
08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889.
Vol, in K, for above days: 600.32, 776.23, 712.34, 2802.7, 2028.7.

With a second high-volume day, I thought it might be useful to again have a trading breakdown by time. Note the period beginning at 09:30 included "buys" of 56.4K and two 20K buys along with "sells" of 25K and two 20K. The period beginning at 13:02 included a "buy" of 70K and "sells" of 100K and 95K. The following breakdown is omitted from the concentrator EOD post.
09:30-09:42: 243517 shares, 12.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1365, 58.1% buys
09:48-10:17: 171619 shares, 08.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1320, 06.3% buys
10:25-10:37: 065000 shares, 03.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1334, 61.5% buys
10:38-11:05: 241483 shares, 11.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1360, 40.6% buys
11:11-11:40: 126400 shares, 06.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1355, 49.1% buys
11:41-12:10: 176883 shares, 08.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1351, 14.1% buys
12:11-12:50: 238500 shares, 11.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1358, 21.0% buys
13:02-13:48: 384100 shares, 18.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1353, 28.5% buys
13:49-14:19: 154000 shares, 07.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1324, 45.5% buys
14:20-14:59: 080745 shares, 03.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1332, 13.9% buys
15:02-15:29: 075800 shares, 03.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1332, 67.0% buys
15:32-15:59: 070647 shares, 03.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1339, 22.6% buys

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -29.9% -16.8% -9.5% -11.2% -6.6% -4.9%
5-day change: -512.0% -18.9% -24.7% -63.9% -55.5% -20.1%
5-day rate of change change: -26.9% -4427.2% -69.5% -107.5% -294.2% -318.1%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: -13.9% -3.1% 11.2% 5.1% 10.0% 16.6%
5-day change: -91.6% -44.4% -57.5% -82.9% -50.5% -35.2%
5-day rate of change change: -31.5% -39.2% -38.5% -42.4% -43.5% -37.3%

On my original experimental metrics the "wee bit of negativity" continues to increase and is not showing much of a reduction in the rate of decrease yet. I attribute this to the simple construct of the original - it's sensitive only to volume and buy:sell ratios.

On my newer version the same is happening but the rate of weakening is reducing, as shown by much better short-term metrics for that. The 5-day change is mixed with three improved and three degraded further. The rate of change for all periods weakened. Overall, I think it's properly showing what we observed today - reducing volume, a slight deterioration in the buy:sell from yesterday, and a small turn to improvement in the VWAP: $0.1410, $0.1402, $0.1451, $0.1404, $0.1309 and $0.1348. Since volume was still, shall we say, "healthy", I think there might be some validity in what the newer calculations show. But we do need to be cautious because of the volatility in volume, daily short sales, buy:sell, etc. That has been seen recently.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 354, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 150000, Vol 2802676, AvTrSz: 7917
Min. Pr: 0.1250, Max Pr: 0.1409, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1309
# Buys, Shares: 113 1180380, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1318
# Sells, Shares: 240 1617296, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1302
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1320
Buy:Sell 1:1.37 (42.1% "buys"), DlyShts 705871 (25.19%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 43.65%

Want to see something scary? Take a look at what things looked like prior to the start of the CC through 10:46 (note max trade size had effect on average trade size and look at the number of buys and sells and buy:sell).
# Trds: 118, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 764810, AvTrSz: 6481
# Buys, Shares: 12 55454, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1356, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1309
# Sells, Shares: 106 709356, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1305
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:12.79 (7.3% "buys")

Fortunately, after that we looked much better (note max trade size had effect on average trade size and look at the number of buys and sells and buy:sell.
# Trds: 236, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 150000, Vol 2037866, AvTrSz: 8635
# Buys, Shares: 101 1124926, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1316, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1309
# Sells, Shares: 134 907940, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1300
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1320
Buy:Sell 1.24:1 (55.2% "buys")

Oddly, to me, the VWAP was the same for all three sets of metrics.

The daily short sales came right back into the "normal", IMO, range today. The volatility in this metric continues. That gives me hope we're not in for a long period of price decline. Of course, with the "financiers" getting all the shares we can't really give any kind of weight to my stuff regarding what may be coming next. "Turn on a dime" comes to mind as possible for price movement, volume, short sales and buy:sell.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
08/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1483, x 85%: $0.1260
08/13: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1477, x 85%: $0.1255
08/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1469, x 85%: $0.1249
08/15: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1457, x 85%: $0.1238

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889.
Vol, in K, for above days: 600.32, 776.23, 712.34, 2802.7.

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -27.4% -15.8% -2.3% -4.9% -2.7% -3.8%
5-day change: -75.0% -6.9% -5.8% -0.2% -22.8% -34.3%
5-day rate of change change: -16.6% 100.4% 970.8% 42.0% -1092.8% -118.8%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: -53.6% -33.9% -41.8% -32.0% -29.6% -47.3%
5-day change: -51.6% -282.6% -58.4% -51.0% -46.4% -47.9%
5-day rate of change change: -17.2% -2.6% -5.2% -6.7% -11.1% -10.9%

Uh, need I mention that there's a wee bit of negativity reflected in my experimental metrics? Nothing to add to that for now.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 113, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 70000, Vol 712343, AvTrSz: 6304
Min. Pr: 0.1329, Max Pr: 0.1450, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1404
# Buys, Shares: 17 158023, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1410
# Sells, Shares: 96 554320, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1403
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.51 (22.2% "buys"), DlyShts 32525 (04.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.87%

Yesterday: "I suspected we'll have a few days now without excessive daily short sale lows, although continued swings in a generally higher trend for the lows should be seen". Whoa there Nellie!

