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On NWBO, CLDX, And Other Past Picks

|Includes: ARGS, CLBS, CLDX, CMRX, CPXX, GILD, MSFT, Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc. (NWBO), RUSL, SRPT

I appreciate this site, and browse articles frequently. However, I have been horrible at keeping my views current under my own name. For whatever reason I opted to express those views for the most part via my Pyrrhonian handle on Investorshub, or my jmlogan72 handle on investorvillage.

There you can find my thoughts going back on NWBO, CLDX, CLBS (formerly NBS), oil stocks, etc., as well as some other stock tickers. Even though I've almost exclusively posted on those two NWBO boards. For some reason the interactions I had with investors of that stock got personal for me. I couldn't tolerate the complete intolerance they had towards any opposing viewpoint, and got a little over-zealous defending myself and promoting a contrarian voice. When I first began expressing concern over NWBO, even though I had been a strong supporter for a while, I was accused of ridiculous things. Being in league with "nefarious" short selling groups "hell bent on driving a cancer curing company out of business," etc. I was even accused of misleading cancer patients, by posting on a stock investment forum! I found all of that disturbing and at times disgusting and so retaliated too much (hence my 4,000 posts on Ihub).

Maybe all of that writing caused me to feel as though I was already saying so much about my "picks" that I didn't need to update followers here. So, I apologize if my previous analysis on NWBO or CLDX made anyone hold those stocks too long. I had changed my mind a while ago, and even advocated shorting both stocks.

CLDX I decided to let go in the low $20s. Somewhere in my late Nov 2014 Ihub posts you can find that announcement. I also recommended shorting it after they were denied AA. Rindo suddenly became much more speculative.

I continued to like CLBS all the way until the suspended development of CLBS-20. A clear loss. I was in with about 2% of my NPV. I also picked another flop in CMRX, which was decimated after reporting negative topline data.

However, I was fortunate to have more good calls than bad in ARGS (in low $2s, out $12), YANG (in $51, out $100, pre-split), short LNKD ($220s - $106), short GILD ($110 - $85), CLDX (in mid $13s, out $21), SRPT (in low $12s, out $32), RUSL (in low $10s, bought more down to $6s, averaged in low $8s, pre-split; out $62, which is $15-ish pre spit), CPXX ($7s - $30/ BO--extremely easy) etc. I did well on my NWBO trades ($4.70 - $9s, short average $10.50 - $5, short again from $1.66 - $0.96), though unfortunately I didn't let anyone around here know of that real-time.

All of these are on record on ihub and ivil, and not after the fact. I made these calls as they happened. And they're the only trades I've made in the last two years, including my CLBS and CMRX flops.

Part of me feels though that maintaining a public stock trading profile is a net I don't want to entangle myself in. I think good biotech investing is about finding high EV opportunities like CYTR and showing a long term profit, not "good" or "bad" calls on any one, two or five biotechs. It's all about long term expected value and having a theoretical advantage over the course of many investments show up in a net positive return that beats market benchmarks. That's a success. Not how you call it on a few tickers. Many retail investors unfortunately seem too myopic in this regard.

But then there are others out there that make the process worth it, those not so steeped in comfirmation bias, who can debate and disagree and turn over an issue inside and out without ever having to fall back on ad hominem. They understand and live by quid pro quo. And they are what makes sites like SA great.

Anyway I thought I should at least provide a little explanation for my going quiet. Still very much an ACHN fan. See great things coming down the pike there in HCV, and a CFD program much better than Genentech's developing, IMHO. But I'll save that for another day.