For starters this is not a political post (despite the title).
This is a factual post.
For kortsessions followers this will not be new news, but I think a refresher may be in order. The reasons are two-fold: the media is beginning to chirp about the market being affected by the president's deepening legal woes as a negative for stocks and his statement above that ties market success or failure to the president remaining in office ...if I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash. He went on to add, "Everybody would be very poor."
Facts(i.e. The Truth-Opinion in italics)
- Fact #1 -- The secular bull market that we are now enjoying began early March 2009 and started from a low of 666 on the S&P 500. This was about 1.5 months into the first term of the Obama administration.At that time the unemployment rate stood at 10%.On November 1, 2016 (before the election of president TRUMP) the S&P 500 stood at 2128, a triple off the lows. The unemployment rate stood at 5%. At current writing unemployment hit a low of 3.8% in May of this year and as of July stood at 3.9%. So, unemployment has improved since the election but it had already improved dramatically in the previous 8 years.
- Fact #2 -- Since November of 2016 the S&P 500 has increased at its high (2868) another 740 points, up another 34%. There were two primary reasons for this: A total barrage of executive orders mandating the removal of costly, business-stifeling regulations coupled with a huge, very-stimulative business and individual tax cut.The cost of these tax changes is estimated to be a 1 trillion dollar increase in the federal deficit.
- Fact #3 -- If president Trump were to leave office tomorrow, president Pence would continue to support all of the current adminitstration's policies.My sense, too, is that trade policy/ trade war issues would magically go away.
- Fact #4 It has been two years since our last major market correction. A potential Trump departure could trigger one. This would not be the end the world or the death of the current administration's economic policy. They are a Trump era distraction/deflection.
"If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash, ... Everybody would be very poor."
GIVE ME A BREAK!
What's your take?
The information presented in kortsessions.com represents my own opinions and does not contain recommendations for any particular investment strategies or securities. I may, from time to time, mention certain securities for illustrative purpose, names where I personally hold positions. These are not meant to be construed as recommendations to BUY or SELL. All investments and strategies should be undertaken only after careful consideration of suitability based on the risks, tolerance for risk and personal financial situation.