Today's percentage entered "excessive ... lows" and I now see a definite pattern of lower highs and lows. I hope this does not continue as it has always accompanied long down trends in price. My best guess is the recent dominance by the usual suspects is related to this because I believe they may have some short-term long positions they play, are handling shares from their owning broker customers (meaning they are under the market-maker control), and/or have more intra-broker trades. This last seems quite likely as the market-maker(s) spend a lot of time near the top of both sides of the bid/ask queues and we've had a relatively high percentage of trades hitting the bids, bypassing the ask queue.

There was a 10K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 702,343 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 5.97% to my 04.57%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 35,525 to 42,525 and the short percentage would be 05.97%.

I'm still hoping, as mentioned previously, that "they" will be satisfied with a $0.14 VWAP, which gives a next issue price of $0.119. Today's drop from yesterday's $0.1451 to $0.1404 is concerning but may have been just normal pre-reporting jitters by retail investors. The pattern of trading today suggests this unless the "financiers" have changed their strategy. See the trading action breakdown below (omitted from the concentrator) and note the buying strength early and the weakness that appeared around 14:00. The late-day weakness is not a change, but the strength of the early trading, vis-a-vis "buy" percentages is unusual.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
08/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1483, x 85%: $0.1260
08/13: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1477, x 85%: $0.1255
08/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1469, x 85%: $0.1249

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889.
Vol, in K, for above days: 600.32, 776.23, 712.34.

ARCA was present from the open. We gave back all our gains from yesterday. Until the late-day weakness appeared, it was looking like we might hold flat or finish down a small amount on the VWAP, as I commented here.

But the habitual pattern did not disappoint, as can be seen in this trading breakdown by time segments. Note that the last segment's "buys" and VWAP was heavily skewed by one 70K trade at $0.1390, 22% of the segment's volume. Also note the very low volume for the first two hours. The bid stayed fixed and didn't move at all and ARCA stuck their ask at $0.1408 and stayed their until around 13:25 when I saw it at $0.1435. Then the dam burst.

The following breakdown by time is omitted from the concentrator.
09:30-11:37: 027200 shares, 03.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1417, 62.5% buys
13:02-13:26: 061999 shares, 08.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1431, 56.8% buys
13:32-13:54: 032599 shares, 04.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 46.0% buys
14:03-14:59: 114820 shares, 16.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1427, 3.0% buys
15:05-15:30: 157875 shares, 22.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1413, 3.4% buys
15:31-16:00: 317850 shares, 44.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1383, 25.8% buys

Here's a breakdown by price range, which was slightly narrower than yesterday. Note the $0.1400-$0.1424 percentage of volume and "buys".

The following breakdown is omitted from the concentrator.
$0.1329-$0.1340: 046300 shares, 06.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1337, 0.0% buys
$0.1350-$0.1390: 111400 shares, 15.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1377, b:s 2.06:1, 67.3% buys
$0.1400-$0.1424: 455945 shares, 64.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1411, b:s 1:10.59, 8.6% buys
$0.1435-$0.1450: 098698 shares, 13.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1439, b:s 1:1.26, 44.3% buys

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -19.7% -24.1% -12.3% -6.0% -5.7% -3.5%
5-day change: 73.8% -8.7% -45.3% 6.1% -110.7% -5.7%
5-day rate of change change: 21.9% 40.1% 113.2% 2263.4% -91.8% 221.3%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: -25.6% -29.3% -25.1% -13.7% -14.3% -16.8%
5-day change: 48.0% 54.8% 40.1% 73.4% 29.8% 44.0%
5-day rate of change change: 33.9% 136.9% 81.0% 76.9% 59.8% 70.3%

On my original and new inflection point calculations, you can see both have one-day movements decidedly negative, reflecting the volatility I discussed in the comment linked above . The original 5-day change shows a mixed picture but its rate of change over 5 days is still on the positive side. With the 10Q release this evening, I wouldn't put any faith in these numbers because we don't know what sort of sentiment will emerge from the conference call.

The newer version of my experimental calculations are in agreement for the one-day changes. The five-day change and the rate of change are a bit more positive though. The same concerns about the sentiment from the 10Q and the conference call apply.

The developing trend in the newer inflection points I've been noting continued and we still might see some price appreciation develop. Today broke the trend on the one-day change, but with the 5-day change and the rate of change still looking more positive, I can't say the developing trend is broken yet. Even after today's weakening, the 100 and 200-day remain above trend lines and the 50-day is barely below its trend. Yesterday I said "... it can be seen the 50-day is right at the line and, I expect, will be back above it tomorrow, barring a lousy day". Today was a lousy day.

