These instablog updates will usually be brief, just to keep track of any real-time trades made during the same day, or any significant updates to stocks in the portfolios.
SAS Fund Trade #1:
- Closed entire AMRN short @ $3.05/share, profit of $0.14/share or 4.4% profit.
- Keeping 5.22% in cash, making total cash position of fund now 25.22%.
Rationale: There just appears to be too much long interest to make remaining short AMRN viable at this time, despite the good fortune of the recent raise.
Going Forward: Planning to re-short AMRN when the technicals look better, but definitely before DMC recommendation from 1st interim analysis (Oct-ish). This is almost an absolute certain "continue" rec, imo, and I believe the sentiment surrounding AMRN will suffer because of it, and thus the stock will encounter a sell off. I think that was part of the rationale behind management raising now at $2.85. Not only does the p-value have to be 0.0076 or better, but there has to be robust significance across subgroups and even secondary endpoints as well, making a stop at this interim very unlikely. So they were probably better off raising now with the pps appreciated.
The upcoming interim analysis in the September-October timeframe will include the first review of unblinded efficacy data by the DMC.
To be considered statistically significant at this interim look, based on the assumption that exactly 60% of target events are adjudicated and available for assessment by the DMC, the primary efficacy analysis must show that the two-sided p-value for relative risk reduction on the primary endpoint is less than 0.0076 in favor of the Vascepa plus statin treatment arm.
Guidelines for the independent DMC to recommend stopping the study at an interim analysis for overwhelming efficacy require that the study achieve the applicable pre-specified statistical significance threshold for the primary endpoint for that interim analysis, and generate robust efficacy evidence on selected subgroup analyses for the primary endpoint and certain pre-specified secondary outcome measures, to support an overall favorable benefit/risk profile. Given the high thresholds of overwhelming efficacy required prior to a DMC recommending an early stop to a cardiovascular outcomes trial like REDUCE-IT, Amarin continues to expect that the DMC's 60% and 80% interim analyses will each result in a recommendation to continue the REDUCE-IT study as planned....the study's statistical analysis plan now includes more than 30 pre-specified secondary and tertiary endpoints designed to capture multiple potential drug effects in multiple additional sub-populations.
Cheers and good trading
p.s. I ought to point out that none of this is intended as investment advice. And I'm not saying that as some legal disclaimer to protect myself. My motivation behind this is to create a public record that will hopefully span years, and to engage with other investors in fruitful discourse.
These trades reflect my decisions based on my DD, and I'm not seeking to convince anyone to follow my lead. I fully expect you will do whatever the hell you want to.