Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

UGA Will Jump If War By Nov 22

|About: The United States Gasoline ETF, LP (UGA)

"We have made it crystal clear - in all possible forums, that Israel will not stand by and watch Iran develop weaponry that will put us, the entire Middle East and eventually the world, under an Iranian umbrella of terror," Danny Danon, Israel's deputy defense minister told USA TODAY.

The time limit for action was set at no more than 4 weeks. The ultimatum was set Oct 25th. Four weeks from the ultimatum is Nov 22nd, "The clear red line."

This announcement seems like the last warning is a sequence of statements including Prime Minister Netanyahu UN Speech of Sept 27, 2012. This has been emphasized by others.

The Israelis remember two lessons:

  • In the 6 Day War preemptive strikes decimated a growing risk.
  • In the Yom Kipper War the threats were known, understood and discounted. The surprise attack nearly ended their national existence.

Consequences of an Israeli-Iranian war are not currently factored into prices in the oil markets. (NYSEARCA:UGA) and (RBOB) have not reflected the supply disruptions that will certainly occur.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.