On the newer charts the emerging pattern that would suggest a move up is coming is at risk though. It's not off the table yet as a one-day change doesn't break the trend. The following days will tell the story here.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/13/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 141, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 71400, Vol 776232, AvTrSz: 5505
Min. Pr: 0.1380, Max Pr: 0.1523, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1451
# Buys, Shares: 36 294690, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1470
# Sells, Shares: 104 471542, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1439
# Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1460
Buy:Sell 1:1.60 (38.0%), DlyShts 199158 (25.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 42.24%

As mentioned yesterday, I suspected we'll have a few days now without excessive daily short sale lows, although continued swings in a generally higher trend for the lows should be seen. I won't repeat, but today's short volume was in a range I expected, especially after seeing the early-day action and which market-makers were most active early, beginning with ARCA at the open. The left-coastie rolled out of bed early this morning I guess.

There was a 3K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 773,232 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 25.76% to my 25.66%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 199,158 to 202,158 and the short percentage would be 26.04%.

The average of the 20 lowest VWAPs in 40 days and 85% price continues down. I'm still hoping, as mentioned yesterday, that "they" will be satisfied with a $0.14 VWAP, which gives a next issue price of $0.119. So far they seem to be moving us that way as the low 20-day VWAP continues down from the dip below $0.15 ($0.1492), I noted yesterday.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
08/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1483, x 85%: $0.1260
08/13: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1477, x 85%: $0.1255

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889.
Vol, in K, for above days: 600.32, 776.23.

Today started off decent even though ARCA and the usual suspects were actively jostling for position on the ask. Prior to the appearance of the typical late-day weakness, we had a WVAP up 3.75% from yesterdays $0.1402 to $0.1455. From the $0.1390 close, we were up 4.65%. We still managed to finish with the VWAP up 3.5%. The following breakdown by time is omitted from the concentrator.

09:30-09:59: 086100 shares, 11.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1404, 77.6% buys
10:01-10:28: 045600 shares, 05.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1441, 32.9% buys
10:31-10:55: 030600 shares, 03.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1502, 68.6% buys
11:06-11:38: 004157 shares, 00.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1489, 75.9% buys
12:10-12:57: 039100 shares, 05.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1471, 6.4% buys
13:05-13:29: 016925 shares, 02.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1478, 27.9% buys
13:32-13:49: 079800 shares, 10.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1484, 60.8% buys
14:01-14:27: 011000 shares, 01.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1458, 45.5% buys
14:31-14:58: 065650 shares, 08.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1453, 9.1% buys
15:00-15:28: 052000 shares, 06.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1443, 6.5% buys
15:36-15:45: 268858 shares, 34.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1461, 43.5% buys
15:46-16:00: 076442 shares, 09.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1407, 2.1% buys

Here's a breakdown by price range, narrow though it be. The following breakdown is omitted from the concentrator.

$0.1380-$0.1399: 054700 shares, 07.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1393, b:s 3.21:1, 76.2% buys
$0.1400-$0.1410: 152342 shares, 19.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1405, b:s 1:14.23, 6.6% buys
$0.1440-$0.1450: 161058 shares, 20.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, b:s 1:3.50, 22.2% buys
$0.1451-$0.1465: 162750 shares, 20.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1457, b:s 1:2.73, 25.2% buys
$0.1470-$0.1470: 077000 shares, 09.92% of vol, VWAP $0.1470, b:s , 0.0% buys
$0.1489-$0.1523: 168382 shares, 21.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, b:s 79.18:1, 98.8% buys

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: 35.5% -5.9% 1.6% -2.6% -2.4% -1.2%
5-day change: 116.7% 31.0% 60.1% 28.3% 45.8% 34.4%
5-day rate of change change: 2212.0% 68.3% 82.7% 97.6% 137.9% 83.7%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: 48.5% 14.9% 34.3% 24.2% 25.0% 35.9%
5-day change: 163.0% 75.9% 184.8% 174.9% 355.1% 281.1%
5-day rate of change change: 2091.7% 161.2% 317.4% 824.2% 2790.4% 1528.5%

On my original inflection point calculations, you can see the one-day movement is mixed, with only the 5 and 25-day period showing positive movement. The 5-day change shows a more positive story though. The changes are good but the underlying numbers are all still negative so I view this as "reduced weakening" ATM, rather than "increasing strength". The change over five days and the rate of change are positive and beginning to show some consistency I look for as part of a stronger signal.

I've been noting the possibility that we might have some price appreciation if the trend in the newer inflection points continues. Today again continues the trend. I had mentioned the 100 and 200-day have recovered to be above trend lines and the 50-day was on the way there. On the test charts, it can be seen the 50-day is right at the line and, I expect, will be back above it tomorrow, barring a lousy day.

On the newer charts, especially the bottom one, the pattern that suggests a move up is coming is beginning to emerge. It's not there yet.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/12/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 119, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 57600, Vol 600319, AvTrSz: 5045
Min. Pr: 0.1355, Max Pr: 0.1490, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1402
# Buys, Shares: 45 286069, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1416
# Sells, Shares: 74 314250, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1389
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.10 (47.7% "buys"), DlyShts 174292 (29.03%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 55.46%

Continuing the brief daily short sales tracking, yesterday I ended, in part, with "... However, past behavior suggests that the daily short sales will have drastic swings before the trend becomes clear. Today continues the swings from high to low: 24.89%, 10.45%, 17.60%, 30.66% and 08.62%". Tack on today's 29.03% to keep the vacillation alive and I suspect we'll have a few days now without excessive lows, although continued swings in a generally higher trend for the lows should be seen.

