Another voice that I listen to when it comes to the markets is Doug Kass. I respect Doug as a straight shooter. He has credibility with me because he has skin in the game. I like to hear what Doug has to say, and I add his opinions to the cerebral mix with which I deal. I keep up with Doug's views online. He is a frequent guest of Larry Kudlow on CNBC, but I can't stand to watch Kudlow, even to get to hear Doug.
Doug has posted his latest views on TheStreet.com, and I encourage the reading of his entire piece as I am just touching upon his highlights. Doug speaks with a calm, knowledgeable voice, and he is using broad strokes in this piece to add his voice of reason to the cacophony of market pundits.
Doug says we have entered the lazy, hazy days of summer (my borrowing from Mr. Cole), and he thinks stocks will behave the same. He thinks stocks will tread a narrow range (S&P 850-925) for the summer. He doesn't see much in the way of trading opportunities right now. He thinks Q2 earnings will be good enough to hold the market in his forecasted range.
Come fall and winter, Doug sees better prospects for a tradable rally that should take stocks to new rally highs. He does not see that high holding, and he recommends selling into that rally. Sad for bulls, Doug says in early to mid-2010, the market will double-dip to last March lows. After that, he sees bouncy, lackluster stock action for YEARS--not months--due to higher taxes and higher interests rates, leading to subpar economic growth. Doug adamantly holds to his view that last March's low will hold, and in fact, may never be undercut in a generation.
So, after some short-term slumber for stocks, he sees mid-term opportunity for the nimble, and he sees inconsistent, muted long-term prospects. Doug calls 'em like he sees 'em, and his views deserve consideration.
No positions to disclose.