After a tumultuous and hair-raising first quarter, the benchmarks DOW and SPX indexes ended their round trip close to where it started last December while the market was going nowhere fast.
During that time Fed-talk had it that they would have to raise rates four times this year and that gave the market the jitters and the rally stalled. But in a major policy speech the Fed-Chair Janet Yellen nixed that idea, and the market was off to the races.
Add to this an upbeat U.S. jobs report and U.S. manufacturing activity that expanded last March for the first time in a year, and the market strategists out there are taking a bullish tack to the market.
The chartwatchers among those strategists are making a point that this rally has legs because the benchmark DOW and S&P 500 indexes crossed their 200 day moving averages on the upside last March, which is considered to be quite a bullish omen for the market.
But here a word of caution. These crossovers don't mean very much if not supported by an appropriate Moving-Average lines configuration. These configurations show if a rally has become top-heavy and the market is vulnerable to keeling over, or a selling squall has hit bottom and the market is aiming for a snap-back rally. But that lies in the eyes and judgment of the beholder.
Check the daily DOW chart [INDU] and note the extremely bullish Moving-Average lines configuration with this large gap between the red MA line above the green line. This is always a sign that the market is overdoing it on the upside.
Meanwhile this Yellen rally pushed the DOW back from where it took that steep nosedive last December, without a real gain in between.
Most interesting though, with all that upside activity where is the upside momentum? Note that the MACD momentum bars are out cold on top of the demarcation line. This implies that this so-called rally was driven by nothing more but the fumes of an empty gas tank and ditto for the S&P 500 index.
The bull in this game [SPXL] has been charging to the upside in intermediate spurts from its low last February. Still, so far he has been unable to reach, leave alone breach, the upper levels established last December. But he has formed an extremely overbought bullish gap between the red MA line above the green which has become a bubble that is about to deflate, if not burst.
Also note the MACD momentum bars have flatlined against the demarcation line, and that implies the bull is stampeding with his last snort.
But check the bear-chart [SPXS] which is not all that hot either. This index keeps digging itself into a deeper hole, the MA lines configuration is extremely bearish for the bear and the RSI strength indicator has hit the bottom of its trading channel.
But just like the upside momentum for the bull just isn't there, the upside momentum bars for the bear are just hugging the neutral demarcation line.
So the implication for all of this is that when the market comes down it won't be because the bear is so strong, but that the bull is exhausted and needs a breather before charging again to higher highs.
The NASDAQ market [NAS] shows the same overbought and topheavy configurations as do other major indexes and carries the same downside vulnerability.
Two of NASDAQ's main components, technology [IGM] and semis [SOX] show the same downside vulnerability like the main index. Rallying too fast too far caused these large overbought gaps between the red MA lines above the greens.
At the same time, supportive upside momentum for these moves are non-existent as the respective MACD momentum bars are out cold along the demarcation line.
The biotech sector [BTK] appears to be consolidating and set to break out to the upside. The long-time bearish MA lines configuration seems to be turning bullish with the red MA line inching above the green. The RSI strength indicator has moved into the bullish side of its trading channel and the MACD momentum bars are rising into the bullish side of the demarcation line.
The small-cap [SML] and mid-cap [MID] sectors of the market are topping out and are in need of better traction to the upside. Both indexes are hitting last December's ceiling, while the respective MA lines configurations show two large overbought gaps between the red MA lines above the greens.
Although the RSI strength indicators are solid in their respective bullish territories, the MACD momentum bars remain neutral on top of the demarcation lines and not supportive of any trend, bullish or bearish.
The commodity market [GTX] keeps trying hard to find some upside traction but has a tough time doing so. Again, this index shot up from its bottom-low too far too fast which has caused a wide overbought gap to form between the red MA line above the green. Also, with the RSI strength indicator and MACD momentum bars both in their respective bearish territories the commodity market has no support, and so this index is sliding south.
The yellow metal [GOLD] shot up too fast, lost its balance and now pays the price. The RSI strength indicator is about to slip into its bearish territory while the MA lines configuration shows a large overbought gap between the red MA line above the green.
That the MACD momentum bars did not manage to get on top of the demarcation line robbed gold of the momentum needed to remain geared to the upside. But with gold consolidating while pulling back could be part of a base-building process from which to rally again.
Just like gold, oil [WTIC] shot up too far too fast and now is suffering a hangover. The MA lines configuration formed a huge overbought gap between the red MA line above the green. This shows that oil has become top-heavy and is ready for a pullback.
Also, this oil rally has lost its support from the RSI strength indicator and MACD momentum bars both of which have slipped into their respective bearish territories.
But if the MA lines configuration shrinks the gap between the red MA line above the green, there will be a chance for oil to rally again.
All in all, for now this market is at a tipping point with the weight to the downside.
Still, should the market come tipping your way, here are some favored ETFs to keep on tap.
Industrials, Discretionary, Technology, Financials, Healthcare, Materials;
Leveraged Bull ETFs:
Financials 3x (NYSEARCA:FINU) Financials 2x (NYSEARCA:UYG), Industrials 2x (NYSEARCA:UXI), DOW 2x (NYSEARCA:DDM), Large-Caps 2x (NYSEARCA:FLGE), S&P 500, 3x (NYSEARCA:SPXL), Retail 2x (NYSEARCA:RETL), Mid-Caps 2x (NYSEARCA:MDLL), Mid-Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:MIDU), Small-Caps 2x (NYSEARCA:SMLL), Technology 3x (NYSEARCA:TECL);
Non-Leveraged Long ETFs:
Russell 1000 (NYSEARCA:IWF), Russell 1000 (NYSEARCA:IWD), Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWO), Mid-Caps (NYSEARCA:IWS), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:IVW), NASDAQ (QID), Insiders (NYSEARCA:KNOW), Small-Caps (NYSE:RZV), High-Dividend (NYSEARCA:HDV);
Leveraged Bear ETFs:
S&P 500, 2x (NYSEARCA:SDS), Financials 3x (NYSEARCA:FAZ), NASDAQ 2x , Small-Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:TZA), DOW 2x (NYSE:DXD), Russell 2000, 2x (NYSEARCA:TWM), Base-Metals 2x (NYSEARCA:BOM), Commodity 2x (NYSEARCA:DEE), Oil 2x (NYSEARCA:DTO), Gold 2x (NYSEARCA:DZZ), Industrials 2x , Mid-Caps 2x (NYSEARCA:MVV), Emerging Markets 2x (EED), Semis 2x (NYSEARCA:USD),
Non-Leveraged Short ETFs:
Active Bear (NYSEARCA:HDGE), Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:RWM), Emerging Markets (NYSEARCA:EUM), Financials (SEF), Mid-Caps (NYSE:MYY), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SH), DOW (NYSE:DOG), NASDAQ (NYSEARCA:PSQ), Small-Caps (NYSEARCA:SBB);
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