Yesterday: "I'd like to think that Friday's small upturn in VWAP was meaningful, but it was a Friday and through 10:36 (the latest I peeked at bid/ask) ARCA had not appeared. So I don't read much into this small uptick: $0.1680, $0.1551, $0.1435, $0.1384 and $0.1410". The marching band remains in step with today's $0.1402.

The average of the 20 lowest VWAPs in 40 days and 85% price continues down. I'm still hoping, as mentioned yesterday, that "they" will be satisfied with a $0.14 VWAP, which gives a next issue price of $0.119. So far they seem to be moving us that way as the low 20-day VWAP continues down from the dip below $0.15 ($0.1492), I noted yesterday.

Buy:sell hit the best reading since 7/31's 54.3% today, thanks to some early-day aggression on the part of buyers and one large "buy" of 57.6K, as part of a larger buy of 66,666 shares by one of our frequent participants in the concentrators.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
08/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1483, x 85%: $0.1260

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889.
Vol, in K, for above days: 600.32.

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: 7.1% -18.5% -5.4% -1.1% 0.3% -2.0%
5-day change: 34.8% -8.2% -14.7% 6.9% 9.3% -1.5%
5-day rate of change change: 93.9% 12.6% 25.8% 40.2% 39.8% 23.6%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: 13.5% -2.8% 11.6% 10.5% 12.4% 14.2%
5-day change: 44.7% 19.9% 43.2% 48.8% 67.0% 61.1%
5-day rate of change change: 105.6% 58.4% 74.8% 89.8% 96.7% 94.4%

On my original inflection point calculations, only the 5-day is showing a tick up in the one day change. The change over five days and the rate of change are a bit more positive, but not with the consistency I look for as a stronger signal.

Yesterday I mentioned "However, yesterday my newer experimental inflection point calculations stopped dropping and seem to suggest there may be a cessation of the down trend in our near-term future...". Today continues the trend. I had mentioned in an earlier post that the 50, 100 and 200-day calculations had dropped below some trend lines that I hoped would mark a lower bound for those periods. The 100 and 200-day have recovered to be above those lines and the 50-day is on the way there. Moreover, the 5 and 10-day calculations are also moving towards zero, from below, again.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/09/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 112, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 468800, AvTrSz: 4186
Min. Pr: 0.1391, Max Pr: 0.1489, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1410
# Buys, Shares: 20 114800, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1426
# Sells, Shares: 92 354000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1405
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.08 (24.5% "buys"), DlyShts 40400 (8.62%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 11.41%

As noted yesterday regarding the daily short sales, "... Today it's right back where it belongs. I don't expect it to hold though ... However, past behavior suggests that the daily short sales will have drastic swings before the trend becomes clear". Today continues the swings from high to low: 0.24.89%, 10.45%, 17.60%, 30.66% and 08.62%.

I'd like to think that Friday's small upturn in VWAP was meaningful, but it Was a Friday and through 10:36 (the latest I peeked at bid/ask) ARCA had not appeared. So I don't read much into this small uptick: $0.1680, $0.1551, $0.1435, $0.1384 and $0.1410.

The low 20-day VWAP and 85% price continue down. Yesterday I wondered "With a 20-day average $0.14 VWAP, the issue price would be $0.119. Maybe they'll be satisfied with that, leaving a little blood in the bodies scattered about the landscape". So far they seem to be moving us that way as the low 20-day VWAP has now dipped below $0.15, as noted below.

Today we gave back that 3.3 percentage point gain in the buy percentage and another 8.8 percentage points. So it appears the "hit the bid" hammering I've been noting is not over as they apparently continue to want lower prices, fitting my scenario of get as many shares as possible as cheaply as possible, without driving all buyers off, hopefully.

However, yesterday my newer experimental inflection point calculations stopped dropping and seem to suggest there may be a cessation of the down trend in our near-term future. See numbers below and the charts in the instablog.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
08/06: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1520, x 85%: $0.1292
08/07: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1511, x 85%: $0.1285
08/08: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1501, x 85%: $0.1276
08/09: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1492, x 85%: $0.1268

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731.
Vol, in K, for above days: 425.7, 1,691.8, 689.7, 613.2, 468.8K.

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -4.2% -14.4% -5.6% -1.9% -0.8% -2.8%
5-day change: 5.0% -15.0% 9.2% 3.1% 2.3% -9.5%
5-day rate of change change: 23.3% 3.3% 25.0% 17.1% 13.8% -13.4%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: 9.9% 11.2% 18.7% 17.4% 18.2% 21.3%
5-day change: 19.5% 15.6% 35.0% 33.7% 41.0% 38.0%
5-day rate of change change: 21.9% 11.3% 23.9% 21.4% 21.5% 17.5%

As with yesterday, everything is going south on my original experimental inflection point calculations, , as easily seen on the charts. The numbers don't add much information when the visuals are so clearly aligned.

On the the newer version, I said yesterday, in part, "Those periods [50, 100 and 200-day] have slowed their descent rate. But it's only one day so far. I expect tomorrow may show all three flat or even curling up a bit. The three short-term periods have the same activity going on. The five and twenty-five day have gone very near flat already". Today matches that possibility - check the numbers and the charts in the instablog. Let's see if a trend now develops or if we just ha an aberration.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 130, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 613185, AvTrSz: 4717
Min. Pr: 0.1350, Max Pr: 0.1415, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1384
# Buys, Shares: 32 222890, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1393
# Sells, Shares: 97 385295, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1379
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1375
Buy:Sell 1:1.73 (36.3% "buys"), DlyShts 188020 (30.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 48.80%

As noted yesterday, "... the behavior seen in the recent past after a spike: big drop down and start to crawl back towards "normal"". Today it's right back where it belongs. I don't expect it to hold though - the "financiers" should be in the market and our "usual suspects" should be active. When we've seen them active in the past, we had very low short percentages along with a down-trend in share price. If daily short sales stays in the "normal" range (actually above the four averages ATM of 25.77%, 22.67%, 24.37% and 19.81% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively) for a while we may not see a strong trend of depreciation in price. Since all but the 50-day are in a slight up trend, there's a decent chance of this. However, past behavior suggests that the daily short sales will have drastic swings before the trend becomes clear.

ARCA was on the field today, starting around 10:15.

Yesterday I said, in part, " With the day's low and VWAP so close together so quickly, I'm guessing the next penny will go by quickly, sans some catalytic news". VWAP is headed in that direction (yesterday was $0.1435) with a drop of -3.57% today, but the buy:sell is a bit better than I would have expected. Maybe the drop won't be as sharp as I thought.

It may be that the strategy is just get some low VWAPs in place to maintain the 85% price at a low level without crushing buyer enthusiasm (Huh?). This would dictate a slower and shallower dip than my "Vulture Financier Banzai" scenario would suggest. We'll just have to see how it plays out. With a 20-day average $0.14 VWAP, the issue price would be $0.119. Maybe they'll be satisfied with that, leaving a little blood in the bodies scattered about the landscape.

Yesterday I said "But today, at least, I think the price action supported my thoughts that they want to hammer price to acquire shares more cheaply for some while longer yet. Did anybody see signs of support I didn't see? I was pleasantly surprised that the buy:sell came in at a reasonable ratio. That was accompanied by an average trade size that is quite reasonable too". See above paragraph. With buy percentage up 3.3 percentage points today, maybe they don't or maybe they are doing the death by a thousand cuts thing. With the again-smaller average trade size, slight buy percentage improvement and slowly reducing volume, I think they at least took a break from hammering.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
08/06: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1520, x 85%: $0.1292
08/07: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1511, x 85%: $0.1285
08/08: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1501, x 85%: $0.1276

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731.
Vol, in K, for above days: 425.7, 1,691.8, 689.7, 613.2.

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -6.6%, -27.1%, -1.4%, -5.8%, -0.7%, -0.6%
5-day change: 6.8%, -40.1%, -56.7%, -13.2%, 3.5%, -4.2%
5-day rate of change change: 28.7%, -1.3% -17.0%, 5.6%, 0.8%, 0.1%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: -3.0%, -9.4%, -2.0%, -4.1%, -0.7%, -0.5%
5-day change: 3.4%, -23.4%, -23.7%, -16.0%, -15.1%, -16.2%
5-day rate of change change: -1.6%, -59.9%, -83.2%, -108.2%, -162.8%, -190.7%

As with yesterday, everything is going south on my original experimental inflection point calculations, , as easily seen on the charts. The numbers don't add much information when the visuals are so clearly aligned.

On the the newer version, I said yesterday, in part, "The only additional thought is that the longer-term calculations, 50, 100 and 200-day periods, broke below the trend lines that I had hoped may act as a lower bound, thereby suggesting some appreciation on the way. ...". Those periods have slowed their descent rate. But it's only one day so far. I expect tomorrow may show all three flat or even curling up a bit. The three short-term periods have the same activity going on. The five and twenty-five day have gone very near flat already.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/07/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 120, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 35700, Vol 689668, AvTrSz: 5747
Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1510, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1435
# Buys, Shares: 38 229373, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1448
# Sells, Shares: 82 460295, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1428
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.01 (33.3% "buys"), DlyShts 121358 (17.60%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.37%

Today's daily shorts continue the behavior seen in the recent past after a spike: big drop down and start to crawl back towards "normal".

ARCA was on the field today. Yesterday I said "This leaves me thinking that the $0.1318 VWAP of 7/15 will be re-visited, and crushed, quite quickly unless some big news inspiring bullish sentiment appears soon or the "financiers" change their mind. One thing is sure - they won't run out of shares quickly". With the day's low and VWAP so close together so quickly,, I'm guessing the next penny will go by quickly, sans so catalytic news.

What's the odds the Q2 release before market open 8/15 or the CC at 11:00 EDT will contain that catalyst?

Yesterday I said "In spite of contrary thoughts, I'm still not seeing any strong evidence of price support from the "financiers". If they were going to support price, today would've been a good time to start. But today, at least, I think the price action supported my thoughts that they want to hammer price to acquire shares more cheaply for some while longer yet".

Did anybody see signs of support I didn't see? I was pleasantly surprised that the buy:sell came in at a reasonable ratio. That was accompanied by an average trade size that is quite reasonable too.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
08/06: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1520, x 85%: $0.1292
08/07: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1511, x 85%: $0.1285

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731.
Vol, in K, for above days: 425.7, 1,691.8, 689.7.

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -27.8%, -51.1%, -6.3%, , -8.6%, -0.9%, -3.2%
5-day change: -16.0%, -45.4%, -297.3%, , -39.1%, -33.4%, -67.5%
5-day rate of change change: -6.1%, -4.5%, -38.6%, , -6.1%, -18.7%, -179.5%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: -35.5%, -58.3%, -30.7%, , -28.6%, -19.8%, -28.8%
5-day change: -29.0%, -71.0%, -115.2%, , -78.8%, -93.0%, -96.6%
5-day rate of change change: -37.6%, -96.8%, -315.9%, , -1246.0%, -395.7%, -250.0%

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, everything is going south, as easily seen on the charts - the numbers above are really superfluous when the graphical presentation is so clear.

On the the newer version, same comment. The only additional thought is that the longer-term calculations, 50, 100 and 200-day periods, broke below the trend lines that I had hoped my act as a lower bound, thereby suggesting some appreciation on the way. That was before we had any inkling as to if the behavior would be the same or similar in the second round of shares. Now we know what to expect until some big news gives us a helping hand. My question then will be how many shares added and who has them and how anxious will they be to dump and take profits.

ATM I'm thinking the nearer-term upside will be a lot less than we might have envisioned before the financing round.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/06/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 237, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 153905, Vol 1691806, AvTrSz: 7138
Min. Pr: 0.1405, Max Pr: 0.1680, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1551
# Buys, Shares: 49 527391, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1592
# Sells, Shares: 188 1164415, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1532
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.21 (31.2% "buys"), DlyShts 176804 (10.45%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 15.18%

Today's shorts ended up about where I expected because we know the NBU (New Big Uglies) have fresh hot shares in the mitts and the usual suspects dominated the top of the bid and ask all day long. This fits well with my thoughts that the NBUs have shares held at multiple accounts spread around at different brokers and/or trading houses that offer market-making, such as ATDF, CDEL, NITE, BTIG (not as frequent as the others) and CSTI (some). Since the shares are not in certificate form, it's logical to think that they are immediately transferred to the control of the brokers and/or trading houses upon issuance. This would mean, especially when combined with the likelihood of many inter and intra-broker trades, that no short sales would be flagged for these shares.

This matches the trend for both daily short sales and price shortly after the first issue round in early June. Take a look at my charts to see how price and daily short sales trended after the start of June.

I'd summarize today as "A retreat from a brief fling with sanity" after yesterday's "return to normalcy".

Yesterday I said "Tomorrow we'll want to see if a floor is again established, at what price, and which market-maker performs the function for the "financiers" as they continue to flip a quick profit from the shares issued as part of the financing deal.

Well, it looked like PERT with 275K bid @ $0.16 @ 11:22 might offer support, but it didn't last long and by 11:32 we saw our fourth trade of the day below $0.16 (the prior three @ 11:07 totaled 7.1K at $0.1550). Going forward from 11:32, sub-$0.16 trades became more and more infrequent and at 12:42:17 we waved bye-bye to our last trade above $0.15xx (2K @ $0.16) for the day.

At 15:11 we got our first sub-$0.15 trade and from there to the end of the day we traded 106,800 shares at a VWAP of $0.1462.

Yesterday I said "Given our history, this obviously suggests we will now see price weakening. We could plateau, but I'm loathe bet on it given the lower "floor" established today and the changes in my experimental inflection point calculations and the ominous "financiers" looming everywhere I look and, and, and ...".

I really wouldn't mind sacrificing my ego for the cause here - why couldn't we go up instead?!

ARCA was not on the field today. In spite of that, we got to the sub-$0.15 price range much more quickly with this round of shares than with the first round. This leaves me thinking that the $0.1318 VWAP of 7/15 will be re-visited, and crushed, quite quickly unless some big news inspiring bullish sentiment appears soon or the "financiers" change their mind. One thing is sure - they won't run out of shares quickly.

In spite of contrary thoughts, I'm still not seeing any strong evidence of price support from the "financiers". If they were going to support price, today would've been a good time to start. But today, at least, I think the price action supported my thoughts that they want to hammer price to acquire shares more cheaply for some while longer yet.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
08/06: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1520, x 85%: $0.1292

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731.
Vol, in K, for above days: 425.7, 1,691.8

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -132.9%, -1610.3%, -33.6%, -13.1%, -6.8%, -7.1%
5-day change: 62.1%, 487.8%, -136.7%, -71.5%, -651.5%, -268.2%
5-day rate of change change: -30.1%, -18.6%, -42.3%, -16.2%, -97.7%, -307.3%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: -158.5%, -563.3%, -91.5%, -52.0%, -37.7%, -58.5%
5-day change: -62.2%, -181.4%, -616.3%, -102.6%, -181.9%, -142.9%
5-day rate of change change: -3.8%, 22.6%, 28.4%, 78.0%, 689.6%, 144.2%

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, not much to say except they reflect what they have been suggesting and we can see - the 5 and 10-day calculations both below zero, removing any real suggestion of near-term appreciation.

Ditto for the newer version.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/05/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 93, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 21000, Vol 425674, AvTrSz: 4577
Min. Pr: 0.1650, Max Pr: 0.1711, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1680
# Buys, Shares: 36 143044, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1684
# Sells, Shares: 53 270930, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1678
# Unkn, Shares: 4 11700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1674
Buy:Sell 1:1.89 (33.6% "buys"), DlyShts 105969 (24.89%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.11%

There was a 5K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 420,674 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 25.19% to my 24.89%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 105,969 to 110,969 and the short percentage would be 26.07%.

MAXM was back to their normal $0.0001 bid today, but "Nor worries mate"! PERT stepped in at 12:36 with a "floor" bid of $0.167 x 261.6K. As with MAXM, they demonstrated no serious intention of buying as no bid from PERT higher was seen and no movement whatsoever was seen. As with Friday's strategy, the usual suspects, plus VERT briefly, had to but bids above that to have a chance to get any shares. Even though the "hitting the bid" was not as dramatic today (only 63.6%, well below Friday's 84.7%), those who wanted shares around this price were rewarded.

Tomorrow we'll want to see if a floor is again established, at what price, and which market-maker performs the function for the "financiers" as they continue to flip a quick profit from the shares issued as part of the financing deal.

I'd summarize today as "return to normalcy". Daily shorts sales moved into a normal range, buy:sell is in a normal range, long-term volume is normal (slightly below the 100-day average of ~459K) and below short-term normal (10, 25 and 50-day averages in thousands are 746, 663 and 618), and average trade size is to the low side of (the new?) normal.

Given our history, this obviously suggests we will now see price weakening. We could plateau, but I'm loathe bet on it given the lower "floor" established today and the changes in my experimental inflection point calculations and the ominous "financiers" looming everywhere I look and, and, and ...

ARCA was on the field today and participated by displaying little patience, but also did not do any large-volume selling. They didn't hang-in or hang-around for long today.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731.
Vol, in K, for above days: 425.7

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -675.2%, -138.0%, -0.4%, -4.2%, -0.6%, -2.1%
5-day change: 282.6%, -53.1%, -59.7%, -373.2%, -132.0%, -199.4%
5-day rate of change change: 146.9%, -53.0%, -1220.4%, -116.1%, -546.3%,-72.3%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: -5499.4%, -160.9%, -65.1%, -44.0%, -27.6%, -59.7%
5-day change: -97.8%, -93.1%, -108.7%, -171.9%, -132.5%, -138.3%
5-day rate of change change: -344.8%, -210.1%, -138.5%, -130.3%, -97.8%, -88.9%

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, not much to say except they reflect what they have been suggesting and we can see - the 5 and 10-day calculations both below zero, removing any real suggestion of near-term appreciation.

Ditto for the newer version.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/02/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 63, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 15400, Vol 263290, AvTrSz: 4179
Min. Pr: 0.1700, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1733
# Buys, Shares: 9 40200, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1756
# Sells, Shares: 54 223090, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1729
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:5.55 (15.3% "buys"), DlyShts 33200 (12.61%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.88%

Yesterday I said, in part, "But I think we might be in for a short, at least, period of plateauing". Today seems to the start of it ... if we manage to hold in this area.

Today's daily short sales seem to reflect dominance by ATDF, CDEL and NITE mostly. I think this is the case because in the past when we had very low daily short sales these were the most aggressive market-makers on the bids and asks. ARCA was not on the field today.

Thinking of the rise in the semi-monthly short interest reports, early on I was suspicious of only one of the semi-monthly short interest reports because two of the first three could be just an effect of high daily market-maker normal short sales in the three or four days prior to the reporting date. I'm now of the opinion that was not the case and we have seen aggressive shorting by the PIPErs, as John Petersen has suggested.

Looking at today's buy:sell you can see that hitting the bid was the game of the day, regardless of presented asks. The bid was hit on 87.39% of the volume and 85.7% of trades while the short sales numbers were extremely low. There were no really large trades to cause any of this. In normal times this should result in a higher volume and percentage of short sales.

As indicated by the combination of high "sells" (volume and percentage) and low short sales (volume and percentage), someone with a long position was dumping. It's most likely folks selling through their broker-owned market-maker(s) because if the shares were not under market-maker control they would have to be flagged short sales, by rule, unless the trades were inter or intra-broker trades. The sizes of the trades, and their average, suggests these two latter types of trades weren't the case.

In spite of that, VWAP held up quite well, dropping only marginally from yesterday's $0.1747. That's another aberration! If somebody at MAXM hadn't been on the bid side and holding steady all day, the VWAP would probably have been much lower today. That bid forced the "usual suspects" to bid above, supporting share price regardless of the heavy selling pressure, if they wanted shares.

All this leaves me with a couple important questions: who's selling, and why, and who's buying, and why.

As consideration for those with no interest, a somewhat lengthy discussion of this has been omitted here and placed into the "header" of my instablog.

Look for "SNIPPETS FROM MY 8/2/2013 EOD COMMENTARY & ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS. I watched Mel Gibson's "Conspiracy Theory" this weekend".

Briefly, I suspect the "financiers" are doing their thing and it may support John's thoughts about short-term price depression and longer-term price support. That discussion wraps up with (referring to MAXM's static bid and what the "financiers" might be doing) "I can't say any of this is what is happening, but several are plausible scenarios that could account for today's 87.39% of trade volume and 85.7% of the trades hitting the bids while the short sales numbers were extremely low. There were no really large trades to cause this either".

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
07/29: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
07/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
07/31: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
08/01: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041.
Vol, in K, for above days: 921.83, 480.80, 499.31, 566, 263.29

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -175.2%, 23.4%, -15.6%, -3.9%, -1.2%, -1.8%
5-day change: 237.3%, -52.3%, -34.5%, -204.0%, -36.3%, 51.1%
5-day rate of change change: 36.6%, -365.4%, -91.9%, -2146.7%, -77.6%, 14.0%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: -95.9%, -35.5%, -108.7%, -26.8%, -14.3%, -36.5%
5-day change: -39.5%, 0.1%, -6.8%, 24.9%, 30.4%, 46.2%
5-day rate of change change: 90.1%, 18.2%, 2.3%, 37.8%, 50.1%, 62.1%

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, the 10-day period remains above zero again but is weakening, as you might have suspected from the five-day change and its rate of change. The 5-day reading is back below zero and it and all other periods are weakening, as suggested all those negative numbers.

The newer version, incorporating other factors, has the 5 and 10-day periods still barely positive but weakening. From the readings above you can see that the newer version is a delivering less negative set of changes than the original calculations. I believe, for the moment, this chart's indication is for a flattening in our price action. We'll have to wait for it to develop more and see.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

08/01/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 75, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 95000, Vol 566080, AvTrSz: 7548
Min. Pr: 0.1700, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1747
# Buys, Shares: 18 241130, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1771
# Sells, Shares: 56 319950, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1729
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1710
Buy:Sell 1:1.33 (42.6% "buys"), DlyShts 238330 (42.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 74.49%

There was a 14.9K AH trade at $0.1750. FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include out-of-hours trades. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 551,180 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 43.24% to 42.10%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 238,330 to 253,230 and the short percentage would be 44.73%.

Dly Sht % of 'sells' has been creeping up. It's not anywhere the levels seen when we knew the "Big Uglies" were heavily selling, but it is moving up and may bear watching. Right now, on average, I'm looking at that metric as being in a "normal" range.

Prior to 11:17 the buy:sell was skewed to a nice 83.9% "buys" by a 95K trade that was a buy at $0.18. Without that trade we had a still nice 60.4% "buys" reading with 11 trades being "buys" and 8 being sells. At 11:17 the sellers came hard, resulting in a "buys" percentage of only 26.3% for the rest of the day. That include an 80K buy at $0.1750. Sans that trade, the buy percentage drops to 8.28%! The total sells from 11:17 through the end of the day were 299,250, about 53% of the day's volume.

Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
07/29: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
07/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
07/31: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
08/01: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295

Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041.
Vol, in K, for above days: 921.83, 480.80, 499.31, 566.

Let's hope the VWAP remains "high" as there's a chance the 85% price may increase if we can stay above $0.16 for a while.

With price and volume holding up well, maybe they will let it run a bit. Volume in thousands:
$0.1808, 477.76
$0.1622, 1141.07
$0.1555, 638.00
$0.1709, 921.83
$0.1690, 480.80
$0.1714, 499.31
$0.1747, 566.08

On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1-day change: -72.1%, 346.5%, 18.0%, -3.0%, -1.2%,-0.1%
5-day change: -88.7%, -41.8%, 1.5%, -70.6%, 4.9%, -28.3%
5-day rate of change change: -260.0%, -124.1%, -14.4%, -95.2%, 0.0%, -4.9%

On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1-day change: -35.6%, 193.4%, 56.8%, 18.6%, 14.6%, 31.5%
5-day change: 62.3%, 653.3%, 604.6%, 204.1%, 209.3%, 179.4%
5-day rate of change change: 141.4%, 250.4%, 603.7%, 230.7%, 223.4%, 223.0%

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, the 10-day period has moved back above zero again, as you might have suspected from the one-day change of 346.5%. The 5 and 10-day readings are at 72.47 and 82.45 but are weakening, as suggested by the change over five days and the rate of change deterioration.

The newer version, incorporating other factors, is presenting a less negative overall picture with the 5 and 10-day periods still positive at 35.73, slightly weaker, and 76.72, noticeably stronger. From the readings above you can see that the newer version, having only one negative number, is telling a much more positive story than the original calculations. I believe on this chart the indication is not just reduced weakening, but strengthening (although flattening a bit from yesterday's readings) for the moment, because short, medium and long-term periods are all improving. But I think we might be in for a short, at least, period of plateauing.

The buy:sell continues to fluctuate in the normal range and the averages, all in normal ranges, continue to improve.

Prior to the late-day weakening, which began at 14:10, we had an insane 4.5:1. Normally this can not hold and at 14:10 ATDF, ARCA and NITE took turns on lowering the ask from the $0.174x range down to $0.17. In less than twenty minutes the buyers saw the change and started lowering the bids from $0.1701/2 to as low as $0.169. Not a big change you say? Well, big in relation to what may have happened if the sellers had more patience.

Average trade sizes are still in an up trend, helped today by two larger than normal trades of 95K and 90K. These were a noticeable percentage of the day's volume.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

Additional disclosure: I am very experimental, still learning TA and am not very conservative in my trading. But I am conservative regarding my confidence in what I'm learning and my attempts to share with others what I think I see coming. Your own DD is mandatory.